Severe Thunderstorm Warning 361, NWS Louisville, KY

692 
WWUS53 KLMK 280243
SVSLMK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
943 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

KYC085-280252-
/O.CAN.KLMK.SV.W.0361.000000T0000Z-110628T0300Z/
GRAYSON KY-
943 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL GRAYSON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A TORNADO 
WARNING. 

TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL FREE AT...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...
WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3752 8614 3735 8619 3746 8645 3753 8641
TIME...MOT...LOC 0242Z 286DEG 19KT 3746 8626

$$

SCHOETTMER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
958 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

...FORECAST UPDATE...

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO LOWER POPS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
INDIANA/NRN PARTS OF NCNTRL KY AND THE NRN BLUEGRASS REGION OF KY.
KEPT LIKELY POPS OVER SCNTRL KY...ALONG/S OF AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE POOLED IN THE MID 70S.

DEVELOPING CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER CENTRAL KY...DEPICTED WELL
BY OUR LOCAL WRF BETWEEN 00Z-03Z THIS EVE. THIS ACTIVITY SHUD
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS IT SLIDES/DEVELOPS TO THE E/SE
TONIGHT TOWARD GREATER INSTABILITY...WHERE SPCS SWD ADJUSTED SLIGHT
RISK RESIDES.

ALL/MOST ACTIVITY SHUD BE SOUTH/EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY DAWN
TUE AS SYNOPTIC SCALE CDFNT REACHES SOUTHERN INDIANA. SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD ACCOMPANY FRONT...SO LEFT LO CHC POPS FROM
09Z-12Z.

ON A SIDE NOTE...IT IS LIKELY A HEAT BURST OCCURRED IN THE
DAVIESS/SPENCER COUNTY AREA BORDERING OUR NWRN CWA AROUND 3 PM EDT.
A STORM REPORT FROM THERE INDICATED EXTREME HEAT-LIKE A BLOW TORCH-
ALONG WITH HIGH WINDS (50-60 MPH WINDS). THESE WINDS DROPPED ESE
INTO PARTS OF HANCOCK...BRECKINRIDGE...HARDIN...OHIO AND GRAYSON
COUNTIES WHERE THE ELIZABETHTOWN MESONET RECORDED A WIND GUST NEAR
60 MPH AND A COINCIDING RISE IN TEMP/DROP IN DEWPOINT. THIS WAS ALL
BEHIND DECAYING TSTMS.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...

WATCH 566 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT...8 PM CDT FOR MUCH OF
CENTRAL KY AND PERRY COUNTY INDIANA...ALTHOUGH WILL TRY TO TRIM A
FEW COUNTIES BACK WITH THE 4 PM FORECAST ISSUANCE.  MCS CONTINUES TO
PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS TO HAVE LOST SOME OF
ITS PUNCH.  -10 LI/S SIT OVER THE LAKE CUMBERLAND AREA HOWEVER...AND
NEW CELLS HAVE STARTED TO POP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KY.  THIS COULD BE
A SIGN OF RE-GENERATION...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE THE SEVERE T-STORM
WATCH.  AGAIN THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS.

THE REST OF THE EVENING REMAINS IN QUESTION DUE TO THE MCS/S THAT
HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.  A WELL DEFINED WARM FRONT THAT
WAS PRESENT THIS MORNING HAS BEEN LOST IN ALL OF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES THAT HAVE CROSSED OVER THE REGION TODAY.  HOWEVER...A
BOUNDARY DID LIE FROM ABOUT CENTRAL MO TO CENTRAL TN AS OF 19Z WITH
A PARENT SFC LOW OVER NE OKLAHOMA.  ANOTHER SFC LOW WAS LOCATED OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH
WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS AND THEN BACK WESTWARD INTO MISSOURI.  THIS FRONT
IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 6Z TO 12Z OVERNIGHT.
BEFORE THIS FROPA THOUGH...AT LEAST ONE MORE ROUND OF CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO FIRE ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PUSH
ESE THIS EVENING.  DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY FROM THE
CURRENT MCS LAYS OUT MAY INFLUENCE THE TRACK OF THIS NEXT ROUND OF
STORMS.  ALSO...STORM INITIATION LOCATION IS IN QUESTION AS MODELS
POINT TO CENTRAL MO WHILE OBS INDICATE REALLY GOOD CONVERGENCE OVER
CENTRAL IL.  IF STORMS CAN INITIATE FAR ENOUGH EAST OVER ILLINOIS
AND TRAVEL E SLIGHTLY SE...THEN AT LEAST WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FA WILL GET ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS.  IF
STORM INITIATION IS FARTHER WEST...WE MAY MISS A SECOND ROUND OF
STRONG STORMS THIS EVENING ALL TOGETHER.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...ONLY SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THE FRONT AS THE IT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE MILD THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S ALTHOUGH CLEARING OF CLOUDS
MAY HAMPER THE TEMP FORECAST SOMEWHAT.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT - MONDAY)...

MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY PROCEEDING
FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES BY FRIDAY NIGHT...KEEPING US DRY DURING THAT TIME
PERIOD. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL SEE THE MERCURY RISE INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S...WITH 90S LIKELY ON FRIDAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
WEEKEND...PROVIDING US WITH A CHANCE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH
OF THE THREE DAYS SATURDAY THROUGH THE FOURTH. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS
LIKE THE MOST LIKELY DAY FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL BE AROUND THE 90 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

RE-DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED EARLY IN THIS PERIOD...MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL/SCNTRL KY WITH CLUSTERS OF STORMS DROPPING SEWD INTO
TENNESSEE BY 10Z. THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...
EXTENDING FROM N/W ILLINOIS INTO MISSOURI ATTM. FRONT WILL MOVE THRU
THE SDF AND LEX SITES BY LATE MORNING ON TUE AND THRU BWG BY MIDDAY
OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

IN GENERAL...VFR CONDITIONS WIL PREVAIL WITH THE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION OF STORMS IN THE BWG VCNTY LATE TONIGHT. SHOULD A TSTM
CORE MOVE ACRS BWG...WILL AMEND TO A LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORY...AS LOW
AS LIFR IN VSBY. WILL MONITOR FOR THAT POSSIBILITY.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE.........KIRKPATRICK
SHORT TERM.....AMS
LONG TERM......13
AVIATION.......DK/11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1015 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

KYZ027>029-038>041-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082-280800-
GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-
WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-
JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-
MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-
CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-
BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-
CLINTON KY-
1015 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2011 /915 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...A FEW
MAY REACH SEVERE LEVELS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY
THREAT. STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE.

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>026-030>037-042-043-280800-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-
TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-
BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-
1015 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2011 /915 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...SOME
MAY BE STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
OTHER STORMS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS OVERNIGHT.

11

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1021 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

KYZ027-280245-
GRAYSON-
921 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH WEAK ROTATION...DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS...

AT 917 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES WEST OF LEITCHFIELD...AND MOVING EAST AT
20 MPH.

WEAK ROTATION...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH
RAINFALL RATES OF AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO
LESS THAN ONE MILE...SMALL PEA OR DIME SIZE HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS
OF AROUND 35 TO 45 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  LEITCHFIELD...
  BLACK ROCK...
  GRAYSON SPRINGS AND PEONIA...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS...AND AVOID USING THE
TELEPHONE UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY.

&&

LAT...LON 3752 8615 3733 8625 3748 8650 3757 8646
TIME...MOT...LOC 0220Z 290DEG 19KT 3749 8639

SCHOETTMER