Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR TO AVIATION TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
307 AM EDT MON AUG 8 2011

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...INCREASED TROUGHING ACROSS HUDSON'S
BAY HAS LED TO THE SUPPRESSION OF THE PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AS
INCREASINGLY FAST ZONAL 500MB FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. WEAK FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN
THIS FLOW HAS SPARKED SEVERAL AREAS OF CONVECTION OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL NIGHTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY. ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES BROUGHT QUITE A BIT OF RAIN TO
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

CURRENTLY...CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND WESTERN TENNESSEE
IS WEAKENING...AND SHOULD BE MUCH DIMINISHED BY SUNRISE...WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORM RELATED CIRRUS EXPECTED ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE NOW OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL MOVE EAST
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS
TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS AND NAM BOTH
SHOW MOISTURE RETURNING THIS AFTERNOON WITH VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONVECTION NOW ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS MAY CONTINUE OVER MISSOURI THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
AND MOVE TOWARDS WESTERN KENTUCKY DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...POSSIBLY ARRIVING ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS. WITH INCREASING FLOW AT 500MB AND
INCREASING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MAY
BECOME ORGANIZED IN THE FORM OF ONE OR MORE LINES OR BOWING
SEGMENTS. THERE IS A RISK FOR SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON OR EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...WHERE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

SO...EXPECT ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS VARYING FROM
THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL RISE BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE
POTENTIAL STORMS ROLL THROUGH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. COVERAGE WILL DEPEND
GREATLY ON ANY PREVIOUS CONVECTION LATE MONDAY...AND THE TRACK OF A
POTENTIAL NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI LATE MONDAY.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY - SUNDAY)...

TUESDAY-THURSDAY...

SIMILAR THINKING TO THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST. A SECOND UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING MAY CAUSE ANOTHER MCS TO BE
PRESENT AROUND DAYBREAK. GFS AND NAM HAVE THE INSTABILITY AXIS
FURTHER SOUTH TO START THE DAY...SO IF THIS MCS IS ONGOING IT WILL
LIKELY BE ACROSS OUR SRN/SWRN CWA TUESDAY MORNING. AS THAT SHORTWAVE
TRACKS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...A TRAILING SFC COOL FRONT WILL
TRAVERSE THE GREAT LAKES/LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THE AFTERNOON TIMING OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION...WITH THE BEST CHC OVER THE BLUEGRASS REGION OF KY SINCE
THOSE AREAS WILL HAVE A LONGER TIME TO DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WILL HAVE HIGH CHC POPS OVER THE EAST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
LOW CHC/SLIGHT CHC WEST. IN THE MORNING THOUGH...WILL HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS SOUTH. SHEAR FOR TUESDAY IS UNIDIRECTIONAL AND WEAKER
THAN ON MONDAY...BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF CAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
THINK THE ATMOSPHERE COULD RECOVER FROM ANY MORNING CONVECTION.
SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...STRAIGHT LINE DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE
MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. WILL END POPS BY MIDNIGHT OVER THE ERN
CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY SHOULD LEAD TO DRY
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO TRACK FROM SRN
MISSOURI INTO WRN TN BY THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS HINT AT THIS
ACTIVITY SQUEEZING INTO OUR SRN/SWRN CWA. KEPT THE DRY FORECAST
GOING FOR NOW BUT LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED TO INSERT POPS IF THIS
MODEL TREND CONTINUES. WILL AT LEAST BUMP UP CLOUD COVER THERE. IF
CONVECTION DOES HAPPEN TO REACH INTO OUR SRN CWA...IT SHOULD NOT
LAST LONG AND THE REST OF THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN
DRY.

AFTER A WARM AND MUGGY TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR BELOW
NORMAL FOR WED-THU. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL AVERAGE OUT IN THE LOW-MID
80S GENERALLY. LOWS MAY STILL BE MILD TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
DROPPING TO THE MID-UPPER 60S...BUT LOW-MID 60S ARE EXPECTED FOR WED
NIGHT AND THU NIGHT LOWS. VERY PLEASANT!

