Small Craft Advisory 75, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
420 AM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

.SHORT TERM...
WILL BE ISSUING A WINTER STORM WATCH THIS MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN
MOST TIER OF COUNTIES AND PARISHES ALONG THE MISS/LA STATE LINE.
THIS WILL BE MAINLY FOR MODERATE OR POSSIBLY HEAVY SLEET SUNDAY.
SOME LIGHT SLEET MIXED WITH RAIN MAY PRESENT ITSELF EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING BUT SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM. AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY RAIN WILL MIX WITH SLEET DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY BEFORE
BECOMING ALL SLEET LATE SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING. SFC TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO COOL AS SOME RAIN WILL STILL BE PRESENT WITH MOSTLY
SLEET SUN EVENING CAUSING FREEZING RAIN CONDITIONS FOR A SHORT
TIME SUN EVENING. IF THIS SITUATION OCCURS...IT WILL POSE A GREAT
RISK TO PERSONS TRAVELING THROUGH THE WATCH AREA SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. THOSE EXPECTING TO TRAVEL DURING THIS TIME SHOULD
STAY UPDATED WITH THE LATEST FCAST CONCERNING THIS WX SCENARIO.

TO THE SOUTH OF THE WATCH AREA...SOME SLEET MAY MIX INTO SOME
AREAS NORTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN BUT AT THIS TIME IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A PROBLEM. THIS COULD CHANGE AND PERSONS IN AREAS
SOUTH OF THE WATCH SHOULD ALSO STAY UP WITH THE LATEST FCAST.

ALONG AND SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE CONCERN. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY ENOUGH AT
TIMES TO CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING OF RAINWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS
WITH POOR DRAINAGE. ALONG THE COASTAL PARISHES OF SE LA...THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TS WILL EXIST AS THIS AREA MOVES INTO THE
WARM SECTOR SUNDAY. THE COASTAL WATERS WILL HAVE THE LARGEST RISK
OF SEVERITY AS ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR. OBVIOUSLY THERE IS A LOT OF WX CHALLENGES
GOING ON WITH THIS SYSTEM AND A MYRIAD OF WEATHER ELEMENTS WILL BE
PROBABLE. AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES WITH RESPECT TO WINTER AND SEVERE
WX...PERSONS WITH TRAVEL PLANS ARE ADVISED TO KEEP UP WITH THE
LATEST FORECAST FROM YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET.

.LONG TERM...
NOT A LOT CHANGING IN THE LONG TERM. NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO AFFECT
THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. EXPECT NORTH TO NE WINDS UNDER 10 KTS.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
HAVE CONTINUED WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR COASTAL WATERS EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND SOUNDS PLUS EXCLUDING THE TIDAL LAKES. AS
WINDS FALL BELOW SCY CRITERIA TODAY...WILL HAVE EXERCISE CAUTION FOR
A FEW MORE HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE A VERY BRIEF WINDOW
OF BENIGN CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND EARLY NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON OUR COASTAL WATERS. MODELS INDICATING ABOUT A 9 MB
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN A LITTLE OVER 250 NM. THIS WILL SUPPORT
SUSTAINED WINDS CLOSE TO 40 KNOTS...MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH CONFIDENCE HIGH IN GENERAL SOLUTION...SMALL CRAFT
WATCH IS NOW OUT FOR TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND GALE WATCH FOR
COASTAL WATERS EXCEPTING LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN...MAUREPAS AND
BORGNE...FROM 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. ITS POSSIBLE THAT SCY
WILL NEED TO BE OUT EVEN EARLIER. STORM FORCE GUSTS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. SEAS WILL RESPOND TO WINDS ACCORDINGLY...
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 10 FEET LIKELY IN OUTER...UNPROTECTED
WATERS.

