Special Weather Statement, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
317 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2011

.SYNOPSIS...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN SINCE YESTERDAY. LOW
LEVEL FLOW PRETTY MUCH DOMINATED BY OUTFLOWS THIS AFTERNOON OVER
LAND WHILE EASTERLY FLOW IS INCREASING IN THE GULF WITH THE
APPROACH OF A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE.

ALOFT A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE/SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES TO AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
FEATURE IS DRIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTED EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOME INDICATIONS THAT THIS MAY
HAPPEN TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THUS WILL
KEEP SOME MENTION OF POPS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT THERE. COMBINED
EFFECT OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHEAR AXIS...TUTT LOW MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF AND WEAK EASTERLY WAVE LOOK TO BRING POPS TO A
MAX TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH GOOD CHANCES CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.
THE GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE LIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST STARTING FRIDAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES PRETTY MUCH LEFT THE SAME AS PREVIOUS FORECAST
THROUGH FRIDAY AND SOME INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES STARTING SATURDAY
AS RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN.

&&

.MARINE...
SLIGHT INCREASING IN WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS EASTERLY WAVE AND TUTT LOW CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  92  76  93  76 /  30  40  20  30  20
KBPT  75  95  75  94  76 /  10  30  10  20  10
KAEX  73  93  73  94  74 /  30  40  40  30  20
KLFT  76  91  75  92  75 /  40  50  30  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1035 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2011

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-
TXZ180>182-201-215-216-061545-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-
ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-
LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-
LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
1035 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

IF ANY OF THE DOWNPOURS OCCUR IN URBAN AREAS...THERE IS A RISK OF
SOME SIGNIFICANT PONDING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THIS WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
322 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2011

LAZ044-045-052-053-052045-
LAFAYETTE LA-UPPER ST. MARTIN LA-VERMILION LA-IBERIA LA-
322 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LAFAYETTE...VERMILION...IBERIA
AND ST. MARTIN PARISHES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

AT 320 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BROUSSARD...MOVING WEST AT 5
MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LAFAYETTE BY 335 PM...
  SCOTT BY 345 PM...

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS STORM IS WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH...
WHICH COULD DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS.
SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3005 9211 3021 9220 3028 9205 3024 9192
      3007 9187

SWEENEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
346 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2011

TXZ215-216-052115-
JEFFERSON TX-ORANGE TX-
346 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES
UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

AT 343 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF ORANGEFIELD...MOVING SOUTH
AT 10 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ORANGEFIELD BY 400 PM...
  BRIDGE CITY BY 415 PM...

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...PEA TO
NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH...WHICH COULD DOWN
TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A
SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3006 9404 3019 9383 3014 9373 2998 9380
      2996 9384 2996 9386

SWEENEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
351 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2011

LAZ041-042-051-052115-
CALCASIEU LA-JEFFERSON DAVIS LA-CAMERON LA-
351 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CALCASIEU...JEFFERSON DAVIS AND
CAMERON PARISHES UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

AT 348 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF IOWA...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT
10 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  IOWA AND LEBLEU SETTLEMENT BY 410 PM...
  HOLMWOOD BY 415 PM...

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND
GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH...WHICH COULD DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING
UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3002 9311 3022 9325 3030 9294 3015 9284

SWEENEY

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