River Flood Warning 5, NWS New Orleans, LA

598 
WGUS84 KLIX 060310
FLSLIX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
910 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
LOUISIANA...
 
  TCHEFUNCTE RIVER ABOVE US HIGHWAY 190 NEAR COVINGTON AFFECTING ST. 
  TAMMANY PARISH 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FORECAST CRESTS ARE BASED UPON RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED ALONG WITH 
ANTICIPATED RAIN FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECASTS 
WILL BE MADE IF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS.

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  REMEMBER...TWO FEET OF
RUSHING WATER CAN CARRY AWAY MOST VEHICLES INCLUDING PICKUPS.  TURN 
AROUND AND DON'T DROWN.

A FOLLOWUP PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED LATER. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER 
RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE PROVIDER...FOR 
THE LATEST INFORMATION.  THE LATEST GRAPHICAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION 
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV.

&&

LAC103-062110-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-110307T1800Z/
/CUSL1.1.ER.000000T0000Z.110306T1200Z.110307T1200Z.NO/
910 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2011

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE FLOOD WARNING 
   CONTINUES FOR
  THE TCHEFUNCTE RIVER ABOVE US HIGHWAY 190 NEAR COVINGTON.
* UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  5:30 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 21.8 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RISING UNTIL CRESTING AT 
  AROUND 22.4 FEET BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.  THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.  
* IMPACT...AT 22.0 FEET...TCHEFUNCTE CAMP GROUNDS WILL BE UNDER A FEW 
  INCHES OF WATER. THE GOODBEE COMMUMUNITY IS THREATENED WITH 
  FLOODING. WATER WILL INVADE CAMP TCHEFUNCTE'S PARKING LOT. VEHICLES
  MUST BE REMOVED TO HIGHER GROUND. 

$$

391 
WGUS84 KLIX 061443
FLSLIX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
843 AM CST SUN MAR 6 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
LOUISIANA...
 
  THE TCHEFUNCTE RIVER ABOVE US HIGHWAY 190 NEAR COVINGTON AFFECTING ST. 
  TAMMANY PARISH
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FORECAST CRESTS ARE BASED UPON RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED ALONG WITH 
ANTICIPATED RAIN FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECASTS 
WILL BE MADE IF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS.

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  REMEMBER...TWO FEET OF
RUSHING WATER CAN CARRY AWAY MOST VEHICLES INCLUDING PICKUPS.  TURN 
AROUND AND DON'T DROWN.

A FOLLOWUP PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED LATER. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER 
RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE PROVIDER...FOR 
THE LATEST INFORMATION.  THE LATEST GRAPHICAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION 
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV.

&&

LAC103-070843-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-110307T2032Z/
/CUSL1.1.ER.000000T0000Z.110306T1800Z.110307T1432Z.NO/
843 AM CST SUN MAR 6 2011

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TCHEFUNCTE RIVER ABOVE US HIGHWAY 190 NEAR COVINGTON.
* UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 6:00 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 23.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS NEARING CREST AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 
  23.1 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FLOOD 
  STAGE BY TOMORROW MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 22.0 FEET...TCHEFUNCTE CAMP GROUNDS WILL BE UNDER A FEW 
  INCHES OF WATER. THE GOODBEE COMMUNITY IS THREATENED WITH 
  FLOODING. WATER WILL INVADE CAMP TCHEFUNCTES PARKING LOT. VEHICLES
  MUST BE REMOVED TO HIGHER GROUND.

$$

98/SO

015 
WGUS84 KLIX 070159
FLSLIX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
759 PM CST SUN MAR 6 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
LOUISIANA...
 
THE TCHEFUNCTE RIVER ABOVE US HIGHWAY 190 NEAR COVINGTON AFFECTING ST. 
TAMMANY PARISH 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FORECAST CRESTS ARE BASED UPON RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED ALONG WITH 
ANTICIPATED RAIN FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECASTS 
WILL BE MADE IF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS.

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  REMEMBER...TWO FEET OF
RUSHING WATER CAN CARRY AWAY MOST VEHICLES INCLUDING PICKUPS.  TURN 
AROUND AND DON'T DROWN.

A FOLLOWUP PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED LATER. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER 
RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE PROVIDER...FOR 
THE LATEST INFORMATION.  THE LATEST GRAPHICAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION 
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV.

&&

LAC103-071959-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-110308T0024Z/
/CUSL1.1.ER.000000T0000Z.110306T1900Z.110307T1824Z.NO/
759 PM CST SUN MAR 6 2011

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL MONDAY EVENING...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE TCHEFUNCTE RIVER ABOVE US HIGHWAY 190 NEAR COVINGTON.
* UNTIL MONDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  6:00 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 22.3 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER HAS ALREADY CRESTED AND IS EXPECTED TO FALL 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 22.0 FEET...TCHEFUNCTE CAMP GROUNDS WILL BE UNDER A FEW 
  INCHES OF WATER. THE GOODBEE COMMUMUNITY IS THREATENED WITH 
  FLOODING. WATER WILL INVADE CAMP TCHEFUNCTE'S PARKING LOT. VEHICLES
  MUST BE REMOVED TO HIGHER GROUND.

$$

988 
WGUS84 KLIX 071630
FLSLIX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
1030 AM CST MON MAR 7 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
LOUISIANA...
 
