Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
727 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2011

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...

IT/S HOT OUT THERE...BUT NOT QUITE AS HOT AS THIS TIME LAST WEEK.
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES IS EDGING CLOSER TO OUR
REGION EACH DAY. THIS RIDGE HAS HAD SOME EFFECT AT CAPPING STORMS
OVER THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA SO FAR. STILL THINK AREA
WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH OUTFLOW AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL AS WITH AN
ATMOSPHERE WITH 3000-4000 CAPES AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 2
INCHES.

EXPECT STORMS TO DIE OFF IN THE MID TO LATE EVENING TIME FRAME WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THAT SHOULD END THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS WE LOOK TO STAY
AWAY FROM ANY MORE BOUNDARIES DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT. ANY STORMS THAT POP UP TOMORROW SHOULD BE ISOLATED
AIRMASS TYPE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

AS FOR THE HEAT...WILL KEEP TODAY/S HEAT ADVISORY AS IS...EXPIRING
AT 01Z TONIGHT. THEN WILL UPGRADE THE CURRENT WATCH AREA TO AN
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING AND EXPAND THE WARNING AREA A ROW OF COUNTIES
EASTWARD. HEAT INDEX FORECASTS FOR THE NEW WARNING AREA HAVE 4
CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF AT LEAST HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND PERHAPS
SOME INDIVIDUAL DAYS REACHING 110 AS WELL...WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS THE HOTTEST DAYS. WILL ADD A ROW OR TWO OF COUNTIES EAST OF THE
WARNING AREA TO A LONG-TERM HEAT ADVISORY...THIS TIME FOR 4
CONSECTIVE DAYS OF NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA...AGAIN WITH SOME DAYS
REACHING 105 DEGREES. HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP OUT THE FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES FROM A HEADLINE FOR NOW...AS ONLY HAVE PEAK HEAT INDICES
AROUND 100 DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THEY LIKELY WILL NEED A
HEAT ADVISORY ON THURSDAY...BUT IT/S TOO EARLY TO PUT THAT HEADLINE
UP FOR NOW. HAVE COORDINATED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...AND
HEADLINES LOOK GOOD.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY)...

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...

GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A STRONG RIDGE SETTING UP OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE
PUMPING IN ANOTHER HOT AND MOIST AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS LOOKING TO
FLIRT WITH CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES AGAIN. FOR MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY... WENT WITH A MOS GUIDANCE BLEND WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPS
BUT LESS THAN MEX WAS SHOWING...GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 90S ALL
AROUND. EVEN THOUGH THE RIDGE WILL BE SUCH A DOMINANT FEATURE
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WENT WITH MINIMAL POPS BOTH AFTERNOON
PERIODS AS MODELS TRENDED WITH A DIURNAL PRECIP CYCLE. WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG CAP BOTH DAYS...WILL BE DIFFICULT TO SEE MUCH
CONVECTION BUT CANNOT RULE OUT MENTIONABLE POPS COMPLETELY. AS THESE
DAYS APPROACH...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR CONVECTIVE TEMPS
AND ANY TRIGGERING MECHANISMS THAT MAY GENERATE PULSE STORMS...IF
THE STRONG CAP CAN BE BROKEN.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY OVERNIGHT...

THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT ON SATURDAY
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR JUST A BIT HIGHER CHANCE FOR POPS ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...TEMPS DO NOT LOOK TO GET AS HIGH ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN PLACES WHERE PRECIP IS ABLE TO
KICK UP. IT WILL STILL BE HOT AND MOIST ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
BUT WILL CERTAINLY BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
GRAZING THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
LOOKS TO DROP A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION. A
SHORTWAVE IS DEPICTED TO SKIM ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ASSISTING IN
THE CHANCE FOR SCT STORMS TO GENERATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS BEGIN TO
TAKE ON A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY ON MONDAY RESULTING IN HEIGHT
FALLS ALOFT AND A TEMPORARY SUPPRESSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE. AT THE
SURFACE...AN ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL ZONE WILL DROP SE INTO THE OH
VALLEY INTO THE WARM HUMID AIR MASS. THIS SHOULD SPARK SCT TO
PERHAPS NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT (ASSUMING MODEL SOLUTIONS HOLD). AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...LESS
HUMID AND A LITTLE COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY
FOR AT LEAST A TEMPORARY BREAK FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY MID PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD.

