Special Weather Statement, NWS Elko, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1015 AM PDT TUE AUG 2 2011

.SYNOPSIS...LINGERING MONSOON MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH A TROUGH
TO THE WEST TO RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE A BIT LESS NUMEROUS OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR THE 18Z TAFS...SCATTERED CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO IMPACT AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SUFFICIENT MONSOON MOISTURE PERSISTS FOR SCT -TSRA AND IT APPEARS
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME STRONG/ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. CUMULUS ALREADY BUILDING OVER CENTRAL NEVADA AS OF
10 AM. FOR NOW...MENTIONED VCTS/CB AT ALL TAF SITES STARTING AT
19Z. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST THAT CONVECTION WILL AFFECT KEKO
TERMINAL...SO MAINTAINED A TEMPO GROUP FOR KEKO FOR -TSRA/GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS FROM 19Z-23Z. STRONGEST CONVECTION TO FAVOR NE
NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WHERE SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 45 KTS...SMALL HAIL...AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. TAF AMENDMENTS AND FURTHER TEMPO GROUPS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. TURNER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 804 AM /

SYNOPSIS...LINGERING MONSOON MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH A TROUGH
TO THE WEST TO RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE A BIT LESS NUMEROUS OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.

UPDATE...SPOTTY SHOWERS AND EVEN A STRAY THUNDERSTORM ARE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND JET STREAK. PLENTY OF MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LINGERING ACROSS
THE REGION WITH MODEL PWAT'S OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE CWA
EXPECTED TO LINGER ALL DAY...WITH CAPE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 500
TO 1000 J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION /ESPECIALLY NORTHEASTERN
NEVADA/ AND NEGATIVE LI'S ACROSS THE BOARD. THUS...HAVE
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED POPS FOR TODAY AND ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS TODAY LOOK REASONABLE AND WERE NOT ALTERED. NO
CHANGES BEYOND TODAY AT THIS TIME. RCM

FIRE WEATHER...INCREASED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE
DISTRICT TODAY AS LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. EXPECT A MIX OF WET AND DRY STORMS...BUT
WHEN COMBINED WITH RECENT RAINS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...DO
NOT EXPECT THAT A RED FLAG WARNING FOR DRY LIGHTNING WILL BE
NECESSARY. RCM

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 352 AM /

SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST...SHIFTING MONSOON MOISTURE
EASTWARD. INCREASINGLY DRIER WEATHER IS PROJECTED AS THE WEEK
UNFOLDS.

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
COMMENCE WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER TEXAS AND THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND WITH A LONGWAVE TROF MOVING INTO THE WEST.
THE 588 DAM WILL BISECT NEVADA...BUT AS TIME ELAPSES...THIS
BENCHMARK WILL SINK SOUTHEASTWARD THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...SIGNALING A DROP IN UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER THE LKN
CWA. TODAY...THE APEX OF MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD...ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH EMPHASIS ON THE EASTERN ZONES. THE JET WILL MOVE
ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA TODAY AND EXIT THE LKN CWA ON WEDNESDAY. BY
18Z TODAY...THE NAM12 HAS WIDESPREAD -1 TO -3 LIFTED INDICES...AND
200 TO 400 J/KG OF CAPE...A DRASTIC REDUCTION IN BOTH VARIABLES
FROM THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS...BUT STILL ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN
CONVECTION. PWS HAVE ALSO DECREASED...NOW RANGING FROM .50 TO .80
OF AN INCH. NUMEROUS INVERTED V SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
ANTICIPATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BETTER
CONVECTIVE INGREDIENTS MATERIALIZING OVER THE EASTERN ZONES.
ANEMIC PWS WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL NEVADA ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT STARTS WITH LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF THE UNITED STATES WITH A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC WEST. A
MAINLY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SCOUR MOISTURE EASTWARD.
1000-500 MB MUCAPE VALUES REMAIN AROUND 500-1000 J/KG OVER THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA AND SO HAVE KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR ELKO AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES. THURSDAY COULD BE
SOMEWHAT INTERESTING AS MODELS SHOW CAPE VALUES OF 400-800 J/KG OVER
THE EAST...WITH ABOUT 40 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR IN THE SAME AREA. MODEL
SOUNDINGS DURING THIS TIME SHOW DRYING TAKING PLACE OVER WHITE PINE
COUNTY...BUT BECOMING MORE MOIST OVER NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY ALONG
WITH FAIRLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. HAVE RAISED POPS OVER IN THE EAST
AS A RESULT. SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY. MODELS SHOW THE DRY AIR
CONTINUING TO INFILTRATE THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A 700-500MB
CIRCULATION SETS UP OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA WHICH WILL HELP TO CUT OFF
ANY SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM SOUTHERN CA/SOUTHERN NV AND THE
WESTERLIES REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SHUNT EVERYTHING EAST THROUGH THE
REMAINING PERIOD. LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REMAIN IN THE LOW 90S
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED.

AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...KEKO AND KELY. ISOLD -TSRA POSSIBLE AT KTPH...BUT WITH 10%
CHANCE WILL KEEP CB IN TAF. GUSTY OUTFLOWS WITH WINDS VRB20G40KT
POSSIBLE WITH STORMS...ALONG WITH REDUCTIONS TO MVFR FOR VSBY DUE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND BLOWING DUST. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24-HOUR PERIOD.

FIRE WEATHER...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EFFECTIVELY CUT OFF
MONSOONAL FLOW...MILD PATTERN ON TAP. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DEPICTS A DRY SLOT OF AIR ENTERING THE SILVER STATE AS HIGH
PRESSURE GETS PUSHED EASTWARD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY...BUT DRIER CONDITIONS ARE PROJECTED AS
MONSOON MOISTURE GETS SHIFTED EASTWARD. VERY POOR RH RECOVERY AT
NIGHT ANTICIPATED BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
717 PM PDT MON AUG 1 2011

NVZ013-030>037-020330-
NORTHERN NYE COUNTY-HUMBOLDT COUNTY-NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY-
EXTREME EASTERN ELKO COUNTY-RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE-
WHITE PINE COUNTY-
NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-
SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-
717 PM PDT MON AUG 1 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
NEVADA...NORTH CENTRAL NEVADA...NORTHEAST NEVADA...NORTHWEST
NEVADA AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE MONSOON SURGE IS COMING TO A CLOSE FOR THE WESTERN GREAT
BASIN...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING BUT WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY WITH A DRYING TREND
PROJECTED AS THE WEEK UNFOLDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT WEATHER PHENOMENA ACCORDING TO
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1152 AM PDT TUE AUG 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 16 SSW PARADISE VALLEY  41.29N 117.66W
08/01/2011                   HUMBOLDT           NV   PUBLIC

            TWO SMALL PIECES OF METAL ROOFING BLEW OFF A HOME AND AN
            ADJACENT HOUSE TRAILER. ONE PIECE OF METAL ROOFING LANDED
            APPROXIMATELY 100 FEET FROM THE STRUCTURES.

&&

MFITZSIM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
225 PM PDT TUE AUG 2 2011

NVZ032-036-022200-
NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY NV-SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY NV-
225 PM PDT TUE AUG 2 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL EUREKA AND SOUTHERN ELKO
COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM PDT...

AT 222 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PINE VALLEY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
   PINE VALLEY...
   STATE HIGHWAY 278 NEAR PINE VALLEY...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4062 11616 4044 11589 4029 11615 4039 11634
TIME...MOT...LOC 2124Z 227DEG 13KT 4041 11617

TURNER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
245 PM PDT TUE AUG 2 2011

NVZ032-034-036-022230-
NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY NV-RUBY
MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE NV-SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO
COUNTY NV-
245 PM PDT TUE AUG 2 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN EUREKA AND SOUTHERN ELKO
COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM PDT...

AT 240 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM PALISADE TO 8 MILES
EAST OF JIGGS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
   LEE...
   CARLIN...
   SPRING CREEK...
   ELKO...
   SOUTH FORK RESERVOIR...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4092 11600 4071 11512 4034 11546 4055 11637
TIME...MOT...LOC 2143Z 217DEG 15KT 4060 11619 4044 11550

TURNER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
254 PM PDT TUE AUG 2 2011

NVZ033-022245-
EXTREME EASTERN ELKO COUNTY NV-
254 PM PDT TUE AUG 2 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY UNTIL
345 PM PDT...

AT 249 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 26 MILES EAST OF CURRIE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  U.S. HIGHWAY 93 SOUTH OF WENDOVER...
  RURAL SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4029 11417 4038 11438 4069 11422 4062 11403
      4040 11403
TIME...MOT...LOC 2153Z 201DEG 10KT 4038 11427

TURNER