Severe Thunderstorm Warning 83, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1131 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

.UPDATE...

...06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE BIGGEST CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS IS THE CHANCE FOR
STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS. AFTER
REVIEWING RADAR TRENDS...THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE OF SEEING SOME
CONVECTION AFFECT THE KBTR AND KMCB TERMINALS FROM 07-12Z. THE
CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER 12Z...AS THIS IS THE MOST
THERMODYNAMICALLY STABLE PART OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...LINGER SHOWERS
MAY IMPACT KMSY...KNEW...AND KASD FROM 10-15Z. ADDITIONALLY...SOME
LOWER CLOUDS MAY ALSO SPREAD INTO THE REGION AS THIS CONVECTION
APPROACHES...AND HAVE SOME MVFR CEILINGS MENTIONED DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. IF ANY CONVECTION PERSISTS THROUGH 18Z...IT WILL BEGIN
TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP
EAST OF THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT WINDS TO DROP OFF
AND SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION BY 00Z. SKIES SHOULD TURN
CLEAR AS DRIER AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ADVECTS INTO THE
AREA. 32

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011/

SHORT TERM...
DEEPER LAYERED MOISTURE OVER THE AREA BUT UNDER A PRONOUNCED CAP
IN THE MID LEVELS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LOW VALUED QPF
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE HIGH RES RAPID RUN SHOWING
MOISTURE DIVERGENCE UPON FRONTAL ARRIVAL...NOT GOOD FOR ONGOING
DROUGHT SITUATION. THE WRF-NMM SHOWS A BETTER COVERAGE OF
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL THURSDAY MORNING AND THE GFS IS ABOUT MIDDLE
OF THE ROAD...TENTH TO QUARTER OF AN INCH. WENT CLOSER TO GFS AND
HOPING THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL RECEIVE SOME RAINFALL WITH THIS
FRONTOLYTIC BOUNDARY. FRONT WILL LIKELY BISECT THE CWA BEFORE
STALLING AND DRIFTING NORTHWEST IN DISSIPATION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES MAY BE AFFECTED BY CLOUD COVER
THURSDAY BUT MAY ALSO UNDERGO COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IN AREAS THAT
ARE LESS CLOUDY. STILL NOT SHOWING MUCH DYNAMICS FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IMPLICATIONS...THOUGH RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY OFFER
WATERSPOUT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA LAKES AND SOUNDS.

LONG TERM...
STRONG RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST STATES THAT EXTENDS TO
THE MID-GULF STATES...THEREBY MAINTAING A LENGTHY STRETCH OF DRY
AND HOT DAYS THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY WORSEN...BUT DEPENDENT ON ACTUAL RAINFALL FROM THURSDAY
FRONTAL FOCUS. 24/RR

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. A FEW
HOURS OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. WIND GUSTS
EXPECTED TO DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET WITH WINDS EASING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS
OVER NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA THURSDAY...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...SO NO MENTION IS MADE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. 95/DM

MARINE...
LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE FRONT STALLING BEFORE EVER REACHING
THE SOUTHEAST LOUSISIANA COASTAL WATERS. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF NORTHERLY COMPONENT WINDS DUE TO ONGOING
CONVECTION...BUT A RETURN TO OR CONINUATION OF SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
LIKELY BE MAINTAINED THURSDAY...THEN A LONG STRETCH OF ONSHORE
FLOW. A DEEPER LAYERED EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE MIDDLE BAND OF
GULF MAY PRODUCE AN ENHANCED SWELL TRAIN IN TIME THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAITS THAT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
24/RR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  87  63  89 /  30  40  10  10
BTR  73  90  66  89 /  20  40  10   0
ASD  72  88  68  87 /  10  40  20  10
MSY  74  87  73  87 /  10  30  10  10
GPT  73  87  69  87 /  10  30  20  10
PQL  73  87  68  87 /  10  30  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
600 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>040-
046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-261800-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-
TANGIPAHOA-WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-
ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-
PEARL RIVER-HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
600 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL WATERS
OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND ALL
BUT THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE OUTLOOK AREA. ALTHOUGH SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED...ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS.

FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND FOR
SEVERAL POINTS ALONG THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND THEN STALLS OVER
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE.

FLOOD WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AND FOR SEVERAL POINTS ALONG THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

LAZ035>037-MSZ068>070-260730-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
127 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING EAST AFFECTING AMITE COUNTY...WILKINSON
COUNTY...ST. HELENA PARISH...EAST FELICIANA PARISH...WEST FELICIANA
PARISH...PIKE COUNTY...

AT 124 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 21 MILES NORTH OF JACKSON...OR ABOUT OVER
WOODVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...SPILLMAN...
CROSBY...NORWOOD...CENTREVILLE...GLOSTER...CLINTON...FELPS...
LIBERTY...DARLINGTON...EASLEYVILLE...GREENSBURG AND GILLSBERG

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...PEA TO
DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH...WHICH COULD DOWN
TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A
SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.