Tropical Storm Warning 1013, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
356 PM CDT THU SEP 1 2011

.SHORT TERM...

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. ALL OF THE
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...ALONG WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS FROM
OFFSHORE BUOYS AND RIGS...INDICATE THAT A CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO
FORM LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND CONTINUED STRONG SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS...IT
WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME FOR THE LOW TO BECOME ORGANIZED INTO A
TRULY TROPICAL SYSTEM. IN FACT...IT WILL MOST LIKELY BE MORE OF A
HYBRID SYSTEM TOMORROW AS THE LOW MORPHS INTO A WARM CORE SYSTEM.

EXPECTING THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE SOMETIME ON
SATURDAY OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. ALL OF THE TROPICAL
AND SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS THINKING.
HOWEVER...DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLOW. EXPECT STRONG
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH
HIGH POPS. PW VALUES RUNNING IN EXCESS OF 2.5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
BEGINNING TOMORROW AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECTING
HIGHLY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SO
FLOODING WILL BE CONCERN...WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 INCHES OR
MORE POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HAVE KEPT THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE FOR THE SOUTHSHORE AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI
AND HAVE EXTENDED THE WATCH TO INCLUDE THE NORTHSHORE AND BATON
ROUGE. ADDITIONALLY...THE STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
PILE WATER UP ON SOUTH AND EAST FACING SHORES. TIDES ARE ALREADY 1
TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL AT SEVERAL TIDE GAGES...AND SHOULD RISE TO
UP TO 3 FEET ABOVE BASED ON THE EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE
GUIDANCE. THESE TIDE LEVELS...HAVE PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT UPGRADE TO
A WARNING SOMETIME TOMORROW. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN MUCH AGREEMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS MIND...CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED EVER SO
SLIGHTLY IN THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A
LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY SINCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS NOT
FORMED YET...AND WEAK STEERING CURRENTS WILL BE IN PLACE. IN ANY
EVENT...IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW WILL LINGER OFF THE LOUISIANA
COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP HEAVY RAINFALL AND ABOVE
NORMAL TIDES IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY ACROSS THE CWA.
SOME FLOODING WILL BE CONCERN ALONG AREA RIVERS...ESPECIALLY WHERE
THEY MEET THE COASTAL INTERFACE. BOTH OF THE MODELS INDICATE THAT
A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DIG INTO THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE NATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IF THIS HOLDS
TRUE...THE TROUGH SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO LIFT THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE TO THE NORTH AND EAST TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. IT
IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT BOTH MODELS ALSO SHOW THE SYSTEM
MORPHING BACK INTO A MORE BAROCLINIC FEATURE WITH A WELL DEFINED
DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW. IF THIS
OCCURS...RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A RISK INTO WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH RAINFALL RATES AND COVERAGE SHOULD FALL OFF
DRAMATICALLY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...BIGGEST ISSUE FROM TAFS NOW IS INCOMING PRECIP FROM OUR
TROPICAL WAVE AND INCREASING WINDS IN THE LL. NOT EXPECTING ANY MORE
IMPACT FROM SMOKE AND LOOK FOR RAIN TO BE THE MAIN VIS ISSUE. CLOUD
BASES WILL LIKELY BE B/T 1500 AND 3K FT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND TOMORROW.  /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...CONDITIONS HAVE DETERIORATED THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND
TODAY AND EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN IN PLACE IF NOT WORSEN.
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE GULF IS SLOWLY COMING TOGETHER AND THIS SHOULD
GET WIND OF AT LEAST 30-35KTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS. WE
HAVE ALREADY HAD NUMEROUS GUST OF 40-45KTS ON THE PLATFORMS AND SEA
HGTS AT BUOY 42040 HAVE HIT 9 FT ALREADY. SE-SSE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 60 HRS AND THIS IS HELPING TO
GENERATE A SWELL ACROSS THE GULF AND AS THE WINDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE LOOK FOR SIG SEA HGTS OF 11-14 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS. WITH
THIS WE WILL UPGRADE THE SCY TO A GLW FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SAT FOR
THE INNER AND OUTER WATERS...SCY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THE TIDAL
LAKES AND SOUNDS AS OF THIS MOMENT. OF COURSE IF THE TROPICAL WAVE
GETS ORGANIZED AND BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE THEN THE GLW WILL BE
DROPPED AND REPLACED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY AND WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE COASTAL
WATERS INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. /CAB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  75  88  75  83 /  20  40  60  80
BTR  77  89  76  85 /  30  70  80  80
ASD  78  88  77  85 /  40  80  80  80
MSY  79  88  78  87 /  50  80  80  80
GPT  78  88  77  86 /  40  80  80  80
PQL  77  88  76  86 /  40  80  80  80

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...EAST BATON
     ROUGE...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER
     LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
     TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA...ST.
     CHARLES...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST.
     TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER
     PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...UPPER TERREBONNE...AND
     WEST BATON ROUGE.

     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ASCENSION...LIVINGSTON...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER
     LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
     TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA...ST.
     CHARLES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...UPPER
     JEFFERSON...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE
     PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     HANCOCK...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     HANCOCK...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE
     PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

32

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LAZ060>062-011845-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
122 PM CDT THU SEP 1 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING WEST AFFECTING ORLEANS...UPPER
JEFFERSON AND ST. CHARLES PARISH...

AT 119 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR NEW ORLEANS...OR ABOUT 3 MILES EAST OF
BRIDGE CITY...MOVING WEST AT 25 MPH.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...WESTWEGO...
BRIDGE CITY...METAIRIE...AVONDALE...HARAHAN...WAGGAMAN...KENNER...NEW
ORLEANS ARMSTRONG AIRPORT...NORCO...NEW SARPY...HAHNVILLE...DESTREHAN
AND BOUTTE

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS STORM IS WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40
MPH...WHICH COULD DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THIS STORM
HAS PASSED.

OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF
OUTDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE
INDOORS IF POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS
AND AVOID USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY.

95/DM

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