Flash Flood Warning 25, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1223 PM CDT SAT SEP 3 2011

.AVIATION...

...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

TROPICAL STORM LEE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING INCLEMENT CONDITIONS TO
ALL OF THE TERMINALS. EXPECT PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
AROUND 00Z...WITH A DROP INTO THE THE IFR RANGE AFTER 00Z AND
PERSISTING THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE CORE OF THE TROPICAL
STORM NEARS THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT ALL LOCATIONS IN HEAVY
RAIN SQUALLS. 32

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT SAT SEP 3 2011/

SHORT TERM...
WILL KEEP IT SHORT THIS MORNING. A LARGE SHIELD OF RAIN AND SOME
TS ACTIVITY MIXED IN. RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES ARE RUNNING AROUND
2 INCHES AS AN AVERAGE OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. GREATER AMOUNTS OF
4 TO 6 INCHES ARE SHOWING UP IN ST.
TAMMANY...TERREBONNE...LAFOURCHE...JEFFERSON...AND PLAQUEMINES.
ISOLATED AREAS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES ARE FOUND IN TERREBONNE PARISH.
EXPECTE THESE TALLIES TO BE A LOT HIGHER AFTER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
FLOODING IS ALMOST A CERTAINTY WHEN SOME OF THE HEAVIER CELLS
TRAIN OVER AN AREA. THE OTHER PROBLEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE
TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS PRIME FOR THESE
FEATURES AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY MONDAY...WE SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT. DRY
AIR QUICKLY MOVES IN TUESDAY AND BRINGS US SOME VERY COMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS FOR A FEW DAYS BY MID-WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD LAST
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

AVIATION...
ALL TERMINALS WILL BE IN IFR MOST IF NOT ALL DAY. THIS WILL LAST
THROUGH TONIGHT AS WELL. SUNDAY IS NOT LOOKING ANY BETTER. RAIN
AND POSSIBLE TS AT ALL TERMINALS WITH STRONG WIND SPEEDS ON ALL RUNWAYS.

MARINE...
WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT. SW PASS JUST
REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 44 KT AND GUSTS TO 52 KT. SEAS ARE
RUNNING FROM 10 TO 13 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 7 TO 9 SECONDS.
NEEDLESS TO SAY THIS IS EXTREMELY ROUGH AND DANGEROUS. CONDITIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS
WILL COME AROUND TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION MONDAY WEST OF THE RIVER
AND GRADUALLY SPILL EAST OF THE RIVER LATE IN THE DAY.

PRELIMINARY
POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 80 74 83 74 / 100 100 100 100
BTR 80 74 83 74 / 100 100 100 100
ASD 80 75 83 75 / 100 100 100 100
MSY 81 78 84 77 / 100 100 100 100
GPT 80 75 83 76 / 100 100 100 100
PQL 81 74 84 76 / 100 100 100 100

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  83  74  80 / 100 100 100  90
BTR  74  83  74  81 / 100 100 100  90
ASD  75  83  75  83 / 100 100 100 100
MSY  78  84  77  82 / 100 100 100 100
GPT  75  83  76  84 / 100 100 100 100
PQL  74  84  76  86 / 100 100 100 100

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST
     FELICIANA...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...LOWER
     JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...LOWER TERREBONNE...NORTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA...ORLEANS...POINTE COUPEE...SOUTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA...ST. CHARLES...ST. HELENA...ST. JAMES...ST.
     JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...UPPER
     TERREBONNE...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON ROUGE...AND WEST
     FELICIANA.

     TROPICAL STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST
     FELICIANA...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...LOWER
     JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...LOWER TERREBONNE...NORTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA...ORLEANS...POINTE COUPEE...SOUTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA...ST. CHARLES...ST. HELENA...ST. JAMES...ST.
     JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...UPPER
     TERREBONNE...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON ROUGE...AND WEST
     FELICIANA.

GM...TROPICAL STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     AMITE...HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL
     RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.

     TROPICAL STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AMITE...HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL
     RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.

GM...TROPICAL STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1100 AM CDT SAT SEP 3 2011

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-041200-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-
WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-
ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
1100 AM CDT SAT SEP 3 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL WATERS
OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND COASTAL AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. FOR MORE DETAILED
HAZARD INFORMATION...REFER TO THE LATEST LOCAL HURRICANE
STATEMENTS.

WATERSPOUT AND TORNADO ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE AS THE CENTER OF
THE TROPICAL STORM LEE MOVES CLOSER TO SHORE.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING IN
ANTICIPATION OF CONTINUED FREQUENT HEAVY RAINS FROM TROPICAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE WATCH AREA INCLUDES ALL OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AS WELL AS COASTAL AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES WITH ISOLATED 20 INCH AMOUNTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.

MINOR STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL OCCUR IN AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE
HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEES...IN AREAS AROUND LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN
AND MAUREPAS...AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE MISSISSIPPI COAST AND BAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND COASTAL AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI THROUGH MONDAY. FOR
MORE DETAILED HAZARD INFORMATION...REFER TO THE LATEST LOCAL
HURRICANE STATEMENTS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING IN
ANTICIPATION OF FREQUENT HEAVY RAINS FROM TROPICAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE WATCH AREA INCLUDES ALL OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AS
WELL AS COASTAL AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES WITH ISOLATED 20 INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.

WATERSPOUT AND TORNADO ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE AS THE CENTER OF THE
TROPICAL STORM LEE MOVES CLOSER TO SHORE. THIS THREAT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.

MINOR STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL CONTINUE IN AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE
HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEES...IN AREAS AROUND LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN
AND MAUREPAS...AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE MISSISSIPPI COAST AND BAYS
THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH MONDAY...PRIMARILY
FOR COASTAL FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS. EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
AND BE PREPARED TO ACTIVATE FOR TROPICAL WEATHER OPERATIONS.