Severe Thunderstorm Warning 271, NWS Louisville, KY

502 
WWUS53 KLMK 241854
SVSLMK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
154 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

KYC053-057-169-171-207-241915-
/O.CON.KLMK.SV.W.0271.000000T0000Z-110524T1915Z/
RUSSELL KY-METCALFE KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-MONROE KY-
154 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN MONROE...NORTHERN CLINTON...CUMBERLAND...
SOUTHEASTERN METCALFE AND SOUTHERN RUSSELL COUNTIES...

AT 151 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. AT 145 PH CDT...54 MPH WINDS HAVE BEEN MEASURED IN 
THE BURKESVILLE AREA OF CUMBERLAND COUNTY. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 
NEAR WILLIS CREEK...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO 
ACCOMPANY THESE DAMAGING WINDS.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  BURKESVILLE...
  SEVENTY SIX AND IDA...
  CUMBERLAND CITY AND MARLOW...
  NARVEL AND NORA...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL FREE AT...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...
WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3670 8562 3691 8562 3694 8499 3690 8499
      3686 8507 3684 8507 3684 8505 3683 8504
      3677 8501 3669 8502
TIME...MOT...LOC 1852Z 270DEG 31KT 3680 8523
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 0.88IN

$$

MP

170 
WWUS53 KLMK 241906
SVSLMK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
306 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2011

KYC169-171-241916-
/O.CAN.KLMK.SV.W.0271.000000T0000Z-110524T1915Z/
METCALFE KY-MONROE KY-
206 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN MONROE AND
SOUTHEASTERN METCALFE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL FREE AT...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...
WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3670 8535 3692 8534 3694 8499 3690 8499
      3686 8507 3684 8507 3684 8505 3683 8504
      3677 8501 3669 8502
TIME...MOT...LOC 1906Z 270DEG 31KT 3680 8510

$$

KYC053-057-207-241915-
/O.CON.KLMK.SV.W.0271.000000T0000Z-110524T1915Z/
RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
206 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN CLINTON...EASTERN CUMBERLAND AND SOUTHERN RUSSELL
COUNTIES...

AT 200 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR AARON...MOVING EAST AT
40 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE DAMAGING WINDS.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...

  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EASTERN CUMBERLAND...NORTHERN CLINTON AND
  SOUTHERN RUSSELL COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL FREE AT...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...
WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3670 8535 3692 8534 3694 8499 3690 8499
      3686 8507 3684 8507 3684 8505 3683 8504
      3677 8501 3669 8502
TIME...MOT...LOC 1906Z 270DEG 31KT 3680 8510
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 0.88IN

$$

MP

948 
WWUS53 KLMK 241916
SVSLMK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
216 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

KYC053-057-207-241925-
/O.EXP.KLMK.SV.W.0271.000000T0000Z-110524T1915Z/
RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
216 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN CLINTON...EASTERN
CUMBERLAND AND SOUTHERN RUSSELL COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...

THE STORMS THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED...ARE NO LONGER 
SEVERE...AND CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA. HOWEVER STORMS 
REMAIN IN THE AREA. THESE ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PERIODS OF HEAVY 
RAIN...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH.

TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL FREE AT...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...
WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3670 8535 3692 8534 3694 8499 3690 8499
      3686 8507 3684 8507 3684 8505 3683 8504
      3677 8501 3669 8502
TIME...MOT...LOC 1906Z 270DEG 31KT 3680 8510

$$

MP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
118 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2011

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ENHANCING STORMS OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS WILL
PUSH SLOWLY EAST THIS MORNING. EXPECT A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO DEVELOP IN THE MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
ALREADY SEEING SOME DEVELOP CREEP IN FROM EXTREME WESTERN KENTUCKY.
NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AS EXPECT ELEVATED
CONVECTION. ANOTHER DIFFERENCE WITH YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME IS THE
WIND SHEAR PROFILE. WINDS AT 2 KFT AREAWIDE YESTERDAY WERE 50
KNOTS...WHEREAS THIS MORNING WINDS RANGE FROM 25 KNOTS AT KVWX TO 40
KNOTS AT KHPX.

