Severe Thunderstorm Warning 96, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
347 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2011

.SHORT TERM...
FRONT DEMARCATED WITH RADAR DETECTED LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY FROM HATTIESBURG TO HAMMOND TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA BASIN...AND MOVING WITH A SLOW EASTWARD DRIFT. LARGE
STATIONARY CELL OVER JACKSON COUNTY APPEARS TO BE STUCK ON SEA
BREEZE...WITH BACKWARD PROPAGATING VECTOR CHARACTERISTICS AS
LARGER SCALE SHORT-WAVE APPROACHES. RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES ARE
LIKELY HAIL CONTAMINATED WITH THAT CELL BUT IS LIKELY IN EXCESS OF
5 INCHES AT THIS TIME. CERTAINLY...THIS IS BENEFICIAL FOR DROUGHT
RELIEF IN JACKSON COUNTY...BUT NOT QUITE LARGE SCALE ENOUGH TO
BENEFIT OTHER COUNTIES/PARISHES. AREAS SOUTH OF THE TIDAL LAKES
HAVE HAD LITTLE CONVECTION AND AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
REMAINS IN PLACE TO BE TAPPED REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
WILL MAINTAIN SOME POPS THROUGH SUNSET BUT MOST ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY DISSIPATE SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

.LONG TERM...
MODELS SHOW VERY LARGE SCALE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER WESTERN
ATLANTIC BUILDING INTO THE GULF STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
BECOMING ENHANCED BY STRONG RIDGING ALOFT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT FOR QUITE SOME TIME. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FROM SUNDAY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
WILL MAINTAIN THE 10 PERCENT RAIN CHANCE EACH DAY IN HOPES OF LAKE
AND SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENTS...BUT THIS MAY BE A REACH.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL EXCEPT TEMPO LOWER CONDITIONS IN
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 01Z FOR TERMINALS EAST OF KMCB-KBTR.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERAL LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW TO BE MAINTAINED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BECOMING A LITTLE MORE EASTERLY IN TIME EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A SWELL TRAIN GENERATED THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS MAY
PRODUCE A GROUND SWELL THAT AFFECTS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS BY
MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  58  88  64  90 /  10   0   0   0
BTR  62  90  68  91 /  10   0   0   0
ASD  64  87  67  88 /  10   0   0   0
MSY  68  87  70  87 /  10   0   0   0
GPT  66  85  68  85 /  20   0   0   0
PQL  65  86  64  86 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

24/RR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
700 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2011

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>040-
046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-271800-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-
TANGIPAHOA-WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-
ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-
PEARL RIVER-HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
700 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL WATERS
OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE EARLY THIS EVENING AND PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A TORNADO.

FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND FOR
SEVERAL POINTS ALONG THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

FLOOD WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AND FOR SEVERAL POINTS ALONG THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
639 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0627 PM     HAIL             2 E SLIDELL             30.28N 89.74W
05/26/2011  E0.75 INCH       ST. TAMMANY        LA   PUBLIC

            REPORTED AT I-10 AND GAUSE BOULEVARD.

&&

PGRIGSBY

MSZ082-270030-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
642 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING EAST AFFECTING JACKSON COUNTY...

AT 637 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF ESCATAWPA...OR ABOUT 5
MILES NORTH OF VANCLEAVE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...WADE AND
ESCATAWPA

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...SUB
SEVERE HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE...AND WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH...WHICH
COULD DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK
SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE QUICK ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAZ062-064-270015-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
644 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING SOUTHEAST AFFECTING ST. BERNARD
PARISH...ORLEANS PARISH...

AT 642 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR EAST NEW ORLEANS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30
MPH.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SUB SEVERE HAIL UP TO NICKEL
SIZE AND WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH...WHICH COULD DOWN TREE LIMBS AND
BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR
BUILDING UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
645 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MANDEVILLE              30.37N 90.08W
05/26/2011                   ST. TAMMANY        LA   NWS EMPLOYEE

            LARGE TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 1088 NEAR
            CYPRESS STREET.

&&

11

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
702 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0658 PM     HAIL             EAST NEW ORLEANS        30.07N 89.93W
05/26/2011  M0.25 INCH       ORLEANS            LA   PUBLIC

            NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED IN THE IRISH
            BAYOU AREA NEAR INTERSTATE 10.

&&

11

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
703 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0658 PM     HAIL             EAST NEW ORLEANS        30.07N 89.93W
05/26/2011  M1.00 INCH       ORLEANS            LA   PUBLIC

            NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED IN THE IRISH
            BAYOU AREA NEAR INTERSTATE 10.

&&

11