Severe Thunderstorm Warning 180, NWS New Orleans, LA

845 
WWUS54 KLIX 281816
SVSLIX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
116 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2011

MSC109-281830-
/O.CON.KLIX.SV.W.0180.000000T0000Z-110928T1830Z/
PEARL RIVER MS-
116 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN PEARL RIVER COUNTY...

AT 108 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTH OF POPLARVILLE...MOVING EAST AT
25 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RURAL PEARL RIVER COUNTY AT 130 PM CDT

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND 
LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY! 
LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU 
CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3096 8934 3089 8933 3077 8939 3084 8960
      3086 8966 3101 8959 3102 8955 3100 8947
      3099 8946 3099 8945
TIME...MOT...LOC 1816Z 289DEG 20KT 3091 8952

$$


24/RR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
735 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2011

.UPDATE...

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

NO PROBLEMS WITH THE FLIGHT THIS MORNING. AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
AND VERY UNSTABLE SOUNDING THIS MORNING WITH A PW OF 1.88 INCHES
AND AN LI OF -11.3. A SLIGHT RISK FOR SMALL HAIL AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING STRONG DOWNBURSTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
500 MB TEMPERATURE AT -12 DEGREES CELSIUS. SHEAR IS VERY MINIMAL
WITH A PREDOMINATE LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE
SURFACE UP THROUGH THE UPPER LEVELS.

GP

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2011/

SHORT TERM...
17
TS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO FIRE ALONG THE 850MB BOUNDARY. THIS AREA
WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD TODAY GIVING OUR AREA A CHANCE OF TSTMS. THE
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF THU. WE WILL SEE A
STRONG COOL AIR SURGE INTO THE AREA AS A REINFORCING STRONGER SFC
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SOME MUCH COOLER (~15 DEGREES) CONDITIONS. THE COOL AIR
WILL BE OVERTOPPED BY CLOUDINESS BY TUE PROLONGING THE COOL
WEATHER. NOT SURE HOW FAR NORTH THE OVERCAST CONDITIONS WILL BE BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND SO NO TEMP CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO
THE EXTENDED. MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE SOME LIGHT RAINFALL AS WELL BY
THE END OF THE FCAST PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH
THE DEEP EASTERLIES THAT ARE STUBBORN TO LEAVE.

AVIATION...
SPORADIC CLOUD HEIGHTS CAN BE EXPECTED MUCH OF TODAY. MOST TAF SITES
CURRENTLY HAVE VFR BUT LIFR AND IFR HAVE BEEN OBS AT HUM AND GPT AT
TIMES THIS MORNING. MID LEVEL DECK WILL DOMINATE TODAY WITH LOWERING
CIGS TO MAINLY MVFR WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED. PROB30 HAS
BEEN PUT MOST TAFS FOR LATE MORNING THRU AFTN FOR STORMS. ACTIVITY
MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND THUS MAY NEED TO EXTEND THIS.
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT AND WESTERLY THRU THE PERIOD OTHER THAN
GUSTS DURING STORMS.

MEFFER

MARINE...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
GRADUALLY NUDGE WESTWARD THRU TOMORROW. AT THAT POINT...WINDS WILL
BECOME VARIABLE TO SLIGHTLY NORTHERLY AS A BOUNDARY MOVES TOWARDS
THE COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT SEAS OF 2 FEET OR LESS TODAY AND THURSDAY
BUT MAINLY NO MORE THAN A FOOT. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AFTN/EVN. THE COLD AIR BEGINS
ADVECTING FRIDAY NIGHT AND THUS WINDS/SEAS TO PICK UP.  MODERATE TO
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. EXERCISE CAUTION LOOKS TO BE LIKELY WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF MAINLY MARGINAL ADVISORY CONDITIONS AT LEAST IN THE
OUTER WATERS.

MEFFER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  88  62  88  63 /  30  10  10  10
BTR  89  68  90  65 /  30  20  10  10
ASD  89  63  88  64 /  30  20  10  10
MSY  88  70  89  70 /  30  20  10  10
GPT  88  68  89  66 /  30  20  10  10
PQL  88  63  89  63 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
947 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2011

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-291500-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-
WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-
ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
947 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY HOWEVER
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. MAIN CONCERN FROM ANY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WILL BE LARGE HAIL...GUSTY TO DAMAGING
WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL.

THERE WILL BE AMPLE INSTABILITY AND DECENT FORCING TO WORK WITH
TODAY AND THIS WILL LEAD TO THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME QUITE
INTENSE LEADING TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IS POSSIBLE
BEHIND A COLD FRONT STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT LIKELY BUT MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. AFTERWARDS ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH
TUESDAY...OCTOBER 4TH.

CAB