Special Weather Statement, NWS Elko, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
335 AM PDT THU AUG 4 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK PACIFIC DISTURBANCE WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS
TO CENTRAL NEVADA AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN NEVADA
TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
FRIDAY AND LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PLEASANT WEATHER
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CURRENT WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
NORTHERN CALI THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF ASCENT HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD
OF THE FEATURE ACROSS NORTHERN NV THIS MORNING. VERY UNSTABLE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8 C/KM HAVE AND JUST ENOUGH MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE HAVE ALLOWED NOCTURNAL CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW -LI VALUES NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE ACCESS OF INSTABILITY THUS
CONVECTION MOVES NORTH ALONG THE NV/ID/OR BORDER BY LATE
AFTERNOON. OVERALL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED WITH NO
MORE THEN 20% COVERAGE EXPECTED. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY ACROSS THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NV...AS 700MB WINDS ARE PROGGED TO
INCREASE TO 25KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE SILVER STATE. TEMPS WILL RUN NEAR
AVERAGE AS FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM CALI.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. STRONG MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL FLATTEN OUT WHILE
SPREADING WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE SAME...WHILE A WEAK TROUGH REMAINS OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...A DRY AND WARM WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
RESULT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MID
SUMMER TIME PATTERN WILL PROVIDE BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION WHILE
TEMPERATURES AVERAGE AOA NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
HUMBOLDT/ELKO COUNTIES AS WELL AS NORTHERN HALF OF LANDER/EUREKA AND
EXTREME EASTERN WHITE PINE COUNTY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS JUST
TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT BASIN TODAY. OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH
AND SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY...
ESPECIALLY IN WHITE PINE COUNTY. THE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN HEAVY
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY TODAY...AS PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TROUGH CAUSES AN OUTBREAK OF DRY LIGHTNING ACROSS FWZ
467/478/469...IN ADDITION TO GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES ACROSS
FWZ 455. EXPECTING DRY LIGHTNING AREAL COVERAGE OF AROUND 20%
TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE FIRE WX ZONES MENTIONED ABOVE...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE ZONES BY MIDDAY. SOME RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS...BUT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE CORE OF THE STORM AND WILL
REMAIN BELOW .05". HAD QUITE A FEW FIRE STARTS LAST NIGHT AROUND
THE ELKO AREA...WITH SLOW STORM MOTION. STORM MOTION HAS INCREASED
SINCE THEN...SO FEEL STORMS WILL BE EVEN DRIER...IN ADDITION TO
GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL NV BY MIDDAY...AS STRONG WINDS ALOFT MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. LOOKS TO BE A LOW END WARNING EVENT...WITH
MAX WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING
AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST.

WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO RETURN ON FRIDAY AND LAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAYS ON THE HORIZON.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR HUMBOLDT
COUNTY...NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND
NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR WHITE PINE COUNTY.

&&

95/89/89/95

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1248 PM PDT THU AUG 4 2011

NVZ031-042030-
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY NV-
1248 PM PDT THU AUG 4 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY UNTIL
130 PM PDT...

AT 1243 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES WEST OF
JACKPOT TO 22 MILES NORTHWEST OF MONTELLO...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT
20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
   JACKPOT...
   RURAL NORTHEAST ELKO COUNTY...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4173 11402 4148 11403 4135 11458 4201 11492
      4201 11418
TIME...MOT...LOC 1947Z 260DEG 13KT 4197 11477 4145 11450

TURNER