Severe Thunderstorm Warning 272, NWS Louisville, KY

654 
WWUS53 KLMK 252248
SVSLMK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
648 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2011

INC037-252300-
/O.CON.KLMK.SV.W.0272.000000T0000Z-110525T2300Z/
DUBOIS IN-
648 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN DUBOIS COUNTY...

AT 645 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR IRELAND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL WAS 
REPORTED JUST SOUTH OF IRELAND WITH THIS STORM.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...

  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHWESTERN DUBOIS COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL FREE AT...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...
WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3837 8708 3851 8708 3851 8707 3852 8700
      3850 8695 3850 8689 3853 8685 3853 8681
      3852 8680 3836 8695
TIME...MOT...LOC 2248Z 211DEG 38KT 3846 8697
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.75IN

$$

EER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
254 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2011

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...

...POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE SQUALL LINE TO AFFECT THE AREA
TONIGHT...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN KANSAS WILL PUSH TOWARDS CENTRAL
INDIANA TONIGHT...BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY COME IN TWO WAVES.

FIRST WAVE: A CONVERGENCE ZONE BASICALLY LOCATED JUST TO OUR NW/W
NEAR THE IL/IN/KY TRI-BORDER WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STRONG TO
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS FROM NOW THROUGH ROUGHLY 7PM EDT. THESE
STORMS THOUGH WILL GENERALLY STAY JUST WEST OF OUR CWA...THOUGH A
FEW COUNTIES SUCH AS DUBOIS/ORANGE/PERRY OR OTHER CLOSE LOCATIONS
COULD BE IMPACTED BY THIS ACTIVITY. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
UNIDIRECTIONAL BUT STRONG...SO A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH GENERALLY LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...THOUGH AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EITHER. AGAIN...THIS ACTIVITY WILL
GENERALLY AFFECT THE IND CWA...BUT COULD SKIRT OUR NWRN CWA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SECOND WAVE: TONIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN SHOW AS A PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY
GENERATES SHOWERS/STORMS MOST LIKELY ACROSS NERN ARKANSAS AND SERN
MISSOURI. A LITTLE WARMING ALOFT HAS THIS AREA QUIET FOR NOW...BUT
CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE NEAR THE MO/AR BORDER BY ROUGHLY 5PM EDT
AND LIKELY IN THE FORM OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. THESE POTENTIAL
STORMS HAVE PROMPTED A HIGH RISK FROM SPC...WHICH ACTUALLY CREEPS
INTO OUR WRN CWA. THESE SUPERCELLS WELL TO OUR WEST WILL HAVE A GOOD
CHANCE AT PRODUCING LONG TRACKED AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY TORNADOES
GIVEN THE LARGE INSTABILITY AND THE DEEP LAYER SPEED/DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR IN PLACE TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT SFC WINDS ACTUALLY
BACK THIS EVENING...INCREASING THE LOW-LEVEL HELICITIES AND BULK
SHEAR. AS THE SUPERCELLS TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST...THEY SHOULD SOMEWHAT
MORPH INTO A SQUALL LINE TONIGHT AND BY THE TIME CONVECTION REACHES
OUR WRN CWA...IT SHOULD BE A MIXED LINE OF BOWING SEGMENTS AND
DISCRETE CELLS. THUS AREAS OVER OUR FAR WRN CWA WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE AT SEEING TORNADIC STORMS MAINLY BETWEEN 7-10PM EDT. AS THIS
LINE PUSHES EAST IT WILL BECOME MORE OF A SQUALL LINE AND LESS
DISCRETE CELLS. THUS THE THREAT WILL SWITCH FROM A SUPERCELL
(TORNADOES/HAIL) MODE TO A SQUALL LINE (DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED
TORNADOES) MODE CLOSER TO I-65. THIS LINE SHOULD REACH AN SDF TO BWG
LINE ROUGHLY BY THE 9-11PM EDT TIME FRAME. AREAS EAST OF I-65 WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT FROM THE SQUALL LINE
FROM 11PM-MIDNIGHT AND LATER AS IT TRACKS EAST INTO THE BLUEGRASS.