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

NO CHANGES MADE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LONG TERM 07/12Z
GFS/GEFS/EURO SOLUTIONS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN FORECAST ACROSS THE CONUS.  THE THREE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY AS WELL.  SYNOPTIC FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO BE OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL
MID-LEVEL WAVES COMING THROUGH WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW.  FIRST WAVE
LOOKS TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS HAVE A FAIRLY STRONG SFC HIGH CENTERED JUST
EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY...WHICH MAY PREVENT PRECIPITATION FROM
GETTING MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN I-65 OR SO.  FOR NOW HAVE JUST KEPT
20 POPS IN FOR THE WESTERN SECTIONS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
BETTER CHANCES OF CONVECTION LOOK MORE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER WAVE GETS CLOSER AND A SYNOPTIC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.  COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.

HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.  FRIDAY WOULD PROBABLY
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
EXPECTED.  CLOUD COVER/PRECIP SHOULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN ON SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S...WITH SUNDAY SEEING HIGHS IN THE
LOWER-MID 80S.  OVERNIGHT LOWS FRI/SAT MORNING WILL BE IN THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70...THOUGH SUNDAY MORNING COULD SEE SOME LOWER 60S IN
THE NORTH/NORTHWEST SECTIONS AS THE COOLER AIR COMES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

A QUIET OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING PERIOD IS EXPECTED.
CIRRUS FROM CONVECTION IN EXTREME WESTERN KENTUCKY WILL MOVE ACROSS
SDF AND BWG AFTER 06Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF LEX ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AFTER 06Z. VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT OR BELOW 5KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z
MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY UP TO 10KT TOWARDS 18Z MONDAY.

A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION AROUND OR AFTER 19Z
MONDAY. ONE OR MORE ORGANIZED ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON OR EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY ARRIVE IN THE FORM OF LINE SEGMENTS OR BOW ECHOS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS. AT THIS POINT...THESE STORMS LOOK MOST
LIKELY AT BWG AFTER 20Z...WITH LESSER CHANCES AT SDF AND LEX. MVFR
AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY ANY OF THESE STRONGER
STORMS.

THE THREAT OF CONVECTION WILL END BY LATE EVENING. EXPECT SOME
CLEARING AND VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AFTER AROUND 04 TO 06Z.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM........JSD
LONG TERM.........AL
AVIATION..........JSD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
406 AM EDT MON AUG 8 2011

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-090815-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
406 AM EDT MON AUG 8 2011 /306 AM CDT MON AUG 8 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY THIS
EVENING. STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS MAY LEAD
TO ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORM OF LINES OR BOWING
SEGMENTS. DAMAGING WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN MAY
ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS A COOL
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY ANY
THUNDERSTORM AS WELL.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY RETURN TO CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM
AND FRONT APPROACH THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY.
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY INSTANCES OF STRONG WIND
GUSTS...WIND DAMAGE...HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...AND FLOODING TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE.

JSD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
538 AM EDT MON AUG 8 2011

KYZ041-048-081000-
FAYETTE-JESSAMINE-
538 AM EDT MON AUG 8 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...AND 40 MPH WINDS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF LEXINGTON AND FAYETTE COUNTY...

AT 531 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DUNBAR HIGH SCHOOL...AND MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO
40 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  LEXINGTON...
  VETERANS PARK...
  FAYETTE MALL...
  U K ARBORETUM...
  DUNBAR HIGH SCHOOL...
  COLETOWN AND EAST HICKMAN...
  CENTERVILLE AND ATHENS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3794 8432 3793 8434 3792 8433 3792 8435
      3789 8434 3788 8435 3790 8438 3786 8437
      3793 8468 3811 8463 3808 8431
TIME...MOT...LOC 0937Z 282DEG 24KT 3800 8454

JSD