Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
403 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2011

.DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH OVER THE REGION...LEADING TO LIGHT NE
TO VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE REGION. FURTHER ALOFT...THE RIDGE
CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE SE. AFTERNOON HIGHS HAVE REACHED THE
UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 ACROSS THE REGION HAVE AIDED THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ISO TSRA JUST N AND E OF THE REGION...AND CURRENTLY MOVING E.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH STRONG
DOWNBURST WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...AND SOME HAIL POSSIBLE.

MORE OF THE SAME CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN SUN...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS
POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER...WITH 100 EXPECTED JUST NORTH
OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. WITH A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
MOVING W ACROSS THE SE INTO OUR REGION...ISO SHRA CAN BE EXPECTED
SUN...INCREASING TO SCT ON MON AS THE MOST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
BE OVER THE REGION. ONCE THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES FURTHER WEST AND
DISSIPATES...RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BACK TO ISOLATED AT BEST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SFC WINDS WILL BECOME MORE ONSHORE
BY THIS TIME...WHICH WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER/MID 90S.

DML

&&

.MARINE...
VARIABLE WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MEANDERS ACROSS THE REGION.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACK WEST ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 25-30% CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. THIS...COMBINED
WITH THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND VERY DRY GROUND FUELS...FIRE
DANGER WILL REMAIN ELEVATED. BURN BANS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS FROM EAST TO WEST
ACROSS THE REGION. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  98  73  95  74 /  20  20  20  30  30
KBPT  73  97  73  95  74 /  20  20  20  30  30
KAEX  71 100  71  98  72 /  20  20  20  30  30
KLFT  73  98  73  95  74 /  20  20  20  30  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
605 AM CDT SAT JUN 4 2011

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-051115-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
605 AM CDT SAT JUN 4 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL PROBABILITY OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY LOW...AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE. STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD.

NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. COMBINED
WITH THE HUMIDITY...APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 100 DEGREES
DURING PEAK HEATING. INDIVIDUALS ARE URGED TO USE EXTRA CAUTION
WHEN OUTDOORS AND DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS.

ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE DUE TO VERY DRY GROUND FUELS.
BURN BANS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA.

BACKWATER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER SAINT MARTIN
PARISH AS A RESULT OF RELEASES FROM THE MORGANZA SPILLWAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE OVERALL PROBABILITY OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY LOW. HOWEVER...THE RISK OF AN ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE.

WITH THE ABSENCE OF ANY MEANINGFUL AREAWIDE RAINFALL...ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE DUE TO VERY DRY GROUND FUELS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-051115-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-
605 AM CDT SAT JUN 4 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL PROBABILITY OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY LOW...AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE. STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE OVERALL PROBABILITY OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY LOW. HOWEVER...THE RISK OF AN ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

13