Alert archive / Kentucky / Flood Watches in 2011

Flood Watch 2, NWS Louisville, KY

March 4, 201110 counties in Indiana; 49 counties in Kentucky

NWS Louisville, KY issued this flood watch at Mar 4, 2011, 3:28 AM EST for 10 counties in Indiana; 49 counties in Kentucky. It took effect at Mar 4, 2011, 7:00 PM EST. It was in force for 24 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Mar 4, 2011, 3:28 AM EST (08:28 UTC)
In effect from
Mar 4, 2011, 7:00 PM EST
Expired
Mar 5, 2011, 7:00 PM EST
In force
24 hr
Issued by
NWS Louisville, KY
Flood severity
None
All 59 counties

Clark County, IN, Crawford County, IN, Dubois County, IN, Floyd County, IN, Harrison County, IN, Jefferson County, IN, Orange County, IN, Perry County, IN, Scott County, IN, Washington County, IN, Adair County, KY, Allen County, KY, Anderson County, KY, Barren County, KY, Bourbon County, KY, Boyle County, KY, Breckinridge County, KY, Bullitt County, KY, Butler County, KY, Casey County, KY, Clark County, KY, Clinton County, KY, Cumberland County, KY, Edmonson County, KY, Fayette County, KY, Franklin County, KY, Garrard County, KY, Grayson County, KY, Green County, KY, Hancock County, KY, Hardin County, KY, Harrison County, KY, Hart County, KY, Henry County, KY, Jefferson County, KY, Jessamine County, KY, Larue County, KY, Lincoln County, KY, Logan County, KY, Madison County, KY, Marion County, KY, Meade County, KY, Mercer County, KY, Metcalfe County, KY, Monroe County, KY, Nelson County, KY, Nicholas County, KY, Ohio County, KY, Oldham County, KY, Russell County, KY, Scott County, KY, Shelby County, KY, Simpson County, KY, Spencer County, KY, Taylor County, KY, Trimble County, KY, Warren County, KY, Washington County, KY, Woodford County, KY

The radar

The Louisville radar (KLVX), 43 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:28 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 00:00Z, 8.5 hours before the alert went out and 205 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Nashville Metro, TN at 00:00Z on 2011-03-04Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Nashville Metro, TN at 00:00Z on 2011-03-04The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 63 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
2596 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
37 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
63 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
282 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

920 
WGUS63 KLMK 040828
FFALMK

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
328 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2011

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...

.BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
ALLOW FOR AMPLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY
TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS EVENING...
LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. WITH SEVERAL AREA RIVERS RUNNING
NEAR OR ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE AND THE GROUND ALREADY
SATURATED...CONCERN FOR AREAL FLOODING WILL EXIST.

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-041600-
/O.NEW.KLMK.FA.A.0002.110305T0000Z-110306T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...
BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...
CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...
LEXINGTON...PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...
HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...
LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER...RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...
BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...
LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...
SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...
JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
328 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2011 /228 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2011/

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF INDIANA AND KENTUCKY...INCLUDING 
 THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN INDIANA...CLARK IN...CRAWFORD IN...
 DUBOIS IN...FLOYD IN...HARRISON IN...JEFFERSON IN...ORANGE 
 IN...PERRY IN...SCOTT IN AND WASHINGTON IN. IN KENTUCKY...
 ADAIR KY...ALLEN KY...ANDERSON KY...BARREN KY...BOURBON KY...
 BOYLE KY...BRECKINRIDGE KY...BULLITT KY...BUTLER KY...CASEY 
 KY...CLARK KY...CLINTON KY...CUMBERLAND KY...EDMONSON KY...
 FAYETTE KY...FRANKLIN KY...GARRARD KY...GRAYSON KY...GREEN 
 KY...HANCOCK KY...HARDIN KY...HARRISON KY...HART KY...HENRY 
 KY...JEFFERSON KY...JESSAMINE KY...LARUE KY...LINCOLN KY...
 LOGAN KY...MADISON KY...MARION KY...MEADE KY...MERCER KY...
 METCALFE KY...MONROE KY...NELSON KY...NICHOLAS KY...OHIO KY...
 OLDHAM KY...RUSSELL KY...SCOTT KY...SHELBY KY...SIMPSON KY...
 SPENCER KY...TAYLOR KY...TRIMBLE KY...WARREN KY...WASHINGTON 
 KY AND WOODFORD KY.

* FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING

* WITH SEVERAL AREA RIVERS RUNNING NEAR OR ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE
  AND THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED...CONCERN FOR AREAL FLOODING
  WILL EXIST AS WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
  EXPECTED. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
  ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE BRIEF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

* LOCATIONS NEAR STREAMS AND RIVERS AS WELL AS FLOOD PRONE AREAS
  SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR HIGH WATER. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FLASH
  FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...THE POTENTIAL FOR
  THUNDERSTORMS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL DOES EXIST. BE ALERT FOR
  ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING ISSUES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

$$

BJS
6 follow-up statements
913 
WGUS63 KLMK 041556
FFALMK

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1056 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2011

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...

.BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT
WILL ALLOW FOR AMPLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BY TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS EVENING...
LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. WITH SEVERAL AREA RIVERS RUNNING
NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND THE GROUND ALREADY
SATURATED...CONCERN FOR AREAL FLOODING EXISTS.

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-042200-
/O.CON.KLMK.FA.A.0002.110305T0000Z-110306T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...
BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...
CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...
LEXINGTON...PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...
HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...
LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER...RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...
BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...
LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...
SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...
JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
1056 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2011 /956 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2011/

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS
EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

* FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING

* WITH SEVERAL AREA RIVERS RUNNING NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND
  THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED...CONCERN FOR AREAL FLOODING EXISTS
  AS WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED. LOCALLY
  HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN
  AREAS THAT RECEIVE BRIEF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

* LOCATIONS NEAR STREAMS AND RIVERS AS WELL AS FLOOD PRONE AREAS
  SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR HIGH WATER. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FLASH
  FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...THE POTENTIAL FOR
  THUNDERSTORMS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL DOES EXIST. BE ALERT FOR
  ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING ISSUES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

$$

13
595 
WGUS63 KLMK 042023
FFALMK

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
323 PM EST FRI MAR 4 2011

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...

.BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT
WILL ALLOW FOR AMPLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY TONIGHT...LASTING
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. WITH SEVERAL AREA RIVERS RUNNING NEAR OR
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED...CONCERN FOR
AREAL FLOODING EXISTS.

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-051000-
/O.CON.KLMK.FA.A.0002.110305T0000Z-110306T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...
BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...
CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...
LEXINGTON...PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...
HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...
LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER...RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...
BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...
LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...
SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...
JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
323 PM EST FRI MAR 4 2011 /223 PM CST FRI MAR 4 2011/

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS
EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

* FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING

* WITH SEVERAL AREA RIVERS RUNNING NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND
  THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED...CONCERN FOR AREAL FLOODING EXISTS
  AS WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED. LOCALLY
  HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN
  AREAS THAT RECEIVE BRIEF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

* LOCATIONS NEAR STREAMS AND RIVERS AS WELL AS FLOOD PRONE AREAS
  SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR HIGH WATER. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FLASH
  FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...THE POTENTIAL FOR
  THUNDERSTORMS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL DOES EXIST. BE ALERT FOR
  ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING ISSUES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD
WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

$$

13
913 
WGUS63 KLMK 050849
FFALMK

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
348 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2011

...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THIS EVENING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH SEVERAL AREA RIVERS RUNNING
NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND THE GROUND ALREADY
SATURATED...CONCERN FOR AREAL FLOODING EXISTS.

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-052100-
/O.CON.KLMK.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-110306T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...
BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...
CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...
LEXINGTON...PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...
HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...
LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER...RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...
BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...
LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...
SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...
JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
348 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2011 /248 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2011/

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY

* THROUGH THIS EVENING

* WITH SEVERAL AREA RIVERS RUNNING NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND
  THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED...CONCERN FOR AREAL FLOODING EXISTS
  AS WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
  LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
  IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE BRIEF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

* LOCATIONS NEAR STREAMS AND RIVERS AS WELL AS FLOOD PRONE AREAS
  SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR HIGH WATER. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FLASH
  FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...THE POTENTIAL FOR
  THUNDERSTORMS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL DOES EXIST. BE ALERT FOR
  ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING ISSUES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD
WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

$$

EER
578 
WGUS63 KLMK 050852
FFALMK

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
352 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2011


...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH SEVERAL AREA RIVERS
RUNNING NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND THE GROUND ALREADY
SATURATED...CONCERN FOR AREAL FLOODING EXISTS.

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-052100-
/O.CON.KLMK.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-110306T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...
BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...
CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...
LEXINGTON...PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...
HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...
LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER...RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...
BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...
LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...
SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...
JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
352 AM EST SAT MAR 5 2011 /252 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2011/

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY

* THROUGH THIS EVENING

* WITH SEVERAL AREA RIVERS RUNNING NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND 
  THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED...CONCERN FOR AREAL FLOODING 
  EXISTS AS WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED 
  TODAY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE 
  ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE BRIEF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. 

