Wind Advisory 44, NWS Elko, NV

727 
WWUS75 KLKN 181044
NPWLKN

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
244 AM PST FRI NOV 18 2011


NVZ030>033-036-181145-
/O.CAN.KLKN.WI.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-111118T1200Z/
HUMBOLDT COUNTY-NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY-
EXTREME EASTERN ELKO COUNTY-
NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...JACKPOT...WILDHORSE...
SPRING CREEK...WELLS...PEQUOP SUMMIT...SILVER ZONE PASS...
EMIGRANT PASS
244 AM PST FRI NOV 18 2011

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ELKO HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

WINDS HAVE GENERALLY DECREASED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING. WIND SPEEDS MEASURED BY REMOTE SITES ARE SHOWING
WIDESPREAD READINGS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35
MPH...ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SITES ARE GUSTING TO 50 MPH. AS A
RESULT...THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP ONCE AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON DUE TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS OVER THE AREA. WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH...AND
WILL BE COVERED UNDER A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW. PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCT RNOWSWLKN FOR DETAILS.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1120 AM PST THU NOV 17 2011

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF
NEVADA TODAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA BY THE AFTERNOON. A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS
NEVADA FRIDAY...PRODUCING ACCUMULATING SNOW...STRONG WINDS AND
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. VERY COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...MADE UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY
GIVEN CURRENT READINGS AND EXPECTATIONS OF ADDITIONAL WARMING. NO
OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. RCM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 427 AM /

UPDATE...MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO POP AND SUBSEQUENT GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR TIMING CHANGES IN THE MODELS. UPDATES WILL BE ROLLED
OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 331 AM /

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. RADAR THIS MORNING IS
SHOWING VIRGA...MAYBE EVEN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR THE BORDER WITH
IDAHO. 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE IS DEPICTING SOME WEAK LIFT IN THIS
AREA...WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING AS THE MORNING WEARS ON. SATELLITE
LOOP HAS LOW AND MID CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE REGION NORTH OF I-80
BUT IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL AFFECT THE AREA TODAY.
FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST...A LARGE UPPER LOW IS SPINNING OFF THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WILL BE OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER IN
THE SHORT TERM.

FOR TODAY...THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO INFLUENCE OUR AREA.
THE RESULTING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. HAVE HELD OFF ON WIND ADVISORY
ISSUANCES AS THIS MORNING'S SOUNDING SHOW LIMITED MIXING WILL HELP
TO KEEP WINDS MOSTLY BELOW CRITERIA. A FEW LOCAL SPOTS MAY HIT
ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER LOCALES...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA SHOULD BE BELOW.

BY LATER TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL DIVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA. NEWEST MODEL
RUNS THIS MORNING HAVE SLOWED THE FORWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE FRIDAY TIMEFRAME AND HAVE TRIED
TO MASSAGE POPS TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE IN TIMING OF ABOUT 3 TO 6
HOURS LATER. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO REMAIN FAIRLY POTENT AS IT
CROSSES THE BORDER WITH IDAHO. 700MB FGEN FIELDS DEPICT THE BEST
FORCING EASTWARD IN IDAHO DURING THE PERIOD AFTER 18Z FRIDAY. AIR
MASS REMAINS FAIRLY UNSTABLE THROUGH THIS STORMY PERIOD WITH MODEL
CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7 TO 8C/KM. UPPER
LEVEL DIV-Q FORCING REMAINS FAIRLY ROBUST THROUGH THE FRIDAY
PERIOD WITH 50-100 UNITS THROUGH THIS TIME. IMPACT BASED WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR
FRIDAY...BUT WITH THE MODELS SLOWING THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE
FRONT...BUT THE TIMING WILL NEED TO BE LOOKED AT. WINDS WILL ALSO
PICK UP TOMORROW...BECOMING WINDY ACROSS MOST LOCALES. THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY...ALTHOUGH GOOD MIXING ACROSS THE NORTH-
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL AID IN
BRINGING DOWN STRONG WINDS. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE MONITORING THE
TIMING AND AREA FOR A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY.

BY SATURDAY THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXITTING THE AREA WITH
PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE ISOLATED FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY CHILLY WITH HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS ARE
IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THERE MAY BE
SOME REMNANT SHOWERS AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN EXITING TROUGH
TRAILS A 110 KT JET CORE OVER NORTHERN NEVADA. OTHERWISE A MAINLY DRY
PERIOD IS IN THE OFFING.

A 530-535 DM CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF OR/CA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE
SOUTH HUGGING THE COASTLINE AND TRANSITIONING INTO AN OPEN TROUGH
WHILE WEAKENING...THEN WILL MOVE INLAND OVER BAJA BY MONDAY. FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS POPPING
UP OVER WHITE PINE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEVADA AS THE UPPER LOW
NEAR BAJA GENERATES SOME DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THUS HAVE RETAINED THE
NOTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW OVER ZONE 35. AS THE AXIS OF THIS
NEXT TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF NEVADA LATE MONDAY...A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL ENSUE AMIDST A PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONG STORM SYSTEM. THE
MOVEMENT OF THIS NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL TO THE WEST OF THE
STATE WILL LEAVE THE LKN CWFA DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER BREEZY
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A
CONCERN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S...LOWS IN
THE TEENS.

AVIATION...SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES FOR
THE NEXT 24 HRS.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

93

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
750 AM PST THU NOV 17 2011

NVZ013-030>037-181600-
NORTHERN NYE COUNTY-HUMBOLDT COUNTY-NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY-
EXTREME EASTERN ELKO COUNTY-RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE-
WHITE PINE COUNTY-
NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-
SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-
750 AM PST THU NOV 17 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
NEVADA...NORTH CENTRAL NEVADA...NORTHEAST NEVADA...NORTHWEST
NEVADA AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TODAY OUT AHEAD OF A STORM
SYSTEM ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
NEVADA...WITH THE STRONG WINDS BEING FELT OVER THE NORTHERN PART
OF HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS MAY BE FELT AT
HIGH ELEVATIONS...WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS NEVADA ON FRIDAY. STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE...WITH WINDS OF
20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH...MAINLY IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
LANDER...EUREKA AND ELKO COUNTIES. SECOND...BRIEF BUT HEAVY SNOW
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORM SYSTEM DURING THE DAY...LEADING
TO ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION. IMPACT BASED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
ELKO...LANDER/EUREKA...AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES. AT THIS
TIME...ABOUT 2 TO 5 INCHES IS FORECAST IN NORTHERN ELKO
COUNTY...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES IN PORTIONS OF LANDER AND
EUREKA...SOUTHERN ELKO...AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FAVORING NORTHWEST FACING
SLOPES. MUCH COLDER AIR FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW SNOW TO ACCUMULATE
EASILY ON AREA ROADWAYS.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT SATURDAY...WITH THE SNOW ENDING. EXPECT
A MUCH COLDER DAY SATURDAY...WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING ALL DAY SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT WEATHER PHENOMENA ACCORDING TO
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURE.