Alert archive / Kentucky / River Flood Warnings in 2011

River Flood Warning 37, NWS Louisville, KY

April 12, 2011Hardin County, Nelson County, Kentucky

NWS Louisville, KY issued this river flood warning at Apr 12, 2011, 10:56 AM EDT for Hardin County, Nelson County, Kentucky. It took effect at Apr 12, 2011, 6:00 PM EDT. It was in force for 6 days.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Apr 12, 2011, 10:56 AM EDT (14:56 UTC)
In effect from
Apr 12, 2011, 6:00 PM EDT
Expired
Apr 18, 2011, 10:00 AM EDT
In force
6 days
Issued by
NWS Louisville, KY
Flood severity
Minor

Counties Hardin County, KY, Nelson County, KY

The radar

The Louisville radar (KLVX), 32 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 14:59 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Rolling Fork River near Boston (BSNK2). The gauge peaked at 44.17 ft at Apr 14, 2011, 3:00 PM EDT.

actionminormoderatemajor20304004/1204/1304/1404/1504/1604/1704/1804/19
Action stage
33 ft
Minor stage
35 ft
Moderate stage
42 ft
Major stage
45 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 03301500, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

531 
WGUS43 KLMK 121456
FLWLMK
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY 
1056 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE KY HAS ISSUED A FLOOD 
WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN KENTUCKY... 

  ROLLING FORK RIVER NEAR BOSTON

AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN KENTUCKY...HARDIN...NELSON.

.UP TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE 18 HOURS IS CAUSING THE RIVER
TO RISE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER ATTEMPT TO CROSS ANY FLOODING ROADS. THIS IS 
ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS AT NIGHT. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR COMMERCIAL BROADCASTS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. IF YOU ARE AFFECTED
BY THESE CRESTS TAKE ANY NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS.
 
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT 
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=LMK (ALL LOWER CASE).

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED TONIGHT.

&&

KYC093-179-130256-
/O.NEW.KLMK.FL.W.0037.110412T2200Z-110414T2100Z/
/BSNK2.1.ER.110412T2200Z.110413T1800Z.110414T1500Z.NO/
1056 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE KY HAS ISSUED A 

* FLOOD WARNING FOR 
  THE ROLLING FORK RIVER NEAR BOSTON.
* FROM THIS EVENING TO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 10:30 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 33.1 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 35.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE TO 
  RISE TO NEAR 39.3 FEET BY WEDNESDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 40.0 FEET...WATER BEGINS TO CROSS LOW SPOTS ON SOME 
  COUNTY ROADS. SOME HOMES IN FLOOD PLAIN ARE CUTOFF.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 39.5  
  FEET ON SEP 25 2006.

$$
CMC
12 follow-up statements
393 
WGUS83 KLMK 130253
FLSLMK
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 
1053 PM EDT TUE APR 12 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
KENTUCKY...
 
  ROLLING FORK RIVER NEAR BOSTON 
 
AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN KENTUCKY...HARDIN...NELSON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER ATTEMPT TO CROSS ANY FLOODING ROADS. THIS IS 
ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS AT NIGHT. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR COMMERCIAL BROADCASTS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. IF YOU ARE AFFECTED
BY THESE CRESTS TAKE ANY NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS.
 
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT 
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=LMK (ALL LOWER CASE).

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

KYC093-179-131453-
/O.EXT.KLMK.FL.W.0037.000000T0000Z-110416T0300Z/
/BSNK2.1.ER.110412T1910Z.110414T0600Z.110415T2100Z.NO/
1053 PM EDT TUE APR 12 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ROLLING FORK RIVER NEAR BOSTON.
* AT 10:30 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 37.6 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 35.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 41.0 FEET BY 
  EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 40.0 FEET...WATER BEGINS TO CROSS LOW SPOTS ON SOME 
  COUNTY ROADS. SOME HOMES IN FLOOD PLAIN ARE CUTOFF.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 40.3  
  FEET ON MAY 29 2004.

$$
569 
WGUS83 KLMK 131432
FLSLMK
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 
1032 AM EDT WED APR 13 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
KENTUCKY...
 
  STONER CREEK AT PARIS 
  SOUTH FORK LICKING RIVER AT CYNTHIANA 
  LICKING RIVER AT BLUE LICKS SPRING 
  ROLLING FORK RIVER NEAR BOSTON 
 
AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN KENTUCKY...BOURBON...HARDIN...
HARRISON...NELSON...NICHOLAS...ROBERTSON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER ATTEMPT TO CROSS ANY FLOODING ROADS. THIS IS 
ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS AT NIGHT. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR COMMERCIAL BROADCASTS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. IF YOU ARE AFFECTED
BY THESE CRESTS TAKE ANY NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS.
 
