Small Craft Advisory 78, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
251 PM CDT MON APR 4 2011

.SYNOPSIS...THE STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY 4 PM AND SHOULD ALREADY BE INTO THE LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA BASIN BY SUNDOWN. AFTER A SHARP COOL DOWN TNITE, HIGH
PRESSURE WITH MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE AREA OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM... STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM GALVESTON BAY TO
THE TOLEDO BEND DAM WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 KNOTS (51 MPH).
GETTING REPORTS OF MULTIPLE TREES DOWNED NORTH OF OUR FCST AREA
WITH THE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WE ARE
MONITORING FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS PENDING DEVELOPMENT OF THIS BAND
HOWEVER STORMS ARE HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY OVERCOMING THE CAPPING INVERSION.
PRECIP SHOULD END EARLY THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM...A BROAD AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE WESTERN STATES
LATER IN THE WEEK WILL BE HELD OUT WEST BY A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE OF RAIN BY SUNDAY
AS A PACIFIC FRONT ATTEMPTS MOVE INTO THE AREA...HOWEVER MOST OF
THE AREA SHOULD BE CAPPED WITH ENERGY RIDING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE
NEXT WEEKEND. THE EURO SHOWS A DEEPER AND COLDER TROF THIS
WEEKEND. CHOSE TO BLEND IN WARMER GFS TEMPS.

&&

.MARINE...30 KNOTS WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE FRONT SO A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SINCE STRONG GUSTS
TO 35 KNOTS SHOULD EASILY MIX DOWN OVER THE WARM WATERS. WINDS
SHOULD BE DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  43  66  43  76  62 /  20   0   0   0  10
KBPT  45  68  50  75  64 /  10   0   0   0  10
KAEX  39  65  41  79  59 /  20   0   0   0  10
KLFT  45  67  43  75  62 /  30   0   0   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...
     CALCASIEU...CAMERON...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON
     DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...RAPIDES...ST.
     LANDRY...ST. MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...VERNON.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: HARDIN...JASPER...JEFFERSON...NEWTON...ORANGE...
     TYLER.

GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA
     TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20
     NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE...VERMILION
     BAY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
438 AM CDT MON APR 4 2011

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-050945-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
438 AM CDT MON APR 4 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A STRONG COLD FRONT OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL DRIVE RAPIDLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ONLY TO SWING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BECOMING
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH
THE MAIN THREAT FROM WINDS AND HAIL. IN ADDITION STORMS TODAY WILL
PRODUCE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WITH AREA RAINFALL TOTALS
AROUND ONE INCH...TWO TO THREE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
STRONGER STORMS.

THIS LATEST FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. MUCH COOLER TONIGHT WITH SKIES
CLEARING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VERY WINDY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
DRIER AND COOLER AIR AIR WILL STREAM INTO THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO 3O YEAR CLIMO RANGE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO WARM BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE PATTERN CONTINUING INTO
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED INTO THE REGION ON
MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-050945-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-
438 AM CDT MON APR 4 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. STORMS WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND
AREA COVERAGE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS TAPERING OFF AHEAD TO THE FRONT FOR SEVERAL HOURS
ONLY TO SWING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
GALE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF RAPIDLY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

K. KUYPER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
315 PM CDT MON APR 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0314 PM     HAIL             5 S FRED                30.50N 94.18W
04/04/2011  E0.50 INCH       HARDIN             TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

JBRAZZEL