CURRENTLY...A PDS TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
UNTIL 10 PM EDT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN
PLACE FOR A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR FAR WRN CWA. LOOKING FOR
ANY KIND OF BUST POTENTIAL...BUT DO NOT REALLY SEE ONE.

FOR TOMORROW...THE MAIN SQ LINE COULD BE ONGOING OVER FAR ERN CWA IN
THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER THIS IS THE PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY...AND
THE LOW PRESSURE/S COLD FRONT WILL STILL PUSH THROUGH OUR CWA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON-EVENING. SO THERE WILL STILL EXIST A THREAT FOR
AFTERNOON SEVERE WEATHER ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND MAINLY EAST OF
I-65 THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

CONCERNING TEMPS...TONIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOW
70S. RAINFALL/CLOUDS WILL GREATLY AFFECT TEMPS TOMORROW...SO THINK
WILL GO MODESTLY WITH THURSDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...

MOST OF THE ATTENTION TODAY HAS BEEN SPENT ON THE SHORT TERM SO THIS
DISCUSSION WILL BE NECESSARILY SHORT.

ONCE THE THURSDAY STORM SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY
EVENING THE WEATHER WILL BE MUCH QUIETER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES SATURDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID
WEEK NEXT WEEK. WE COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE SLIDES BY TO OUR NORTH...AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
WEAKENS A BIT. OTHERWISE HOWEVER THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN MOSLTY
HOT AND DRY WEATHER.

AFTER A COOL POST-FRONTAL DAY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S...90S WILL ENVELOP THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL CONVECTION
CAN DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR IN WHICH OUR TERMINALS ARE EMBEDDED.
SDF AND PERHAPS BWG WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING POST-19Z
TSRA BUT WILL KEEP VCTS MENTION INSTEAD OF A TEMPO OR PREVAILING
CAT. MAY JUST HAVE VCSH/CB AT BWG. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE
AT ALL TERMINALS. WITH ANY AFTERNOON T-STORMS...SOME COULD BE SEVERE
AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBYS WILL OCCUR. WILL WAIT TIL CONVECTION
INITIATES BEFORE INCLUDING A SEVERE MENTION IN THE TAFS.

CIGS COULD DROP TO MVFR LATER THIS EVENING AS MORE WIDESPREAD/BETTER
CHC FOR STORMS DEVELOPS TONIGHT ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THESE
STORMS SHOULD FORM A SQUALL LINE AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. FOR THE TAFS...WILL INCLUDE
THE TSRA IN A PREVAIL CAT FOR SDF AND BWG...BUT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
SUB-SEVERE FOR NOW. BEST TIMING WILL BE AFTER 00Z FOR THE MAIN LINE
OF CONVECTION FOR BOTH SDF AND BWG. THIS SQ LINE WILL LIKELY NOT
REACH LEX UNTIL CLOSER TO 06Z OR EVEN LATER.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM........AL
LONG TERM.........13
AVIATION..........AL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
348 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2011

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-262000-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
348 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2011 /248 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT...9PM CDT.

A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING POTENT
STORM SYSTEM WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WEST OF I-65 AND ANY
OF THESE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MORE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFTER 8PM EDT WEST OF I-65 AND AFTER
MIDNIGHT EDT EAST OF I-65. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

SINCE THESE SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE OUTLOOK AREA
AT NIGHT...WE HIGHLY ENCOURAGE YOU TO SET YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO
TO ALERT MODE SO THAT YOU CAN BE AWAKENED IN THE EVENT THAT A
WARNING IS ISSUED WHILE YOU ARE ASLEEP. MANY SEVERE WEATHER
FATALITIES OCCUR LATE AT NIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF I-65.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A WEAK SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. AT THIS TIME
SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS UNLIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM.

HOT WEATHER WILL MOVE IN FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HEAT INDEX
READINGS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S...AND ON TUESDAY MAY SURPASS 100 DEGREES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER REPORTS WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

AL/13