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT 
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=LMK (ALL LOWER CASE).

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED THIS EVENING.

&&

KYC017-140232-
/O.EXT.KLMK.FL.W.0030.000000T0000Z-110414T1124Z/
/PRSK2.2.ER.110412T0754Z.110413T0359Z.110414T0524Z.NO/
1032 AM EDT WED APR 13 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE STONER CREEK AT PARIS.
* AT  9 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 23.3 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  LATE TONIGHT.
* IMPACT...AT 22.0 FEET...WATER ENTERS HOMES ALONG TAYLOR, CHAMBERS, 
  STONER AVENUES AND CATHERINE STREET.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 23.1  
  FEET ON MAY 31 2004.

$$

KYC097-140100-
/O.EXT.KLMK.FL.W.0031.000000T0000Z-110414T0100Z/
/CYNK2.1.ER.110412T1931Z.110413T1315Z.110413T1900Z.NO/
1032 AM EDT WED APR 13 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SOUTH FORK LICKING RIVER AT CYNTHIANA.
* AT  9:30 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 21.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  LATE THIS EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 22.0 FEET...POPLAR STREET IS CLOSED. SOME HOMES ON WEST 
  SIDE ARE EVACUATED.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 21.9  
  FEET ON MAY 4 2010.

$$

KYC181-201-140232-
/O.EXT.KLMK.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-110415T0100Z/
/BLSK2.1.ER.110412T1010Z.110413T0515Z.110414T1900Z.NO/
1032 AM EDT WED APR 13 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE LICKING RIVER AT BLUE LICKS SPRING.
* AT 10:00 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 34.3 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 25.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 34.6  
  FEET ON MAR 21 2002.

$$

KYC093-179-140232-
/O.EXT.KLMK.FL.W.0037.000000T0000Z-110417T0100Z/
/BSNK2.2.ER.110412T1910Z.110414T1200Z.110416T1900Z.NO/
1032 AM EDT WED APR 13 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ROLLING FORK RIVER NEAR BOSTON.
* AT  9:30 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 40.3 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 35.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 42.6 FEET BY 
  THURSDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY 
  AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 43.0 FEET...FLOODWALL BEGINS CLOSING IN LEBANON 
  JUNCTION.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 42.2  
  FEET ON FEB 18 2003.

$$
RL
210 
WGUS83 KLMK 140058
FLSLMK
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 
858 PM EDT WED APR 13 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
KENTUCKY...
 
  STONER CREEK AT PARIS 
  SOUTH FORK LICKING RIVER AT CYNTHIANA 
 
AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN KENTUCKY...BOURBON...HARRISON.

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
KENTUCKY...

  LICKING RIVER AT BLUE LICKS SPRING 
  ROLLING FORK RIVER NEAR BOSTON 
 
AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN KENTUCKY...HARDIN...NELSON...
NICHOLAS...ROBERTSON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER ATTEMPT TO CROSS ANY FLOODING ROADS. THIS IS 
ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS AT NIGHT. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR COMMERCIAL BROADCASTS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. IF YOU ARE AFFECTED
BY THESE CRESTS TAKE ANY NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS.
 
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT 
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=LMK (ALL LOWER CASE).

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

KYC017-141458-
/O.EXT.KLMK.FL.W.0030.000000T0000Z-110414T1524Z/
/PRSK2.2.ER.110412T0754Z.110413T0359Z.110414T0524Z.NO/
858 PM EDT WED APR 13 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE STONER CREEK AT PARIS.
* AT  7:06 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 20.0 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY.

$$

KYC097-141458-
/O.EXT.KLMK.FL.W.0031.000000T0000Z-110414T2032Z/
/CYNK2.1.ER.110412T1931Z.110413T1530Z.110414T1432Z.NO/
858 PM EDT WED APR 13 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SOUTH FORK LICKING RIVER AT CYNTHIANA.
* AT  8:30 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 21.5 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  THURSDAY LATE MORNING.

$$

KYC181-201-141458-
/O.CON.KLMK.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-110415T0100Z/
/BLSK2.1.ER.110412T1010Z.110413T0515Z.110414T1900Z.NO/
858 PM EDT WED APR 13 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE LICKING RIVER AT BLUE LICKS SPRING.
* AT  8:00 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 32.7 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 25.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

KYC093-179-141458-
/O.CON.KLMK.FL.W.0037.000000T0000Z-110417T0100Z/
/BSNK2.2.ER.110412T1910Z.110414T1200Z.110416T1900Z.NO/
858 PM EDT WED APR 13 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ROLLING FORK RIVER NEAR BOSTON.
* AT  8:30 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 42.3 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 35.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 42.6 FEET BY 
  THURSDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY 
  AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 43.0 FEET...FLOODWALL BEGINS CLOSING IN LEBANON 
  JUNCTION.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 42.2  
  FEET ON FEB 18 2003.

$$
634 
WGUS83 KLMK 141537
FLSLMK
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 
1137 AM EDT THU APR 14 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
KENTUCKY...
 
