Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
303 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...

EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS TO FIRE OFF FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF HEATING OUT THERE AS THE CWA HAS NO STORMS JUST
YET. TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE WILL GET UP INTO THE 90S...WITH CAPES
ANALYZED BY SPC INTO THE 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE. HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE
WATER IS ANALYZED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
FOR NOW THE DEVELOPMENT IS STAYING JUST TO OUR EAST...BUT EXPECT NEW
STORMS TO FIRE UP ACROSS OUR REGION.

STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE NOW
OVER NORTHWEST MISSOURI ALONG WITH A WEAK LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE OF STORMS OVERNIGHT FOR SOUTH INDIANA AND NORTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY. KEPT THE EXTREME SOUTH CWA DRY FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

REMAINING MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA
SATURDAY SHOULD MAINTAIN THE THREAT FOR STORMS THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE
GONE LIKELY OVER THE NORTHER TO CHANCE DOWN SOUTH. COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND MORE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT SEVERE WEATHER FROM
POPPING UP...BUT THE EASTERN ZONES MAY GET SOME STRONGER WINDS
DEPENDING ON HOW LATE IN THE DAY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEGINS.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT WARM ON LOWS TONIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE
70S EVERYWHERE. THEN HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE
SOUTH...AROUND 90 JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...AND UPPER 80S TO
THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY)...

SATURDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY NIGHT...

THE COOL FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE PUSHING ACROSS CENTRAL KY
AND WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE
POPS ENDING FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT WITH THE BEST CHC OF PRECIP OVER
OUR SERN CWA. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE CELL COULD STILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY SATURDAY EVENING HOURS...BUT THIS THREAT
WILL QUICKLY WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...SKIES WILL START TO
CLEAR OUT AND TEMPS WILL DROP INTO UPPER 50S N TO THE MID 60S S
WHERE CLOUDS MAY STILL REMAIN.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY. VERY
PLEASANT NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE UNDER CLEAR
SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION BEGINNING
ON MONDAY...WITH SHORT-WAVE ENERGY AND POSSIBLY A RESULTANT MCS
ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE INTO OUR FAR WRN CWA MONDAY NIGHT. TRIMMED
BACK THE SLIGHT CHC POPS THAT WERE ALREADY IN THE GRIDS FOR MONDAY
NIGHT BUT REALLY THINK MOST OF THE ACTIVITY COULD STAY TO OUR WEST
AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST. WILL SPREAD POPS FURTHER EAST
INTO TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND OUR CWA FALLS
DOWNSTREAM OF ANY UPSTREAM MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY
REGION. BUT NOT TOO CONFIDENT IN THIS SO ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS.
TEMPS SHOULD INCREASE ABOUT 5 DEGREES FOR HIGHS/LOWS TUES-TUES NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL HELP BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE
OVERHEAD AND WILL PUSH ITS COOL FRONT TOWARDS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THROUGH OUR CWA THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...WITH POPS ENDING FROM NW TO SE BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT. KEPT FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW BUT IT STILL APPEARS THAT
WE COULD CONTINUE THE ACTIVE PATTERN WITH A GENERAL ZONAL/SLIGHTLY
NW QUICK FLOW ALOFT. WILL WAIT FOR BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY BEFORE
INSERTING POPS THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH...COMBINED WITH
WEAKENING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE SHOULD LEAD TO
AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS KLEX AND PERHAPS KSDF AND
KBWG STARTING MID AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSE TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...CANNOT RULE
OUT MORE STORMS AT KSDF SO HAVE LEFT IN A CB GROUP THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

SATURDAY MORNING...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND
BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT
BETTER FOCUS FOR STORMS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SO HAVE VICINITY STORMS
IN THE KSDF AND KLEX TAFS STARTING MID MORNING.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM........RJS
LONG TERM.........AL
AVIATION..........RJS

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