  THE TCHEFUNCTE RIVER ABOVE US HIGHWAY 190 NEAR COVINGTON AFFECTING ST.
  TAMMANY PARISH

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FORECAST CRESTS ARE BASED UPON RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED ALONG WITH 
ANTICIPATED RAIN FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECASTS 
WILL BE MADE IF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS.

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  REMEMBER...TWO FEET OF
RUSHING WATER CAN CARRY AWAY MOST VEHICLES INCLUDING PICKUPS.  TURN 
AROUND AND DON'T DROWN.

A FOLLOWUP PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED LATER. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER 
RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE PROVIDER...FOR 
THE LATEST INFORMATION.  THE LATEST GRAPHICAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION 
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV.

&&

LAC103-071700-
/O.CAN.KLIX.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-110308T0024Z/
/CUSL1.1.ER.000000T0000Z.110306T1900Z.110307T1503Z.NO/
1030 AM CST MON MAR 7 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE TCHEFUNCTE RIVER ABOVE US HIGHWAY 190 NEAR COVINGTON.
* AT 10:00 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 19.8 FEET. 
* THE RIVER FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 9:03 AM MONDAY.
* THE FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FALL TO 15.1 FEET BY 
  TOMORROW MORNING. ADDITIONAL RISES ARE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER AS ADDITIONAL
  RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN AND NEAR THE BASIN ON TUESDAY EVENING AND
  WEDNESDAY.

$$

98/SO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
404 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2011

.SHORT TERM...

A CONVERGENCE ZONE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. IT APPEARS THAT THIS
CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED RISK OF SEEING LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN AMOUNTS...IF HEAVIER CELLS BEGIN TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME
AREA...AS SEEN OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHSHORE YESTERDAY
EVENING. HOWEVER...HAVE OPTED NOT TO PUT OUT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
DUE TO THE FAIRLY LOW THREAT OF ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EVENTS
ACTUALLY DEVELOPING.

THE HIGHEST RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUNCHES INTO THE REGION.
AFTER REVIEWING FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS...IT
APPEARS THAT THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LINEAR IN NATURE...AS
STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW IS IN PLACE BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LARGEST CONCERN WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...MOSTLY ASSOCIATED
WITH ANY BOW ECHOES THAT DEVELOP. IN ADDITION...LAPSE RATES ARE
NOMINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SOME HAIL FORMATION. AT THIS TIME...THE
LARGEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE BETWEEN NOON AND 6
PM...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 6 PM.

AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWEEPS TO THE EAST THIS
EVENING...STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION ALOFT.
EXPECT RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT
INTO THE AREA...WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES DROPPING A GOOD 100
METERS. ALTHOUGH SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW...DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL PLUNGE INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
NIGHT...AS THE DRY AIRMASS AND CLEAR SKIES LEND TO STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY BY
MONDAY...AS ONSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HOWEVER...READINGS WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...

ALL OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES ON TUESDAY. THE GFS
IS THE WEAKER OF THE MODELS...WITH A SHALLOWER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SLIDING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. THE EURO IS THE STRONGEST MODEL WITH
A VERY SHARP TROUGH AXIS SLIPPING THROUGH. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH
A BLEND OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR STRENGTH AND TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.

INITIALLY...EXPECT STRONG ONSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND AN INCREASED PROSPECT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL MAINLY BE DUE TO INCREASED UPPER LEVEL LIFT ACROSS THE
REGION...AS A BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE MOVES INTO THE
GULF SOUTH. FORTUNATELY...OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK ON
TUESDAY...DUE TO LESS THAN DESIRABLE LAPSE RATES. THUS...ONLY
EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH DEEPER CONVECTION
HOLDING OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

HEADING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...INCREASED FORCING ALOFT
IS EXPECTED AS STRONG POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION...DIFLUENT
FLOW...AND THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK ALL WORK TOGETHER
TO SUPPORT DEEPER UPDRAFTS. ADDITIONALLY...LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL
IMPROVE...AS THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
APPROACHES. THERE WILL A RISK OF STRONGER CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE WENT WITH LIKELY POPS ON
WEDNESDAY TO REFLECT THIS RISK OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WITH
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF CONTINUING...AND WARM AND MUGGY
AIRMASS IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...WITH READING CLIMBING BACK INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY DIPPING INTO THE
MIDDLE 60S.

THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA SOMETIME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWEEPS THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ONCE AGAIN...STRONG NEGATIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION AND RESULTANT SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH WILL
LEAD TO RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
ADDITIONALLY...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
DROP 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES AROUND 100 METERS MUCH AS THE CURRENT
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION. A LARGE DIURNAL RANGE IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL BE IN AND OUT AT LEAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE TS WILL BE AROUND TODAY AND THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR TWO OF THESE TO AFFECT A FEW TERMINALS.
WILL SHOW THIS AS A TEMPO GROUP TODAY. DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS UNTIL AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&

.MARINE...
THE BIG PROBLEM IS THAT WATERSPOUT ACTIVITY IS HIGHLY LIKELY TODAY
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SOME OF THESE MAY BE QUITE STRONG.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO OCCUR AND GRADIENT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TRIED TO CUT UP
THE MARINE AREAS AS EFFICIENT AS POSSIBLE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
BUT...THE SIMPLE FACT IS THAT IT COULD HAVE GOTTEN VERY MESSY.
DECIDED TO KEEP AN ADVISORY GOING AFTER 9AM FOR MOST COASTAL WATERS.
WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP FOR A TIME TODAY OVER THE LAKES AND SOUNDS BUT
DUE TO THE RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION OF THIS OCCURRING...DECIDED TO
KEEP THE ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT. THIS HOLDS
MORE FOR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS THAN OTHER AREAS.
REGARDLESS...WINDS WILL BE IN ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING A GOOD PART
OF THE TIME BEFORE AND DEFINITELY AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  38  62  35 / 100  20   0   0
BTR  71  41  64  38 / 100  10   0   0
ASD  73  42  63  35 / 100  20   0   0
MSY  72  46  62  45 / 100  20   0   0
GPT  73  43  64  36 / 100  50   0   0
PQL  74  44  64  35 / 100  50   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS
     OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LAKE BORGNE...AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND
     LAKE MAUREPAS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM THE PORT FOURCHON TO
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LAKE BORGNE...AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND
     LAKE MAUREPAS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS
     OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM THE PORT FOURCHON TO
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM.

&&

32

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
602 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2011

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>040-
046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-061215-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-
TANGIPAHOA-WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-
ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-
PEARL RIVER-HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
602 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL WATERS
OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THE
HIGHEST RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN RISK FROM SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE MORNING HOURS...MAINLY ALONG COASTAL LOUISIANA. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL OF UP TO 3 INCHES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE HEAVIEST
RAINS WILL FALL TO THE EAST OF A HOUMA TO LAPLACE TO COVINGTON TO
FRAKLINTON LINE. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER 6
PM THIS EVENING.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE POSTED FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL
WATERS...SOUNDS...AND TIDAL LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT. STRONG
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS OF UP TO 10
FEET WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE
EAST. IN ADDITION TO THE ROUGH SEAS...HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
BEYOND 20 NM THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY DUE TO CONTINUED STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS ANOTHER STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT IMPACT THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER MAY
BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT AND AGAIN NEXT WEDNESDAY...MARCH 9TH.

32

LAZ059>061-063-051400-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
703 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING NORTHEAST AFFECTING ST. CHARLES
PARISH...JEFFERSON PARISH...LAFOURCHE PARISH...PLAQUEMINES PARISH...

AT 700 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF LAROSE...OR ABOUT 11 MILES
WEST OF BARATARIA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...WAGGAMAN...
JEAN LAFITTE...BARATARIA AND AVONDALE

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS STORM IS WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH...
WHICH COULD DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS.
SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE QUICK ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAZ059>061-063-051420-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
732 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING NORTHEAST AFFECTING ST. CHARLES
PARISH...JEFFERSON PARISH...LAFOURCHE PARISH...PLAQUEMINES PARISH...

AT 720 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUE TO
DETECTED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF LAROSE...OR
ABOUT 11 MILES WEST OF BARATARIA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS MOVING OVER LAKE SALVADOR AND MAY PRODUCE
A WATERSPOUT AT ANY TIME. THE STORM WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH. ALL MARINERS AND PERSONS NEAR OR
ON LAKE SALVADOR SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR OR SHELTER UNTIL THIS
THUNDERSTORM HAS PASSED.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE QUICK ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
758 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2011

LAZ050-051815-
LIVINGSTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DENHAM SPRINGS...WALKER
758 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2011

...TICKFAW RIVER NEAR KILLIAN APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE...

THE TICKFAW RIVER NEAR KILLIAN IS APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE THIS
MORNING. ACCORDING TO THE RIVER GAGE AT SPRINGFIELD...THE CURRENT
STAGE IS 3.78 FEET. THE FLOOD STAGE IS 4.0 FEET.

AT 4.0 FEET...WATER WILL COVER LOW PLACES ALONG LOUISIANA HIGHWAY 22
AND RISE ON THE CAMP GROUNDS ALONG THE EAST BANK.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE TODAY WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS WHICH COULD CAUSE THE
RIVER TO RISE FURTHER.

STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES AND DETAILS FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN SLIDELL.

98/SO