Special Marine Warning 113, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
321 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
RATHER WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE AREA. WEAK MCV
MOVING WESTWARD NEAR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AT PRESENT...WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. AREAL COVERAGE NOT
QUITE AS FULL AS YESTERDAY. YESTERDAYS CONVECTION DID ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO START FROM A LOWER BASE TODAY...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES BELOW THE 95 DEGREE MARK IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
WEAK UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE ROTATING IN PLACE
THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE LEVELS TOMORROW ARE SIMILAR TO
TODAY...AND EXPECT SIMILAR AREAL COVERAGE...20 TO 30 PERCENT AT
BEST. COLUMN DRIES OUT SOMEWHAT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND WILL
GRADUALLY DRY OUT FORECAST. NAM SOLUTION IS DISCOUNTED FOR THIS
RUN DUE TO ITS POOR HANDLING OF TROPICAL FEATURE TO THE SOUTH OF
PUERTO RICO. TEMPERATURES STILL RUNNING ABOVE GUIDANCE...EVEN IN
AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN RAIN THE LAST FEW DAYS...SO WILL CONTINUE TO
GO ABOVE GUIDANCE BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM...
AS NOTED IN SHORT TERM SECTION...TROPICAL FEATURE HANDLED POORLY
BY NAM. NHC/HPC SOLUTION ON MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE FITS ECMWF
SOLUTION FAIRLY WELL AND WILL USE ECMWF WIND FIELDS FOR SOLUTION
FOR THE BACK END OF THE FORECAST. ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE
WEEKEND SHOULD BE EXTREMELY LIMITED...AND WILL KEEP WEEKEND
FORECAST DRY. AS RIDGE RETROGRADES SOMEWHAT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...THIS MAY ALLOW A BOUNDARY TO NEAR THE AREA
MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF GOING SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE UNTIL GUIDANCE COMES MORE IN LINE WITH
REALITY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IS ON TAP FOR MOST OF THE DAY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WITH TEMPO RESTRICTED VSBYS/CIGS THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES EXPECTED FROM KMCB- KHDC TO
KASD TO KGPT. MVFR CONDITION LIKELY AGAIN WITH MIST RESTRICTED
VISIBILITY AT EACH SITE 09Z WED THROUGH 13Z WED. EXPECT ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO AGAIN DEVELOP AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED CONVECTION...NO MAJOR MARINE ISSUES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. TROPICAL FEATURE MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD HAVE LITTLE
EFFECT ON OUR COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  94  70  94 /  20  30  20  20
BTR  72  96  71  95 /  20  30  20  20
ASD  73  93  71  93 /  20  30  20  20
MSY  75  94  74  94 /  20  30  20  20
GPT  74  92  73  93 /  20  30  20  20
PQL  73  94  71  93 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

35

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
329 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2011

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-082030-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-
WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-
ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
329 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL WATERS
OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...GENERALLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 AND 12
CORRIDORS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. THESE WINDS COULD DOWN SMALL TREE
LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED OBJECTS LIKE TRASH CANS AND LAWN
FURNITURE. LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

AN OZONE ACTION DAY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BATON ROUGE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

FLOOD WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL POINTS ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI AND ATCHAFALAYA RIVERS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...BUT COULD
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

AN OZONE ACTION DAY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE BATON ROUGE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY FROM 6 AM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

FLOOD WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL POINTS ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI AND ATCHAFALAYA RIVERS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...ANY REPORTS OF
SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING OR WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE RELAYED TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

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