  LICKING RIVER AT BLUE LICKS SPRING 
  ROLLING FORK RIVER NEAR BOSTON 
 
AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN KENTUCKY...HARDIN...NELSON...
NICHOLAS...ROBERTSON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER ATTEMPT TO CROSS ANY FLOODING ROADS. THIS IS 
ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS AT NIGHT. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR COMMERCIAL BROADCASTS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. IF YOU ARE AFFECTED
BY THESE CRESTS TAKE ANY NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS.
 
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT 
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=LMK (ALL LOWER CASE).

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED TONIGHT.

&&

KYC181-201-150337-
/O.EXT.KLMK.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-110416T2300Z/
/BLSK2.1.ER.110412T1010Z.110413T0515Z.110416T1700Z.NO/
1137 AM EDT THU APR 14 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE LICKING RIVER AT BLUE LICKS SPRING.
* AT 11:00 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 31.1 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 25.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY EARLY 
  AFTERNOON.

$$

KYC093-179-150336-
/O.EXT.KLMK.FL.W.0037.000000T0000Z-110416T1747Z/
/BSNK2.2.ER.110412T1910Z.110415T0000Z.110416T1147Z.NO/
1137 AM EDT THU APR 14 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ROLLING FORK RIVER NEAR BOSTON.
* AT 10:30 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 44.0 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 35.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS NEAR CREST. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW
  FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 45.0 FEET...HOUSES IN LOW AREAS IN BOSTON FLOOD.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 44.0  
  FEET ON MAR 12 1994.

$$
CMC
129 
WGUS83 KLMK 150225
FLSLMK
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 
1025 PM EDT THU APR 14 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
KENTUCKY...

  LICKING RIVER AT BLUE LICKS SPRING 
  ROLLING FORK RIVER NEAR BOSTON 
 
AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN KENTUCKY...HARDIN...NELSON...
NICHOLAS...ROBERTSON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER ATTEMPT TO CROSS ANY FLOODING ROADS. THIS IS 
ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS AT NIGHT. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR COMMERCIAL BROADCASTS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. IF YOU ARE AFFECTED
BY THESE CRESTS TAKE ANY NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS.
 
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT 
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=LMK (ALL LOWER CASE).

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

KYC181-201-151625-
/O.CON.KLMK.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-110416T2300Z/
/BLSK2.1.ER.110412T1010Z.110413T0515Z.110416T1700Z.NO/
1025 PM EDT THU APR 14 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE LICKING RIVER AT BLUE LICKS SPRING.
* AT 10:00 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 29.4 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 25.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE 
  SATURDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.

$$

KYC093-179-151625-
/O.CON.KLMK.FL.W.0037.000000T0000Z-110416T1747Z/
/BSNK2.2.ER.110412T1910Z.110414T2000Z.110416T1147Z.NO/
1025 PM EDT THU APR 14 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ROLLING FORK RIVER NEAR BOSTON.
* AT  9:30 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 43.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 35.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  SATURDAY MORNING.

$$
759 
WGUS83 KLMK 151435
FLSLMK
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 
1035 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
KENTUCKY...
 
  LICKING RIVER AT BLUE LICKS SPRING
 
AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN KENTUCKY...NICHOLAS...ROBERTSON.

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
KENTUCKY...
 
  ROLLING FORK RIVER NEAR BOSTON 
 
AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN KENTUCKY...HARDIN...NELSON.

.ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
SLOW DOWN THE FALL OF THE RIVERS BUT NO NEW FLOODING IS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER ATTEMPT TO CROSS ANY FLOODING ROADS. THIS IS 
ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS AT NIGHT. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR COMMERCIAL BROADCASTS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. IF YOU ARE AFFECTED
BY THESE CRESTS TAKE ANY NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS.
 
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT 
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=LMK (ALL LOWER CASE).

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED TONIGHT.

