Small Craft Advisory 74, NWS Lake Charles, LA

857 
WHUS74 KLCH 081022
MWWLCH

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
422 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2011



GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475-081130-
/O.CAN.KLCH.SC.Y.0074.000000T0000Z-110308T1600Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-
422 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS CANCELLED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. 

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1130 PM CST MON MAR 7 2011

.DISCUSSION...
ADVECTION STRATUS...RATHER THAN ADVECTION FOG...REMAINS THE
CURRENT THINKING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE THE UPPER TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA COAST BY EARLY MORNING TUESDAY...AND INTO CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND THE LAKES REGION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AROUND NOON.

WINDS WIND TURN FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE
COASTAL MARSHES AND I-10 PRAIRIES DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
ADVECTION STRATUS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 925 PM CST MON MAR 7 2011/

DISCUSSION...
MOIST SRLY FLOW CONTINUES ACRS THE REGION WITH PW APPROACHING 0.8
INCHES PER 00Z SOUNDINGS AROUND THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS ARE AROUND
10 KT THIS EVENING AND NOT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH MUCH OVERNIGHT AS
GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING WERE IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S AND WITH BKN/OVC SKIES PERSISTING
TONIGHT...LOW TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE ONLY A FEW DEGREES LOWER.
CURRENT FCST IS ON TRACK WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
TEMP...DEWPOINT AND WIND GRIDS TO REFLECT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CST MON MAR 7 2011/

MARINE...
ADJUSTED WIND SPEEDS UP A FEW KNOTS AS OB SITES ALONG THE COAST
AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INDICATE SE WINDS OF 15-20 KTS. WITH
WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY UP THROUGHOUT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HAVE
GONE AHEAD AND ADDED EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE TO ENTIRE COASTAL
ZONES. UPDATED CWF HAS BEEN ISSUED. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 PM CST MON MAR 7 2011/

DISCUSSION...
AN EXTENSIVE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND REGIME COVERS MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SEPARATING LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS THE TEXAS-OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE FROM
HIGHER PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

THIS LARGE STRETCH OF SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IS TAPPING UPON CARIBBEAN
AIR...TRANSPORTING IT POLEWARD. THE INCOMING CARIBBEAN AIR IS
UPSLIDING THE RECENTLY-ARRIVED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN UPPER GULF COAST STATES.

ADVECTION STRATUS IS THE RESULT.

MVFR CEILINGS WILL LOWER THIS EVENING WITH THE SETTING OF THE
SUN...FALLING INTO THE IFR/LIFR CATEGORY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ADVECTION FOG SEEMS LESS LIKELY...DUE TO THE PERSISTENT WIND.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM CST MON MAR 7 2011/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS HAVE HUNG ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY VIRTUALLY
ASSURING THAT WE WILL NOT SEE THE SUN AGAIN UNTIL AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE ROCKIES WILL PUSH
INTO THE MIDWEST TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER TO
THE AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND STRETCHING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS FROPA WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE BEST CONDITIONS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ARE FORECAST TO SET UP FROM
LAKE CHARLES EASTWARD. SPC HAS OUTLINED ALL OF LOUISIANA IN A
SLIGHT RISK TUESDAY BUT A CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD LIMIT ACTIVITY
EARLY IN THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE PRECIP WATER RUNNING
AROUND 1.50 BY TUESDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER.
INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR WITH THIS EVENT AS
FORECAST CAPE HAS BEEN MARGINAL AT 1200-1500 J/KG.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
FRONT ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT GUSTY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND PUSHES TO THE
EAST BY FRIDAY BRINGING BACK THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE.

MARINE...
GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND TOMORROW MORNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY WEDNESDAY BRINGING CLEARING SKIES BUT GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  57  73  63  70  46 /  10  60  60  20  10
KBPT  58  74  61  70  47 /  10  50  50  20  10
KAEX  54  72  58  69  42 /  10  60  60  20  10
KLFT  57  74  64  74  47 /  10  60  70  30  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
     LA OUT 20 NM...SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY...WATERS FROM
     CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA
     EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING FROM
     20 NM TO 60 NM.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
445 AM CST MON MAR 7 2011

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-081200-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
445 AM CST MON MAR 7 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE TUESDAY THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY THANKS TO A COLD FRONT. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
BE SEVERE AND PRODUCE ISOLATED TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-081200-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-
445 AM CST MON MAR 7 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PATCHY SEA FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.