* LOCATIONS NEAR STREAMS AND RIVERS AS WELL AS FLOOD PRONE AREAS 
  SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR HIGH WATER. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FLASH 
  FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...THE POTENTIAL FOR 
  THUNDERSTORMS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL DOES EXIST. BE ALERT 
  FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING ISSUES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD
WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

$$

EER
960 
WGUS63 KLMK 051954
FFALMK

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
254 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2011

...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE LAKE
CUMBERLAND AND BLUEGRASS REGIONS OF KENTUCKY...

...THE FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KENTUCKY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

.BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE BLUEGRASS AND LAKE
CUMBERLAND REGIONS THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THE WIDESPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY SEEN SO FAR TODAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ONLY TO OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON. THUS THE WATCH IS STILL SET TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING. FARTHER WEST INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY AS WELL AS ALL OF SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA...ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAINS SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...BUT SIGNIFICANT NEW RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. THE FLOOD WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT THERE HAS BEEN
CANCELLED.

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>035-038>040-045>047-053-054-
061>065-070>074-052100-
/O.CAN.KLMK.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-110306T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-
GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-
BARREN KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...
BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...TAYLORSVILLE...
LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...
HARRODSBURG...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...
MUNFORDVILLE...GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...RUSSELLVILLE...
BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW
254 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2011 /154 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2011/

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. RAINFALL TOTALS IN THIS AREA TOPPED
OUT GENERALLY BETWEEN A HALF INCH AND ONE AND A HALF INCHES.
ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NO LONGER
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...STAY TUNED TO UPDATES ON RIVER FLOOD PRODUCTS
AS SEVERAL AREA RIVERS SHOULD SEE RISES AGAIN AFTER TODAY'S RAINS. 

$$

KYZ036-037-041>043-048-049-055>057-066-067-075>078-081-082-060000-
/O.CON.KLMK.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-110306T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-
JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-CASEY KY-
LINCOLN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GEORGETOWN...CYNTHIANA...LEXINGTON...
PARIS...CARLISLE...NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...DANVILLE...
LANCASTER...RICHMOND...LIBERTY...STANFORD...TOMPKINSVILLE...
EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
254 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2011 /154 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2011/

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS
EVENING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
  INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
  BOURBON...BOYLE...CLARK...FAYETTE...GARRARD...HARRISON...
  JESSAMINE...MADISON...NICHOLAS AND SCOTT. IN SOUTH CENTRAL
  KENTUCKY...ADAIR...CASEY...CLINTON...CUMBERLAND...LINCOLN...
  METCALFE...MONROE AND RUSSELL.

* UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING

* WITH SEVERAL AREA RIVERS RUNNING NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND
  THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED...CONCERN FOR AREAL FLOODING EXISTS
  AS WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED BY THE
  END OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL THIS EVENING. 

* LOCATIONS NEAR STREAMS AND RIVERS AS WELL AS FLOOD PRONE AREAS
  SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR HIGH WATER.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD
WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

$$

RJS
989 
WGUS63 KLMK 052358
FFALMK

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
658 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2011

...HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN MAY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THIS RAIN
WILL NOT CREATE ADDITIONAL FLOODING ISSUES...

KYZ036-037-041>043-048-049-055>057-066-067-075>078-081-082-060100-
/O.EXP.KLMK.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-110306T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-
JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-CASEY KY-
LINCOLN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GEORGETOWN...CYNTHIANA...LEXINGTON...
PARIS...CARLISLE...NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...DANVILLE...
LANCASTER...RICHMOND...LIBERTY...STANFORD...TOMPKINSVILLE...
EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
658 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2011 /558 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2011/

...FLOOD WATCH WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING...

THE FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING.

THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS REGION OF
KENTUCKY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS RAIN WILL ONLY CREATE
RAINFALL RATES OF LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR...WHICH
WILL NOT ADD TO CURRENT RIVER FLOODING PROBLEMS. THEREFORE...THE
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

$$

AL

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Louisville, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flood watch went out at Mar 4, 3:27 AM EST, 1 minute earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 4, 3:27 AM EST, 1 minute before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
327 AM EST FRI MAR 4 2011