&&

KYC181-201-151505-
/O.CAN.KLMK.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-110415T1800Z/
/BLSK2.1.ER.110412T1010Z.110413T0515Z.110415T1800Z.NO/
1035 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE LICKING RIVER AT BLUE LICKS SPRING.
* AT 10:00 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 25.1 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 25.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  NOON.

$$

KYC093-179-160235-
/O.EXT.KLMK.FL.W.0037.000000T0000Z-110417T0600Z/
/BSNK2.2.ER.110412T1910Z.110414T2000Z.110417T0000Z.NO/
1035 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ROLLING FORK RIVER NEAR BOSTON.
* AT  9:30 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 41.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 35.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  SATURDAY EVENING.

$$
CMC
875 
WGUS83 KLMK 160056
FLSLMK
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 
856 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
KENTUCKY...

  ROLLING FORK RIVER NEAR BOSTON 
  GREEN RIVER AT WOODBURY 
  GREEN RIVER AT ROCHESTER 
 
AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN KENTUCKY...BUTLER...HARDIN...
MUHLENBERG...NELSON...OHIO...WARREN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER ATTEMPT TO CROSS ANY FLOODING ROADS. THIS IS 
ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS AT NIGHT. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR COMMERCIAL BROADCASTS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. IF YOU ARE AFFECTED
BY THESE CRESTS TAKE ANY NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS.
 
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT 
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=LMK (ALL LOWER CASE).

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

KYC093-179-161456-
/O.CON.KLMK.FL.W.0037.000000T0000Z-110417T0600Z/
/BSNK2.2.ER.110412T1910Z.110414T2000Z.110417T0000Z.NO/
856 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ROLLING FORK RIVER NEAR BOSTON.
* AT  8:30 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 38.7 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 35.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  SATURDAY EVENING.

$$

KYC031-227-161456-
/O.CON.KLMK.FL.W.0035.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/WDBK2.1.ER.110412T1316Z.110415T1000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
856 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE GREEN RIVER AT WOODBURY.
* AT  6:00 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 39.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 33.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO A STAGE OF 37.3 FEET 
  BY SUNDAY MORNING.

$$

KYC031-177-183-161456-
/O.CON.KLMK.FL.W.0036.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/RCHK2.1.ER.000000T0000Z.110416T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
856 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE GREEN RIVER AT ROCHESTER.
* AT  7:00 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 21.4 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 22.1 FEET BY 
  AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY THEN BEGIN FALLING.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 22.0  
  FEET ON FEB 21 2003.

$$
679 
WGUS83 KLMK 161443
FLSLMK
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 
1043 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
KENTUCKY...

  ROLLING FORK RIVER NEAR BOSTON 
 
AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN KENTUCKY...HARDIN...NELSON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER ATTEMPT TO CROSS ANY FLOODING ROADS. THIS IS 
ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS AT NIGHT. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR COMMERCIAL BROADCASTS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. IF YOU ARE AFFECTED
BY THESE CRESTS TAKE ANY NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS.
 
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT 
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=LMK (ALL LOWER CASE).

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED THIS EVENING.

&&

KYC093-179-170243-
/O.CON.KLMK.FL.W.0037.000000T0000Z-110417T0600Z/
/BSNK2.2.ER.110412T1910Z.110414T2000Z.110417T0000Z.NO/
1043 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ROLLING FORK RIVER NEAR BOSTON.
* AT  9:30 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 35.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 35.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  THIS EVENING.

$$
RL
194 
WGUS83 KLMK 170120
FLSLMK
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 
920 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
KENTUCKY...
 
  ROLLING FORK RIVER NEAR BOSTON 
 
AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN KENTUCKY...HARDIN...NELSON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER ATTEMPT TO CROSS ANY FLOODING ROADS. THIS IS 
ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS AT NIGHT. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR COMMERCIAL BROADCASTS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. IF YOU ARE AFFECTED
BY THESE CRESTS TAKE ANY NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS.
 
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT 
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=LMK (ALL LOWER CASE).

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

KYC093-179-171320-
/O.EXT.KLMK.FL.W.0037.000000T0000Z-110418T1800Z/
/BSNK2.2.ER.110412T1910Z.110414T2000Z.110418T1200Z.NO/
920 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ROLLING FORK RIVER NEAR BOSTON.
* AT  8:30 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 35.3 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 35.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  MONDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 35.0 FEET...AGRICULTURAL BOTTOMLAND IS COVERED.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 35.3  
  FEET ON JAN 4 2004.

$$
258 
WGUS83 KLMK 171442
FLSLMK
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 
1042 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
KENTUCKY...
 
  ROLLING FORK RIVER NEAR BOSTON 
 
AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN KENTUCKY...HARDIN...NELSON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER ATTEMPT TO CROSS ANY FLOODING ROADS. THIS IS 
ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS AT NIGHT. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR COMMERCIAL BROADCASTS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. IF YOU ARE AFFECTED
BY THESE CRESTS TAKE ANY NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS.
 
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT 
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=LMK (ALL LOWER CASE).