RIDGE CENTER ACRS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL NUDGE EASTWARD
THRU THE PERIOD WHILE A FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY FROM CENTRAL
INDIANA INTO CENTRAL OH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NRN/ERN PARTS
OF OUR REGION INCLUDING THE LEX AND SDF VCNTYS WILL BEGIN TO WANE
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...SO WILL KEEP A VCNTY REMARK AT THOSE SITES
THRU 04Z. AFTERWARD MVFR VSBY IN LIGHT FOG EXPECTED AT LEX AND BWG
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

AS UPR LEVEL RIDGE GETS CLOSER...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED
AND CONFINED MAINLY TO THE AFTERNOON ON WED.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY TO 9
     PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ SATURDAY FOR KYZ023>034-038-045-053-
     061>063-070>074.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     KYZ023>032-061-062-070>072.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY TO 9 PM EDT
     /8 PM CDT/ SATURDAY FOR KYZ035>037-039-040-046-047-054-064-
     065-075>077-081.

IN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY TO 9
     PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ SATURDAY FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

SHORT TERM........RJS
LONG TERM.........LG
AVIATION..........DK/11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
350 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2011

KYZ041>043-048-049-055>057-066-067-077-078-081-082-202000-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
350 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2011 /250 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS WELL FREQUENT TO
EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

THE STORMS WILL DIE DOWN BY MIDNIGHT...WHEN PATCHY FOG WILL START
TO DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE NORMALLY FOG-PRONE RIVER VALLEYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

WEDNESDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. HEAT INDICES WILL RISE TO AROUND 100
DEGREES. THIS HEAT MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE HOTTEST AND MOST HUMID DAYS OF THIS
WEEK WILL BE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS IT CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS TO POP-UP ON BOTH DAYS
IN THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY HEAT INDICES WILL STILL REACH INTO THE
LOWER 100S BUT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS OPPRESSIVE AS DAYS BEFORE. FOR
SUNDAY...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE AN EVEN HIGHER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

ON MONDAY...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA WHICH
WILL SPARK SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID
AIR MASS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS HEAVY RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>040-045>047-053-054-061>065-
070>076-202000-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-NELSON KY-
WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-
HART KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-
BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-
350 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2011 /250 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS WELL FREQUENT TO
EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

THE STORMS WILL DIE DOWN BY MIDNIGHT...WHEN PATCHY FOG WILL START
TO DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE NORMALLY FOG-PRONE RIVER VALLEYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST. HEAT INDICES WILL RISE TO THE 100 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. AN EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR POINTS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR...WHEREAS A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
ALONG A LINE FROM CYNTHIANA TO FRANKFORT TO BURKESVILLE.

THE HEAT MAY ALLOW AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO TO POP UP LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE HOTTEST AND MOST HUMID DAYS OF THIS
WEEK WILL BE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS IT CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS TO POP- UP ON BOTH DAYS
IN THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY HEAT INDICES WILL STILL REACH WELL INTO
THE LOWER 100S BUT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS OPPRESSIVE AS DAYS
BEFORE. FOR SUNDAY...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE AN EVEN HIGHER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

ON MONDAY...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA WHICH
WILL SPARK SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID
AIR MASS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS HEAVY RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

RJS/LG/TWF

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
757 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2011

INZ077-200045-
WASHINGTON-
757 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2011

...THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...SMALL
HAIL...AND STRONG WINDS...

AT 754 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES WEST OF SALEM...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 15
MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAIN WITH RAINFALL
RATES OF AROUND TWO INCHES PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS
THAN ONE HALF MILE...SMALL PEA OR DIME SIZE HAIL...AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS OF AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  LIVONIA...
  ROSEBUD...
  HARDINSBURG AND ORGAN SPRINGS...
  FREDERICKSBURG...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING. EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON LOCAL
ROADWAYS. DRIVERS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN ON THEIR HEADLIGHTS IF
ENCOUNTERING HEAVY RAINS.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3872 8616 3842 8613 3843 8631 3872 8631
TIME...MOT...LOC 2357Z 001DEG 15KT 3863 8628

DK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
806 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2011

KYZ042-043-200030-
BOURBON-NICHOLAS-
806 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2011

...THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...SMALL
HAIL...AND STRONG WINDS...

AT 803 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CARLISLE...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAIN WITH RAINFALL
RATES OF AROUND TWO INCHES PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS
THAN ONE HALF MILE...SMALL PEA OR DIME SIZE HAIL...AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS OF AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  CARLISLE...
  WESTON...
  JACKSTOWN AND MOOREFIELD...
  EAST UNION...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING. EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON LOCAL
ROADWAYS. DRIVERS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN ON THEIR HEADLIGHTS IF
ENCOUNTERING HEAVY RAINS.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3821 8395 3819 8412 3838 8419 3846 8410
      3845 8402 3844 8400 3844 8397 3841 8393
      3837 8391 3835 8385 3831 8383
TIME...MOT...LOC 0006Z 346DEG 14KT 3834 8403

DK