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

SFC WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THIS
MORNING.  TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE QUITE WARM WITH
MID-UPPER 50S NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...AND A FEW 60 DEGREE
READINGS WERE FOUND ACROSS SOUTHERN KY.  DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH.  THEREFORE...HAVE BUMPED
OVERNIGHT TEMPS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE ITS INFLUX INTO THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  MAIN
FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE A COMBINATION OF THE CLASSIC WARM AIR
ADVECTION SCHEME ALONG WITH THE AID OF ISENTROPIC LIFT.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  IN ADDITION TO THE SCATTERED SHOWERS...IT WILL BE A BREEZY
DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION.  SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS IN THE 25-30 MPH RANGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE.  IF WE GET SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AND SOME SUN...MORE
TURBULENT MIXING MAY RESULT AND SOME HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
WE WILL CLEARLY BE IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY AND HAVE GONE HIGHER
THAN ALL GUIDANCE WITH READINGS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S.  AGAIN...IF
SOME AREAS GET SUNSHINE...A SHOT AT 70 IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

FOR TONIGHT...AS SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST...WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION.  EXPECT MOST OF THE REGION TO BE
COVERED BY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OVERALL INSTABILITY IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT...BUT RUMBLES OF THUNDER
HERE AND THERE CERTAINLY CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.  BASED ON THE
CONSENSUS OF THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...HAVE BUMPED
POPS UP TO 100 PERCENT FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING PAST 1 INCH...MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINS ARE LIKELY...THUS WILL ALSO INCLUDE THAT WORDING IN THE
FORECAST TONIGHT.  GIVEN THE RECENT RAINS...SATURATED GROUNDS AND
ANTICIPATED RAINFALL...WILL BE HOISTING A FLOOD WATCH BEGINNING
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY.  TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE REGION ENDING BY 12Z SATURDAY LOOK TO RANGE IN THE 0.50 TO 1.00
INCH RANGE.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY - THURSDAY)...

SATURDAY - SATURDAY NIGHT...

...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY...

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT WILL BE ONGOING SATURDAY MORNING WITH
SURFACE LOW SLIDING FROM JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER TO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. AMPLIFIED CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH WILL LEAVE SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY IN CONTINUED SOUTHWEST/MOIST FLOW
SATURDAY. HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
FROM 12Z - 00Z FROM WEST TO EAST AS LIFT FROM 60 KNOT LLJ AND RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF 100-120 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET COMBINE WITH PWATS
OVER 1 INCH. EXPECT ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERY ACTIVITY LINGERING
OVERNIGHT AS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING QUICKLY
CUTS OFF DEEP MOISTURE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. COLD AIR STILL
LOOKS TO GET IN HERE QUICK AND COULD SEE A CHANGEOVER TO SOME SNOW
SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...DEEP
MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK TO EXTEND TO -10 C SO WOULD EXPECT MORE IN
THE WAY OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. UNTIL MOISTURE BECOMES MORE
CERTAIN...HAVE INCLUDED LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY.

OVERALL...STILL EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE AREAL FLOOD WATCH ENDING SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE
EXIT OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN. OVERALL...THIS SYSTEM HAS TRENDED TOWARD
A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION...WHICH IS CUTTING DOWN ON OVERALL RAIN
TOTALS A BIT. HAVE ALSO CONTINUED TO TREND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DOWN
AS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE WILL EXIST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON
SATURDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...
OCCURRING EARLY IN THE WEST. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD DROP INTO
THE 30 TO 35 DEGREE RANGE BY DAWN AS COLD AIR QUICKLY USHERS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT.

SUNDAY - THURSDAY...

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION BACK TO A FLAT AND ZONAL
PATTERN ON SUNDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE
COOL TEMPERATURES MODERATING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS
WELL AS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY AND MONDAY GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL ONLY RECOVER
TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S...WITH LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
20S TO AROUND 30. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL JUMP BACK TO THE LOW TO MID
50S...THEN INCREASE TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BY TUESDAY. LOWS
ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO TREND MILDER...IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE NEXT DIGGING WEST CONUS
TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED CENTRAL PLAINS SURFACE LOW. MODEL
SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN A LOW TRACK FROM THE PLAINS
TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...WHICH WOULD PUT THE OHIO VALLEY
SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND AT RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR MOISTURE RETURN AS INSTABILITY
IS ALWAYS THE KEY FACTOR WITH LATE WINTER/EARLY SPRING DYNAMIC
SYSTEMS. ALSO OF INTEREST WILL BE ANOTHER POTENTIAL ROUND OF HEAVY
RAIN WHICH WOULD CAUSE CONCERN FOR ALREADY SWOLLEN RIVERS/SATURATED
GROUND. AT THIS POINT...BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS APPEAR TO
BE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHERE POPS HAVE STEADILY BEEN
INCREASED. TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S
WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY JUMPING TO THE LOWER 60S. EXPECT A COOL DOWN
ONCE AGAIN BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

* FORECAST OVERVIEW AND RAINFALL -

LATEST ROUND OF GUIDANCE ALONG WITH HPC DATA ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH A FORECAST OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS FROM TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
INDIANA EARLY SATURDAY. INITIALLY THE FOCUS FOR A HEAVY RAIN THREAT
WILL LIE ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...ENDING ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS AND LAKE
CUMBERLAND AREAS EARLY SUNDAY.

