Flash Flood Warning 18, NWS New Orleans, LA

000 
WGUS74 KLIX 212049
FFSLIX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
349 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2011

LAC051-075-089-212059-
/O.CAN.KLIX.FF.W.0018.000000T0000Z-110721T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ST. CHARLES LA-JEFFERSON LA-PLAQUEMINES LA-
349 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2011

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR NORTHWESTERN
PLAQUEMINES...NORTHERN JEFFERSON AND EAST CENTRAL ST. CHARLES
PARISHES...

THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT PROMPTED THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAVE 
DISSIPATED AND FLASH FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED IN THE WARNING 
AREA. 

LAT...LON 2973 9018 2994 9030 2995 9017 2994 9013
      2991 9013 2992 9009 2984 8992 2967 8988
      2963 9001

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1229 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2011

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BROKEN OUT SOUTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 12 CORRIDOR...AND AS NOTED BELOW...CONVECTION TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA. BOTTOM LIKE FOR AVIATION CONCERNS IS THAT
SLOW MOVING CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY TERMINAL THIS
AFTERNOON. AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE RATHER SPOTTY...AND VCTS WILL BE
USED FOR NOW UNTIL IT APPEARS THAT A PARTICULAR TERMINAL WILL BE
DIRECTLY AFFECTED. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...VFR WILL BE THE RULE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE MVFR VSBYS NEAR KMCB
AROUND SUNRISE. CONVECTION APPEARS AS IF IT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE
PREVALENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BE ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE
00Z TAF PACKAGE. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2011/

UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE BUT THIS AFTERNOONS FCST IS A
LITTLE TRICKY. THERE IS A NOTICEABLE DISTURBANCE/COOL POCKET ALOFT
NOTED IN THE TROP RIGHT OVER THE REGION. THIS COULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH OF A SHOT TO GET PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE OF SHRA AND TSRA OVER
THE SWRN THIRD/HALF OF THE CWA LAND AREAS. WE ARE ALSO UNDER THE
RIDGE WHICH IS BRINGING A MAJOR HEAT WAVE TO THE CNTRL CONUS AND
THIS HAS ALLOWED AN ERLY TO BRING CONVECTION TO CNTRL MS. BOTH OF
THESE COULD PUT THE NERN HALF OF THE CWA IN A SUBSIDENCE REGION
PROVIDING VERY ISLTD ACTIVITY THIS AFTN. OF COURSE THE HIRES LOCAL
MDLS ARE REALLY NOT HINTING AT ANY FOCUS AND JUST HAVE WIDELY SCT
ACTIVITY. A FEW OF THEM ACTUALLY SHOW A LITTLE MORE ACTIVITY
ACROSS SRN MS AND PUSHING SOUTH INTO COASTAL MS THAN I WOULD
OTHERWISE THINK TODAY AND THE REASON FOR THIS COULD BE OUTFLOW
BNDRIES THAT EMANATE FROM CONVECTION THAT FIRES LATER TODAY JUST
OFF TO OUR NORTH. WITH THIS I WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS AND WEATHER COVERAGE. RIGHT ALONG THE MS COAST...COASTAL
WATERS EAST OF THE MS DELTA AND ADJACENT LA PARISHES EAST OF THE
MS RIVER LOOK FOR ISLTD COVERAGE WHILE THE WRN AND SWRN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA SEE 40-50% POPS. I WILL HOLD ONTO 30% ACROSS SRN MS IN
ANTICIPATION OF CONVECTION FROM THE NORTH WORKING SOUTH. NOT
EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER BUT AN ISLTD STRONG STORM OR TWO IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. GRIDS AND ZONES HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  93  73  91  73 /  40  20  40  20
BTR  94  75  93  75 /  40  20  50  20
ASD  92  75  91  76 /  30  20  40  20
MSY  92  77  91  77 /  30  20  50  20
GPT  91  76  91  77 /  20  20  40  20
PQL  92  73  91  75 /  30  20  40  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1137 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2011

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-221645-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-
WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-
ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
1137 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL WATERS
OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 AND
12 CORRIDORS. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
THREAT OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.