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED THIS EVENING.

&&

KYC093-179-180242-
/O.EXT.KLMK.FL.W.0037.000000T0000Z-110418T0400Z/
/BSNK2.2.ER.110412T1910Z.110414T2000Z.110417T2200Z.NO/
1042 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ROLLING FORK RIVER NEAR BOSTON.
* AT  9:30 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 35.1 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 35.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE  
  THIS EVENING.

$$
RL
485 
WGUS83 KLMK 180117
FLSLMK
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 
917 PM EDT SUN APR 17 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
KENTUCKY...
 
  ROLLING FORK RIVER NEAR BOSTON 
 
AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN KENTUCKY...HARDIN...NELSON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER ATTEMPT TO CROSS ANY FLOODING ROADS. THIS IS 
ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS AT NIGHT. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR COMMERCIAL BROADCASTS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. IF YOU ARE AFFECTED
BY THESE CRESTS TAKE ANY NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS.
 
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT 
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=LMK (ALL LOWER CASE).

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED LATE MONDAY MORNING.

&&

KYC093-179-180708-
/O.EXT.KLMK.FL.W.0037.000000T0000Z-110418T0708Z/
/BSNK2.2.ER.110412T1910Z.110414T2000Z.110418T0108Z.NO/
917 PM EDT SUN APR 17 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ROLLING FORK RIVER NEAR BOSTON.
* AT  8:30 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 35.0 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 35.4 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE OVERNIGHT. 
* IMPACT...AT 35.0 FEET...AGRICULTURAL BOTTOMLAND IS COVERED.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 35.1  
  FEET ON MAR 8 1996.

$$
SZAPPANOS
526 
WGUS83 KLMK 180118
FLSLMK

FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 
918 PM EDT SUN APR 17 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
KENTUCKY...
 
  ROLLING FORK RIVER NEAR BOSTON 
 
AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN KENTUCKY...HARDIN...NELSON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER ATTEMPT TO CROSS ANY FLOODING ROADS. THIS IS 
ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS AT NIGHT. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR COMMERCIAL BROADCASTS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. IF YOU ARE AFFECTED
BY THESE CRESTS TAKE ANY NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS.
 
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT 
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=LMK (ALL LOWER CASE).

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED LATE MONDAY MORNING.

&&

KYC093-179-181400-
/O.EXT.KLMK.FL.W.0037.000000T0000Z-110418T1400Z/
/BSNK2.2.ER.110412T1910Z.110414T2000Z.110418T0108Z.NO/
918 PM EDT SUN APR 17 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ROLLING FORK RIVER NEAR BOSTON.
* AT  8:30 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 35.0 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 35.4 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE OVERNIGHT. 
* IMPACT...AT 35.0 FEET...AGRICULTURAL BOTTOMLAND IS COVERED.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 35.1  
  FEET ON MAR 8 1996.

$$
SZAPPANOS

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Louisville, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Apr 12, 10:46 AM EDT, 10 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 12, 10:46 AM EDT, 10 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1046 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2011

...UPDATED HYDROLOGY SECTION...

...MESOSCALE UPDATE...

MESOSCALE UPDATE #2

DEFORMATION BAND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY.  TWO DISTINCT BANDS ARE SHOWING UP.
THE FIRST ONE EXTENDS FROM FRANKLIN COUNTY SOUTHWARD THROUGH
ANDERSON COUNTY.  THE SECOND ONE EXTENDS FROM WOODFORD COUNTY
SOUTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF JESSAMINE AND MERCER COUNTIES. OVERALL
PRECIPITATION IN THE DEFORMATION BAND IS ON THE DOWNSWING...BUT THE
OVERALL MOVEMENT OF THE BAND IS A BIT SLOWER.  THEREFORE...IT MAY BE
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THIS BAND LIFTS OUT OF THE BLUEGRASS REGION.
FURTHER SOUTH...OVER OUR SOUTHEAST...THE BAND IS MOVING EAST AT A
BETTER CLIP.

FURTHER WEST...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLEARING SKIES WORKING INTO
OUR WESTERN CWA.  THIS CLEARING IS LIKELY TO MAKE SOME PROGRESS
EASTWARD LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.

WILL GO AHEAD ADJUST THE FORECAST TO KEEP HIGH RAIN CHANCES IN THE
EAST AND LOWER POPS OUT TO THE WEST.  WILL ALSO LOWER CLOUDS IN THE
WEST TOO BASED ON THE CURRENT SAT IMAGERY.  AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE
LARGELY AFFECTED BY CLOUDS/RAIN.  LOWER 60S IN THE WEST STILL LOOK
ON TARGET WITH 50S IN THE EAST.

HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE ADDRESSED BELOW IN ADDED HYDROLOGY SECTION
OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION.

MESOSCALE UPDATE #1

HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WHILE EXCESSIVE RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST.
DEFORMATION BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO AFFECT
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.  NUMEROUS CALLS
FROM OUR CO-OP FOLKS HAVE REPORTED BETWEEN 2.5 AND 3.5 INCHES OF
RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF UP TO 5 INCHES HAVE BEEN
REPORTED IN WOODBURY KENTUCKY.  NUMEROUS REPORTS OF PONDING OF WATER
AND STANDING WATER HAVE BEEN RECEIVED AT THE OFFICE THIS MORNING. IN
ADDITION...SEVERAL COUNTIES HAVE NUMEROUS ROADS UNDER WATER DUE TO
THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

COMBINATION OF FLOOD ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AND AREAL
FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CWA.  AREA AT MOST RISK FOR
FLOODING IS OVER THE BLUEGRASS REGION WHERE DEFORMATION BAND HAS SET
UP.  FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA WITH
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.  IN
AREAS WEST OF I-65...THE RAINFALL HAS ENDED HOWEVER HIGH WATER WILL
PERSIST FOR A WHILE AS AREA STREAMS/CREEKS SLOWLY DRAIN.

AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE OBVIOUSLY ON THE RISE AND FLOOD WARNINGS
HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR...

DEPUTY INDIANA ON THE MUSCATATUCK RIVER
BLUE LICK SPRINGS ON THE LICKING RIVER
DUNDEE ON THE ROUGH RIVER
PARIS ON STONER CREEK

MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING IS LIKELY IN THE GREEN...SALT...KENTUCKY
AND LICKING RIVER BASINS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  RIVER FORECASTS
FOR THOSE BASINS WILL BE UPDATED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOWS ACRS SERN KY AT 07Z WITH SURFACE LOW
CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN. AS A RESULT...MOISTURE FROM THE GULF
CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND SYS WITH SATELLITE COOLING TOPS/EMBEDDED
TSTMS IN VERY SLOW MOVING WIDESPREAD RAINS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.
WHILE RAINS HAVE NOT BEEN EXCESSIVE...RATES OF ONE HALF TO 1 INCH AN
HOUR ARE COMMON. STREAMS...ESPECIALLY THE SMALLER ONES IN MUCH OF
OUR CWA WILL LIKELY GO INTO FLOOD TODAY WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OR MORE
OF TOTAL RAIN BEFORE THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM DEPARTS THIS MORNING.
HAVE ALREADY ISSUED A RIVER FLOOD WARNING FOR DEPUTY ON THE
MUSCATATUCK RIVER IN SOUTHERN INDIANA AND ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOOD
WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING.

AFTER SYSTEM DEPARTURE THIS MORNING...SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD
TONIGHT AND WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...FROST WILL BE A
CONCERN. WILL MENTION IN HWO.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY - MONDAY)...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE REGION
RELATIVELY DRY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL SEE DAILY HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BY LATE THURSDAY...A FAIRLY STRONG AND LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE UPPER PLAINS. THE LATEST GFS...ECMWF...AND NAEFS CONTINUE TO
ILLUSTRATE THE CLOSING OFF OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY...WITH A SLOW MIGRATION TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES BY SATURDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM STRENGTHENS...STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AND SPREAD MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE TIMING ISSUES...WHICH
AFFECTS THE QUALITY AND DEPTH OF MOISTURE ADVECTION. HOWEVER...IT
STILL APPEARS DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S
BY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH A 120 KNOT CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET
SWINGING INTO THE REGION...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT
TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES THE BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM
VERY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY...WITH
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. WITH THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE
AND QUESTIONABLE INSTABILITY...THE OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS
IS STILL IN QUESTION. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FORECAST
UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS...STRONG FORCING WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
OVERCOME MARGINAL MOISTURE/STABILITY.

LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE RATHER MILD WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S EXPECTED. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD WARM BACK INTO THE LOW
TO MID 70S BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT LOOK SHOULD  DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE WEST AND MID 40S
ACROSS THE EAST.