BEST ESTIMATE AT THIS POINT IS THAT CONVECTION WILL END BY LATE
MORNING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES IN. THEN WITH DAYTIME HEATING
BRINGING TEMPS BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S SHOULD SEE SCATTERED
STORMS DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE IN THE THE MID EVENING
HOURS. ATMOSPHERIC SOUNDING SHOULD BE PRETTY UNSTABLE WITH THIS
HEATING...WITH CAPES LIKELY JUMPING INTO THE 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE.
THUS LOOKING AT ANOTHER THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. SHEAR NOT
OVERLY STRONG...SO TORNADO THREAT IS LOW HERE.

OVERNIGHT ANOTHER SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATES AROUND WHAT WILL BE AN
UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL KANSAS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT
ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT RAIN AND POSSIBLE
EMBEDDED STORMS. AGAIN SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE SEVERE POTENTIAL
WITH THESE STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH WITH LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY - MONDAY)...

A VIGOROUS CYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE OUR UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS EXPECTED. SOME OF THESE
STORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS MAY BECOME SEVERE.

LOW PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY WILL BOTTOM OUT BELOW 995MB OVER KANSAS
LATE WEDNESDAY AS A SEASONABLY STRONG JET BEGINS TO WRAP AROUND THE
EASTERN SIDE OF A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THIS OCCLUDED SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO FILL AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES EAST. BY LATE THURSDAY..THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS SOUTHERN
INDIANA AS A WEAKENING OPEN 500MB WAVE.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN OHIO AND SOUTHERN INDIANA
DURING THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
MOISTURE WILL BRING MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. FEEL THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY WITH MORE ISOLATED
STORMS NEAR TENNESSEE.

WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS THE COMMONWEALTH
WILL LIE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE BY NOW OCCLUDED CYCLONE
FORECAST OVER WESTERN MISSOURI. ALTHOUGH VERY STRONG INSTABILITY
WILL DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS THE GREATER LIFT WILL REMAIN TO OUR
WEST CLOSER TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND THE FRONT. EXPECT THAT
STORMS CHANCES WILL INCREASE QUITE A BIT BY LATE EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY...DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING MID
LEVEL WINDS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
MOST LIKELY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.

PERIODS OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING
OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHES. WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AVAILABLE
AND THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS
LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

EXPECT FRIDAY TO DRY OUR AS ZONAL FLOW BRIEFLY DEVELOPS.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL COOL DOWN INTO THE 70S ALONG THE BACK SIDE
OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH.

A FAST MOVING LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL SCOOT ACROSS THE GREAT
WESTERN LAKES SATURDAY. SCATTERED STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

THE ECMWF AND THE GFS BOTH ADVERTISE A STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPING BY
MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS WILL BRING 500MB
HEIGHTS MORE TYPICAL OF MID-SUMMER ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH MARKEDLY
AFTER SUNDAY MORNING. HIGHS COULD EASILY MOVE INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

A CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOPED IN THE BWG VICINITY LATE THIS MORNING
AND WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD NOT BE
A FACTOR AT THE TAF SITES. LITTLE IF ANY REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
BEHIND THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS.

TONIGHT WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ALLOWING US TO
HAVE A QUIET NIGHT. SOME PATCHY MVFR BR WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS
DAWN ESPECIALLY AT BWG AND LEX.

ON WEDNESDAY A SPOKE OF VORTICITY WILL SPIRAL AROUND A STRONG UPPER
LOW OVER KANSAS AND MAY BRING A WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA IN THE MORNING...PRIMARILY AT SDF. A FEW STORMS COULD
REDEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON BUT THE MAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TO
OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE KANSAS LOW.

WIND MAY BECOME A FACTOR WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS GUST ABOVE
20KT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PLAINS STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM........RJS
LONG TERM.........JSD
AVIATION..........13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1133 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2011

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-251545-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
1133 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2011 /1033 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
MORNING CLOUDS CLEAR OUT AND THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE.
SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN
THREAT AND LARGE HAIL A SECONDARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG INSTABILITY AND STRENGTHENING
WINDS ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE WEDNESDAY
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.

REPEATED EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL AND A THREAT FOR MINOR FLOODING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

13