WHILE CONDITIONS WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT FOR MONDAY...SEVERAL
REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR WILL AID IN KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS
ELEVATED ENOUGH TO POSE PROBLEMS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

IN ADDITION TO PRODUCING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...THESE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO LEAD TO ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS
AND ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.TYPICALLY FLOOD
PRONE LOCATIONS MAY SEE TIDE LEVELS THAT ARE 2-3 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL.COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

MEFFER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  54  30  39  29 /   0  30 100 100
BTR  57  35  48  32 /   0  40 100  70
ASD  57  38  50  35 /   0  20  80 100
MSY  58  41  52  38 /   0  30 100 100
GPT  58  38  49  37 /   0  20  70 100
PQL  58  35  45  38 /   0  20  70 100

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: EAST FELICIANA...POINTE COUPEE...ST.
     HELENA...TANGIPAHOA...WASHINGTON...AND WEST FELICIANA.

     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
     PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...ORLEANS...ST.
     TAMMANY...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE PORT FOURCHON TO
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS
     OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     GALE WATCH FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS
     OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AMITE...PEARL
     RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.

     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: HANCOCK...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE PORT FOURCHON TO
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS
     OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     GALE WATCH FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS
     OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1207 PM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>040-
046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-091815-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-
TANGIPAHOA-WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-
ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-
PEARL RIVER-HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
1207 PM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL WATERS
OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT STARTING AT MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS AS WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 25
KNOTS.

ISOLATED AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR LIGHT SLEET WILL BE
POSSIBLE AFTER 3 AM TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND THE
BORDERING PARISHES OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. NO MAJOR HAZARDOUS
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER SOME MINOR ICING OF
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES COULD OCCUR TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL...
A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER COASTAL SECTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA OR THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS ON SUNDAY.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER MAINLY THE
COASTAL WATERS. A FEW OF THESE MAY MAKE IT ONSHORE BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM HOUMA TO YSCLOSKEY. THE
MAIN PROBLEM EXPECTED OVER LAND AREAS WILL BE LONG DURATION
RAINFALL THAT MAY HAVE ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OVER A 24
HOUR PERIOD SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS AREAS SOUTH
OF LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS.

STRONG WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 40 MPH AND
GUSTY NEAR THE COAST AND TIDAL LAKES SUNDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH SPEEDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS INLAND. THIS WILL
CREATE POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL ON ELEVATED ROADS AND BRIDGES
DUE TO STRONG CROSS WINDS.

THE STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL CAUSE AS MUCH AS A 2 TO 3 FEET RISE
IN WATER LEVELS OVER THE EAST FACING SHORES...MAINLY FROM BAY ST.
LOUIS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THESE RISES WOULD
RESULT IN INUNDATION OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE
HURRICANE LEVEE PROTECTION SYSTEM. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST
EAST OF PORT FOURCHON AREA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER...AND
FOR THE MISSISSIPPI COAST.

WINTER PRECIPITATION...
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE
AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A STRONG SURFACE
LOW MOVING THROUGH COASTAL SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA SUNDAY WILL CAUSE
VERY COLD AIR TO SPILL SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA PRODUCING WIDESPREAD RAIN MIXED OR
CHANGING TO ALL SLEET WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET OF UP TO A HALF
INCH POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE AS THE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING WITH MINOR ICING POSSIBLE. TRAVEL IN THESE AREAS IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME HAZARDOUS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A
WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
A LINE FROM NEW ROADS IN POINTE COUPEE PARISH TO POPLARVILLE IN
PEARL RIVER COUNTY. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS LINE...ISOLATED AREAS OF
SLEET COULD BE MIXED WITH RAIN AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT. NO WINTRY MIX
IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

MARINE...
A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT FOR MOST
OF THE COASTAL WATERS EXCEPT THE TIDAL LAKES WHERE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL EXIST. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS SUNDAY MORNING...TO 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 45 TO 50 KNOTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT. EMERGENCY MANAGERS
AND INTERESTS ARE URGED TO KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST FORECASTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNING ISSUANCES THROUGHOUT THIS WEEKEND.

22/TD