THE REMAINING DISCUSSION IS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ISSUED AT
319 PM MONDAY...AND REMAINS VALID.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BOTH THE 11/12Z GFS AND EURO SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP 500 HPA LOW SLOWLY TRANSLATING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES STATES DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  BOTH MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM BECOMING VERTICALLY STACKED BY
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE SYSTEM PULLING OUT A BIT FASTER THAN
PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS SHOWED.  SATURDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE A RATHER COOL
AND CLOUDY DAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
GIVEN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE CONTAINED TO OUR
BLUEGRASS/NORTHEASTERN REGIONS.  FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BE IN PLACE AS WELL...SO BREEZY CONDITIONS STILL LOOK LIKELY.  BY
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SYSTEM WILL START TO MOVE AWAY WITH DRIER AIR
WORKING IN FROM THE WEST.  SOME RAIN SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS...AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY MIX IN.  HOWEVER...OVERALL
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE IS A BIT WARMER IN BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE RUNS...SO AM ONLY GOING TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
GRIDS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.   SUNDAY SHOULD SEE THE AREA BETWEEN
WEATHER SYSTEMS AS A FAST MOVING WAVE WITHIN THE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY.  QUITE A BIT OF
SPREAD IN THIS TIME FRAME IN THE ENSEMBLES THUS PLAN ON LEAVING
MONDAY DRY AT THIS POINT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S WITH LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT COOLING INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S.  WE SHOULD SEE
MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS WARMING
INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S ON SUNDAY AND INTO THE LOWER 60S BY MONDAY
WHILE OVERNIGHT TEMPS COOL INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

* FORECASTS AND RAINFALL -

WIDESPREAD HEAVY/EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED OVER THE LOUISVILLE
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF THREE TO SIX INCHES
HAVE OCCURRED SINCE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH THIS MORNING.  SLOW MOVING
DEFORMATION BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER
PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL KENTUCKY.  THIS WILL AFFECT THE KENTUCKY
AND LICKING RIVER BASINS.  ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL MAY
OCCUR OVER THE BLUEGRASS REGION THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY BECOME HIGHER IF THIS DEFORMATION BAND SLOWS
DOWN MORE THAN FORECAST.

* BASINS OF CONCERN -

ALL BASINS IN THE LOUISVILLE HYDROLOGIC AREA WILL FEEL THE IMPACTS
OF THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.  THE GREEN...SALT...KENTUCKY...LICKING
RIVER AND OHIO RIVER BASINS WILL SEE SHARP RISES OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  WE ARE CURRENTLY WORKING VERY CLOSELY WITH THE OHIO RIVER
FORECAST CENTER AND UPDATED FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

* SIGNIFICANT CHANGES -

THIS IS THE FIRST ISSUANCE OF THE HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION.  RIVER FLOOD
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS.

MUSCATATUCK RIVER AT DEPUTY INDIANA
LICKING RIVER AT BLUE LICK SPRINGS
ROUGH RIVER AT DUNDEE
STONER CREEK AT PARIS
CYNTHIANA ON THE SOUTH FORK OF THE LICKING RIVER
DRAKES CREEK NEAR ALVATON
GREEN RIVER AT MUNFORDVILLE...BROWNSVILLE...WOODBURY AND ROCHESTER

ADDITIONAL FLOOD WARNINGS ARE LIKELY ON AREA BASINS.  IF YOU LIVE IN
A FLOOD PRONE AREA NEAR ANY CREEK OR STREAM...BE ON THE ALERT FOR
RAPID RISES AND BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

* GRAPHICAL INFORMATION -

FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND GRAPHICAL INFORMATION SEE OUR INTERNET
WEBSITE FOR RIVERS AND LAKES AT...

HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/APPS/INDEX.PHP?WFO=LMK  (USE LOWER CASE)

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO VIRGINIA BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS SYSTEM
DEPARTS...GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KLEX AND KBWG WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
KLEX WILL TAKE THE LONGEST TO CLEAR AS THE WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE
HANGS ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS REGION. VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PRESENT
ACROSS THE LOUISVILLE METRO AREA WILL CONTINUE...WITH SKIES CLEARING
BY LATE THIS MORNING. KBWG WILL CLEAR OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
KLEX CLEARING BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE......MJ
SHORT TERM.....DK/11
LONG TERM......MJP
HYDROLOGY......MJ
AVIATION.......MJP
Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 12, 4:50 AM EDT, 6 hours 6 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
450 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2011

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-130800-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
450 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2011 /350 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
THOSE AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65. EAST OF I-65...RAIN
WILL END BY MID MORNING INTO MIDDAY. RIVER FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED OVER PARTS OF THE REGION. FOR MORE
DETAILED INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

PATCHY FROST MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND THE BLUEGRASS REGION OF KENTUCKY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

ANOTHER POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST STORMS
WILL LIKELY OCCUR FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY FLOODING ALONG WITH RAINFALL
TOTALS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE.