AT THIS TIME...AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AS WELL AS
WEST CENTRAL KENTUCKY LOOK TO RECEIVE THE MOST RAINFALL. IN THESE
SPOTS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES APPEAR LIKELY AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STAYS STALLED NEAREST THESE LOCATIONS FOR THE
LONGEST. DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AND RESULTANT RUNOFF...CONCERN
FOR AREAL AND RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES TO INCREASE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH THAT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM.  GIVEN THE
AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ALONG WITH THE HIGH CONFIDENCE OF RAINFALL A
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

* BASINS OF CONCERN -

CURRENTLY...THE OHIO...GREEN AND ROLLING FORK RIVER BASINS HAVE
POINTS IN ACTION OR MINOR FLOOD STAGE. RIVER LEVELS WILL NOT HAVE
TIME TO RECOVER MUCH BEFORE RAINFALL BEGINS ONCE AGAIN... ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHERN INDIANA WHERE RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO BEGIN LATER TODAY.
ALL BASINS IN SOUTHERN INDIANA...INCLUDING THE OHIO RIVER...WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REMAIN IN FLOOD STAGE OR RISE TO FLOOD STAGE
IN THE COMING DAYS.

THE ROUGH RIVER...ROLLING FORK AND THE GREEN RIVER BASINS HAVE THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL TO REMAIN IN OR RISE TO FLOOD STAGES OVER THE
COMING DAYS. HOWEVER...BASINS FURTHER EAST INCLUDING THE KENTUCKY
AND THE LICKING RIVER BASINS WILL ALSO BE IN DANGER AS WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINS FALL OVER THE AREA.

* SIGNIFICANT CHANGES -

A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE BASED ON THE
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

* GRAPHICAL INFORMATION -

FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND GRAPHICAL INFORMATION SEE OUR INTERNET
WEBSITE FOR RIVERS AND LAKES AT...

HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/APPS/INDEX.PHP?WFO=LMK  (USE LOWER CASE)

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.  THE WARM FRONT OVER
NORTH CENTRAL KY AS OF 430Z WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH THROUGH SDF
AND LEX OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO VEERING SFC WINDS TO THE SSE. IN
ADDITION...A LLJ WILL CRANK UP WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WELL.
THIS WILL CAUSE LLWS AT THE TAF SITES WITH WINDS AT 2KFT BETWEEN 40
TO 45 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH.  THIS LLWS WILL BE MAINLY FOR SPEED
SHEER.

BY MID MORNING LLWS WILL END AND SFC WINDS WILL GUST INTO THE MID 20
KT RANGE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.  MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SFC BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY
WEARS ON AND WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SHOWER AT ONE OF THE TAF
SITES BEFORE 0Z.  HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND A
CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL BE DURING THE EVENING HOURS INCREASING
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.  WILL ADD SHOWERS AND CB TO THE END OF THIS
TAF PERIOD.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

SHORT TERM........MJ
LONG TERM.........BJS
HYDROLOGY.........MJ/BJS
AVIATION..........AML
Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 3, 10:18 PM EST, 5 hours 10 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1018 PM EST THU MAR 3 2011

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-050330-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
1018 PM EST THU MAR 3 2011 /918 PM CST THU MAR 3 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A SLOWLY MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF RAINFALL...AS WELL AS A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE LIKELY. AFTER THE RECENT
HEAVY RAINS...AREAL AND RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CONCERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ANOTHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT
PLAINS TO SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY...SOME OF WHICH COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE. ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN...AS WELL AS
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

JSD/AML

The office that day

Everything else NWS Louisville, KY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 4, 11:45 AM ESTRiver Flood AdvisoryLMKClark, Floyd50 hr
Mar 4, 11:45 AM ESTRiver Flood AdvisoryLMKClark, Floyd50 hr
Mar 4, 11:45 AM ESTRiver Flood AdvisoryLMKPerry50 hr

Nearby

Flood Watches in Kentucky, 2011Flood Watches in Indiana, 2011Every flood watch in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.