Severe Thunderstorm Warning 262, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
612 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

...MESOSCALE UPDATE...

A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BOWLING
GREEN REGION UNTIL 11 PM CDT. A LINE OF SEVERE STORMS HAS BEEN
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON WAS WAS ABOUT TO
ENTER THE LOWER OHO VALLEY AT 22Z. INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS LINE OF
STORMS IS SUFFICIENT FOR THE LINE TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY...PRIMARILY WEST OF INTERSTATE 65. STRONG WINDS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE THREATS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO THE NORTH CONTINUES UNTIL MIDNIGHT
EDT. THE ATMOSPHERE EAST OF I-65 LOOKS LESS UNSTABLE THAN WHAT THE
STORMS HAD TO PLAY WITH EARLIER OVER SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST
KENTUCKY. NEVERTHELESS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAN STILL BE EXPECTED
THIS EVENING IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA. WIND GUSTS
TO 60 MPH AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE THREATS.

IN ADDITION TO SEVERE WEATHER...EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN HAS BEEN
FALLING ON SOUTHERN INDIANA AS STORMS TRAIN THROUGH THE REGION. WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...

THE IMMEDIATE CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IS THE COMPLEX OF STORMS
OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. THESE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST INTO INDIANA AND KENTUCKY. WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE FORECAST AREA CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. THIS
WILL SUSTAIN EXISTING STORMS AND POSSIBLY ALLOW THEM TO STRENGTHEN
AS THEY TRACK EAST. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY NEED TO BE
ISSUED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE
STORMS WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

THE COMPLEX OF STORMS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY 03Z OR SO. WE
WILL SEE ANOTHER BREAK IN THE STORMS UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WHEN A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. ADDITIONALLY A
FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH...ENDING UP ACROSS
SOUTHERN INDIANA BY TOMORROW EVENING. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL
HELP TO ENHANCE CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND POSSIBLY SOME LARGE HAIL.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S TONIGHT AND HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE MID 80S AGAIN.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT - MONDAY)...

TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...

POP CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD AS TROUGHING OVER
THE ROCKIES GENERATES A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT OUR
AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SFC LOW WILL GENERATE
OVER KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT...AND ITS WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND EASTWARD
PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS OUR CWA. WITH SLIGHT RIDGING OVER THE GULF
STATES...THINK THE WARM FRONT SHOULD STAY OVER OUR NWRN/NRN CWA.
HOWEVER SINCE IT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA...WILL HAVE
LOW CHC POPS OVER THE SOUTH WITH HIGH CHC POPS OVER THE NRN/NWRN CWA
TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A FEW OF THESE ELEVATED STORMS COULD
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND CERTAINLY HEAVY RAINFALL/DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

BY WEDNESDAY...OUR CWA WILL BE WARM SECTORED AS THE LOW PRESSURE/S
COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION. SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING POPS
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. HAVE
LIKELY POPS IN THE GRIDS FROM WED NIGHT OVER THE WEST...THURSDAY
EVERYWHERE AND THRS NIGHT OVER THE EAST AS THE FRONT TRACKS FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW WILL BECOME
VERTICALLY STACKED AND FILL IN...THERE IS STILL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
AND DEEPER WIND SHEAR THAT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR
IF SOME ORGANIZATION OCCURS...AND AT THIS TIME THINKING THE BEST
CHANCE WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHERE DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE
MAIN THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE STORM.

HAVE POPS ENDING ON BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ON FRIDAY...JUST
BEFORE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT FROM THE WEST.
WILL KEEP LOW CHC POPS OVER THE WRN CWA FRIDAY NIGHT BUT THIS COULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY.

TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND CONDITIONS
WILL BE MUGGY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH AMPLE RAINFALL AND CLOUDS
AROUND THURSDAY/FRIDAY...TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S.

SATURDAY-MEMORIAL DAY...

AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY APPROACH ON SATURDAY IN A NW FLOW
ALOFT. THIS SHUD AGAIN PROVIDE US WITH ANOTHER QUICK PUNCH OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER...SIGNS OF A STRONG RIDGE
OVERHEAD FROM LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE ACTUAL HOLIDAY WOULD BE A
NICE WAY TO END THIS ACTIVE PATTERN. KEPT SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY
NIGHT DRY. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND AVERAGE OR BELOW FOR SUNDAY BUT WILL
MODERATE QUICKLY IF THE RIDGE DEVELOPS AS STRONGLY AS THE OPS GFS IS
HINTING. WENT BELOW 00Z MEX GUIDANCE CLOSER TO 12Z GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS/LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

CLEARING THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON IS HELPING TO DESTABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE ONCE AGAIN.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY AFTER 20Z. WILL KEEP
ONLY A CB GROUP IN FOR THE TERMINALS RIGHT NOW BUT WILL LIKELY HAVE
TO AMEND WHEN THUNDERSTORMS DO BEGIN TO FIRE. THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH ANOTHER BREAK IN
PRECIP BEFORE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY TOMORROW.

GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RELAX TONIGHT AFTER THE STORMS MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA AND THE SUN GOES DOWN. HOWEVER...THINK WITH SHOWERS
AND STORMS MOVING BACK IN DURING THE MORNING HOURS FOG WILL NOT BE
MUCH OF A PROBLEM. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE......13
SHORT TERM.....EER
LONG TERM......AL
AVIATION.......EER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
348 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-242000-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
348 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011 /248 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO
SEVERE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
THESE STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. MORE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING...THOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL BEING POSSIBLE.

MORE ORGANIZED STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM
TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL. RAINFALL THIS WEEK WILL
AVERAGE 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY STRONG WIND GUSTS...WIND DAMAGE...AND
HAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
LOUISVILLE.

EER/AL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
622 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     TSTM WND GST     NEW ALBANY              38.30N  85.83W
05/23/2011  E70 MPH          FLOYD              IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1100778

RL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
624 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0621 PM     TSTM WND GST     JEFFERSONVILLE          38.30N  85.73W
05/23/2011  E60 MPH          CLARK              IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1100779

RL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
627 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0623 PM     HAIL             BARDSTOWN               37.81N  85.46W
05/23/2011  E0.88 INCH       NELSON             KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1100780

RL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
628 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0538 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MARENGO                 38.37N  86.34W
05/23/2011                   CRAWFORD           IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN THE MARENGO AREA

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1100781

RL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
629 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0618 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 N LOUISVILLE          38.25N  85.74W
05/23/2011  E70 MPH          JEFFERSON          KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            70 MILE AN HOUR WIND GUSTS IN DOWNTOWN LOUISVILLE

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1100782

RL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
629 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

KYZ029-030-034-038-039-045-232300-
ANDERSON-BULLITT-JEFFERSON-NELSON-SHELBY-SPENCER-
629 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...PENNY
SIZE HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS...

AT 624 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TAYLORSVILLE...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES
OF AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
MILE...PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH...ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  TAYLORSVILLE...
  SHELBYVILLE...
  WATERFORD AND WHITFIELD...
  YODER AND NORMANDY...
  RIVALS AND VEECH...
  OLIVE BRANCH AND FINCHVILLE...

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 64 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
28 AND 38.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3809 8500 3781 8538 3801 8568 3830 8542
      3831 8536
TIME...MOT...LOC 2229Z 225DEG 35KT 3800 8544

MP