DK/MJP

In the hours before

Local storm report, Apr 12, 10:32 AM EDT, 24 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1032 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 E FORDSVILLE          37.64N  86.64W
04/12/2011  M3.55 INCH       BRECKINRIDGE       KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORT FROM ASKIN... KY

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1100378

LG
Local storm report, Apr 12, 10:39 AM EDT, 17 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1039 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     HEAVY RAIN       VINE GROVE              37.81N  85.98W
04/12/2011  M4.50 INCH       HARDIN             KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTS OTTER CREEK OUT OF ITS BANKS

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1100379

LG
Local storm report, Apr 12, 10:43 AM EDT, 13 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1043 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     HEAVY RAIN       6 SSW VERSAILLES        37.98N  84.77W
04/12/2011  M3.03 INCH       WOODFORD           KY   COCORAHS

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1100380

LG
Local storm report, Apr 12, 10:44 AM EDT, 12 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1044 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 AM     HEAVY RAIN       LOUISVILLE              38.22N  85.74W
04/12/2011  M3.36 INCH       JEFFERSON          KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1100381

LG
Local storm report, Apr 12, 10:45 AM EDT, 11 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1045 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 AM     HEAVY RAIN       7 WSW SONORA            37.49N  86.01W
04/12/2011  M4.19 INCH       HARDIN             KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTS 2.83 INCHES FELL FROM 7PM MONDAY
            THROUGH THIS MORNING...ENDING WITH A STORM TOTAL OF 4.19
            INCHES

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1100382

LG
Local storm report, Apr 12, 10:48 AM EDT, 8 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1048 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 E FORDSVILLE          37.64N  86.64W
04/12/2011  M3.55 INCH       BRECKINRIDGE       KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORT FROM ASKIN... KY

&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME

EVENT NUMBER LMK1100378

LG

The office that day

Everything else NWS Louisville, KY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Apr 11, 8:14 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementLMKBarren, Metcalfe31 min
Apr 11, 8:46 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementLMKAdair, Cumberland, Metcalfe, Monroe29 min
Apr 11, 9:36 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementLMKRussell24 min
Apr 12, 4:27 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningLMKAllen, Breckinridge, Butler, Edmonson, Grayson, Logan and 3 more4 hr
Apr 12, 5:22 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningLMKNicholas, Robertson3 days
Apr 12, 5:56 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningLMKOhio66 hr
Apr 12, 7:23 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningLMKBourbon48 hr
Apr 12, 7:37 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryLMKAdair, Allen, Barren, Casey, Clinton, Cumberland and 9 more3 hr
Apr 12, 7:41 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryLMKAnderson, Boyle, Clark, Fayette, Franklin, Garrard and 9 more3 hr
Apr 12, 7:46 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningLMKNicholas3 hr
Apr 12, 7:52 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryLMKBreckinridge, Bullitt, Grayson, Hardin, Henry, Jefferson and 7 more3 hr
Apr 12, 8:00 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryLMKHancock3 hr
Apr 12, 8:09 AM EDTAreal Flood WarningLMKHardin, Larue3 hr
Apr 12, 8:15 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningLMKAnderson, Bourbon, Fayette, Franklin, Harrison, Jessamine and 2 more3 hr
Apr 12, 8:22 AM EDTAreal Flood WarningLMKHancock3 hr
Apr 12, 8:25 AM EDTAreal Flood WarningLMKSpencer3 hr
Apr 12, 8:34 AM EDTAreal Flood WarningLMKButler, Warren3 hr
Apr 12, 8:50 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningLMKMercer3 hr
Apr 12, 9:46 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningLMKWashington3 hr
Apr 12, 10:19 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningLMKHarrison45 hr
Apr 12, 10:30 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryLMKAdair, Casey, Clinton, Cumberland, Lincoln, Russell and 1 more6 hr
Apr 12, 10:34 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningLMKWarren21 hr
Apr 12, 10:34 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningLMKHart61 hr
Apr 12, 10:34 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningLMKEdmonson4 days
Apr 12, 10:34 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningLMKButler, Warren6 days
Apr 12, 10:34 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningLMKButler, Muhlenberg, Ohio8 days
Apr 12, 10:48 AM EDTAreal Flood WarningLMKAnderson, Bourbon, Boyle, Clark, Fayette, Franklin and 10 more6 hr
Apr 12, 11:37 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningLMKJefferson, Oldham4 days
Apr 12, 11:37 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningLMKJefferson, Meade72 hr
Apr 12, 11:37 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningLMKBreckinridge, Hancock7 days
Apr 12, 11:37 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningLMKBreckinridge, Hancock27 days
Apr 12, 11:48 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryLMKAllen, Butler, Edmonson, Logan, Simpson, Warren6 hr

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Kentucky, 2011Every river flood warning in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.