Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
853 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

...FORECAST UPDATE...

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
STILL PERSISTING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KY. THESE STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS STORMS INTERACT WITH
AN UNFORCED BUT WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. ONE CLUSTER OF STORMS
ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA HAS FORMED ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO RIVER DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS. EXPECT THAT STORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL DIMINISH
BY LATE EVENING...WITH A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN INDIANA SURVIVING AND APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER BY PRIOR
TO MIDNIGHT. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL STAY BELOW 30%. HOWEVER...A
FEW SELECT ISOLATED LOCATIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST STORMS WILL
EXPERIENCE BRIEF...VERY HEAVY RAIN.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...

CONVECTION HAS FIRED ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO POP UP THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO
DESTABILIZE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOST
LIKELY AREAS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA AS THE NORTH IS STILL RECOVERING FROM COLD POOL OF DYING MCS.
DUE TO THE MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT...IT IS MUCH LESS CERTAIN WHETHER
ANY MORE CONVECTION WILL FIRE NORTH OF I 64 BEFORE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS
IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MODERATE
TO STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING WHERE IT HAS BEEN MOSTLY CLEAR.
MAIN STORM MODE SHOULD BE PULSING IN NATURE...HOWEVER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH DRY AIR AT THE MID LEVELS TO SUGGEST THAT
DAMAGING WINDS WITH COLLAPSING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE WILL
ALSO BE AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT SEVERE HAIL...HOWEVER THIS WOULD REMAIN
LOCALIZED TO ONLY THE MOST VIGOROUS OF UPDRAFTS. SPC DID ISSUE A
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION CONCERNING CONVECTION OVER THE LAKE CUMBERLAND
REGION HOWEVER FEEL THE SEVERE THREAT IS TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT A
WATCH ATTM.

LATER ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BRING IT THROUGH BETWEEN
10 PM EDT AND 4 AM EDT. BEHIND THIS FRONT...EXPECT A COOLER/DRIER
AIRMASS TO TAKE HOLD. HAVE KEPT LINGERING LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE
EAST TOWARD DAWN TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOWER PROGRESSION OF BOUNDARY...
WITH TOMORROW DRY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COMBINES
WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT
FOR SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT LOWER 60S IN SOUTHERN INDIANA...
TO THE MID 60S ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE
COOLER WITH THE MERCURY TOPPING OUT AROUND 80 IN SOUTHERN INDIANA
AND IN THE MID 80S ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY)...

WITH AN INFLUX OF DRIER AIR...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SHUD BE DRY
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACRS THE MS VLY AND SURFACE RIDGE ACRS OUR
REGION. BY MONDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN ADVANCING FROM ERN
AR TO THE MO BOOTHEEL/WRN TN BY TUE EVE...WHILE UPR LEVEL IMPULSES
SLIDE SEWD IN NW FLO. NEED TO INCREASE/ADD POPS MON NIGHT AND TUE
WITH TIME/HEIGHT CROSS-SECTIONS SHOWING SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR SHOWERS.

SHOWERS/TSTMS SHUD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...BUT STILL SCATTERED TUE
NIGHT THRU THU WITH SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AS LONGWAVE
TROF...ACCOMPANIED BY NUMEROUS EMBEDDED IMPULSES...DIGS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. ASSOCIATED DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT
TRAVERSES OUR REGION WED WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THRU WED
NIGHT/EARLY THU. AFTERWARD...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
SHOWER CHC BY SAT AS AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT STALLS IN TN FRI AND
LIFTS NWD INTO KY SAT.

MAX TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE 80S THRU THE WORKWEEK AND REACH NEAR 90
BY SAT...MUCH CLOSER TO EARLY JUN NORMS...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE COMMONWEALTH WILL CONTINUE OUR
RECENT TREND OF VERY LIGHT WINDS. VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 5 MPH THIS
EVENING WILL TREND TO CALM CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
SUNDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...NORTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10KT BY 17Z SUNDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY
WILL DIMINISH AS THEY APPROACH OUR TAF SITES TOWARDS OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE UNORGANIZED NATURE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT...WILL NOT SPECIFICALLY PLACE ANY IN THE TAFS.
HOWEVER...WILL DENOTE INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND AT LEAST THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION IN THE AREA BY PLACING CB IN THE TAFS.

EXPECT VFR FLYING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY OUTSIDE ANY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.

CONVECTIVE CLUSTER HAS CONTINUED TO DIE OFF ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. STILL COULD GET SOME LIGHT RAIN AT SDF BETWEEN
2 AND 4 PM EDT...HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT VIS/CIG TO GO BELOW VFR
THRESHOLD. OTHERWISE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THEN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM RE-DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR BWG WHERE
REMNANT T-STORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COMBINES WITH MOST UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A PREVAILING
THUNDERSTORM GROUP AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER DO HAVE CB GROUP
MENTIONED.

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIE OFF THIS EVENING WHEN FRONT
PASSES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 4 AM EDT FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS SHOULD
VEER WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TO THE NORTHWEST WITH COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS
SETTLING IN. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO DEAL WITH VFR/MVFR STRATOCU BEHIND
THE FRONT TOWARD DAWN...WHICH IS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE.........JSD
SHORT TERM.....BJS
LONG TERM......DK/11
AVIATION.......JSD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
900 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-122000-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
900 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011 /800 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...HOWEVER A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE
EXPECTED...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
ASSOCIATED WARM AND COLD FRONTS TRAVERSE THE OUTLOOK AREA WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BJS/DK

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
939 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

KYZ024-027-028-120200-
BRECKINRIDGE-GRAYSON-HARDIN-
839 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN BRECKINRIDGE COUNTY...

AT 833 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HARDINSBURG...AND MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...SMALL PEA OR DIME SIZE HAIL...
AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  FAIRFIELD AND HUDSON...
  CONSTANTINE AND PIERCE MILL...
  VERTREES AND SOLWAY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE AWARE THAT A GUST FRONT PRECEDING THIS STORM WILL GENERATE STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS WELL BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF ANY RAIN.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3778 8645 3785 8622 3781 8616 3781 8614
      3767 8610 3747 8615 3757 8643
TIME...MOT...LOC 0137Z 269DEG 29KT 3767 8635

JSD