Special Weather Statement, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
626 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
RADAR SHOWS TWO CLUSTERS OF TSRA...ONE JUST N OF LFT...MOVING
ESE...ANOTHER CELL NW OF BPT...AND LINEAR W TO E OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ROUGHLY PARALLELING U.S. 190. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...THUS TEMPO
GROUP FOR TSRA THRU 03-04Z FOR BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA. FOR AEX...BELIEVE
TSRA THREAT IS OVER...WITH VCSH EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
A LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE COOL FRONT OVER NE TX WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO IFR VSBY AT AEX ROUGHLY FROM 06-10Z...AND LIFR VSBY
FROM 08-12Z FOR BPT/LCH...AND 09-13Z FOR LFT/ARA. THE FRONT WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH INLAND SE TX AROUND SUNRISE...AND SE TX/C AND S
LA BETWEEN 14-16Z...WITH NW WINDS 12G20KT EXPECTED AT ALL SITES.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST WATER VAPOR AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEPENING TROUGH
ALOFT APPROACHING THE LOWER MS VALLEY. A MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE
TRAVELING THROUGH THE WRLY FLOW WAS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT SCT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACRS THE NRN HALF OF LA. THE LEADING LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING ALONG A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FM
GREENVILLE MS TO MARKSVILLE LA. A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FURTHER
WEST...ALONG A KTUL-KJCT LINE. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WAS
OCCURRING N OF THE AREA...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER
OUR NRN TIER OF PARISHES.

DISCUSSION...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT. ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE...AND WITH WEAK SHEAR IN PLACE...SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL
REMAINS LOW. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR
TWO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM KIRBYVILLE TO BUNKIE.
KEPT A LOW END CHC FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

ACTIVITY WILL END OVER THE SERN ZONES BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.
HIGHS THURSDAY AFTN ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S...BUT
WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE RATHER COMFORTABLE. A
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE 80S.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST BY SUNDAY...WITH SRLY WINDS
GRADUALLY RETURNING TO THE AREA. TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE AS WELL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY TONIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR A SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...FOLLOWED BY A MODERATE OFFSHORE
FLOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATELY STRONG
BUT TREND MORE EASTERLY FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCES
EAST THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  64  86  55  84  55 /  30  10   0   0   0
KBPT  64  87  56  83  57 /  30  10   0   0   0
KAEX  59  84  51  82  52 /  30  10   0   0   0
KLFT  65  85  56  83  55 /  30  10   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
545 AM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-
TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-131045-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
20 TO 60 NM-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-
ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-
UPPER ST. MARTIN-CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-
LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-NORTHERN JASPER-
NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
545 AM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH THE RISK OF
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY OVER EAST TEXAS AND INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A SMALL
CHANGE OF RAIN RETURNING ON TUESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANOTHER
FRONT FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

13

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
550 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

LAZ033-044-045-122345-
ST. LANDRY LA-LAFAYETTE LA-UPPER ST. MARTIN LA-
550 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ST. LANDRY...LAFAYETTE AND ST.
MARTIN PARISHES UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

AT 549 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES
NORTH OF LEONVILLE TO CHURCH POINT...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  SUNSET AND CANKTON BY 600 PM...
  GRAND COTEAU BY 605 PM...
  LEONVILLE BY 610 PM...
  KROTZ SPRINGS AND ARNAUDVILLE BY 615 PM...
  CECILIA BY 630 PM...
  HENDERSON BY 640 PM...

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE PEA TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH...WHICH COULD DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING
UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW LYING
ROADWAYS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED
ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING.

LAT...LON 3017 9148 3030 9214 3035 9217 3043 9217
      3044 9225 3048 9224 3048 9228 3051 9230
      3064 9202 3058 9175 3051 9173 3050 9170
      3043 9163 3039 9162 3037 9164 3026 9159
      3024 9148 3019 9147

LANDRENEAU

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
647 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

LAZ033-045-130030-
ST. LANDRY LA-UPPER ST. MARTIN LA-
647 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ST. LANDRY AND ST. MARTIN
PARISHES UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

AT 641 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6 MILES NORTH OF WHISKEY BAY TO 9
MILES EAST OF CATAHOULA...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  WHISKEY BAY BY 655 PM...

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE PEA TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH...WHICH COULD DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING
UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW LYING
ROADWAYS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED
ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING.

LAT...LON 3006 9147 3009 9158 3031 9185 3051 9174
      3050 9169 3043 9163 3039 9162 3037 9164
      3026 9159 3023 9147 3020 9148 3019 9146
      3011 9147 3011 9139 3006 9136 3006 9137

LANDRENEAU

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
757 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

LAZ030-041-TXZ260-262-130200-
NORTHERN NEWTON TX-BEAUREGARD LA-CALCASIEU LA-SOUTHERN NEWTON TX-
757 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NEWTON COUNTY...SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BEAUREGARD AND CALCASIEU PARISHES UNTIL 900 PM
CDT...

AT 752 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF BANCROFT...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 25 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BANCROFT BY 805 PM...
  BIVENS BY 810 PM...
  FIELDS BY 820 PM...
  SINGER BY 830 PM...
  ORETTA BY 835 PM...
  DE QUINCY BY 845 PM...

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...PEA TO
NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH...WHICH COULD DOWN
TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A
SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3061 9329 3028 9337 3055 9385 3076 9370

RUA