Severe Thunderstorm Warning 26, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
848 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

.UPDATE...
SVR WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SE TX AND SRN LOUISIANA THRU 4 AM. STORMS
ARE DEVELOPING OVER SE TX AND MOVING NE AND INTO SRN LOUISIANA
THIS EVE. THE REGION IS GETTING SQUEEZED BETWEEN A APPROACHING
COLD FRONT TO THE NW AND A WARM-FRONT LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF. THIS
WILL TRAP MOISTURE AND FORCE STORM DEVELOPMENT. BOUNDARIES WILL
MERGE WITH COLD FRONT DRIVING TO THE COAST DRG THE LATE MRNG HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 711 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011/

AVIATION...
MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS NOTED ACRS THE AREA...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT. GENERALLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA...WITH HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH KBPT BY 05Z-06Z...AND PASS KLFT AND KARA BY 09Z-
10Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LOW
CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN LIFTING DURING
THE AFTN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011/

DISCUSSION...
WARM FRONT HAS BUCKLED UP INTO PORTIONS OF ACADIANA THIS AFTERNOON
AND IS LOCATED AS OF 20Z FROM ROUGHLY 20 MILES SOUTH OF SABINE
PASS IN THE NORTHERN GULF INLAND ACROSS EASTERN CAMERON PARISH UP
TO LAKE ARTHUR...THEN EAST-NORTHEAST TO JUST NORTH OF LAFAYETTE.
SOUTHEAST OF THIS BOUNDARY...DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN TO AROUND
70F...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THIS HAS ALLOWED A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO DEVELOP WITH CAPES BETWEEN 2500 AND
3500 J/KG WITH LI'S GREATER THAN (-7). A FEW CELLS HAVE BEEN ABLE
TO BREAK THROUGH THE CAP IN ACADIANA WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS AT
ITS BEST. THESE STORMS ARE STARTING TO GROW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING THE MAIN HAZARDS.
ALSO...ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL TURN
ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES...SO SOME
ROTATING CELLS CAN NOT ALSO BE RULED OUT. CELLS SHOULD REMAIN
MAINLY SCATTERED DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS LOCATED FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS DOWN INTO
THE HILL COUNTRY OF TEXAS. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE DOWN
TO THE SOUTHEAST ENTER THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...THEN
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...MID TO
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OUT OF OLD
MEXICO ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THESE SYSTEMS...WITH THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND FRONTAL LIFT ALSO INCREASING. THEREFORE...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...LIKELY FORMING
A LINE ALONG THE FRONT. WITH COOLING AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALOFT
PROVIDED BY THE SHORT WAVE...AND SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...THERE
WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER...WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS
WITH THE LINE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW IS ACTUALLY RATHER
WEAK MEANING STORM MOTION MAY NOT BE TOO FAST. AVERAGE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 INCH OVER A MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
AN ALEXANDRIA TO LAFAYETTE LINE WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL OVERLAP.

STRONGEST SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL END DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...WITH CLOUDS AND LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS OVER-RIDING ACROSS THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE INTO MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES THROUGH.

BRIEF COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST...ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY BREEZES TO RETURN ON FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH WARM CONDITIONS.

RUA

MARINE...
MAINLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL OCCUR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE LAKES AND BAYS. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

A COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AGAIN SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BECOME RATHER STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. BRIEF
MODERATE AND GUSTY NORTHERLY GRADIENT WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR BEHIND
THE FRONT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OFFSHORE WINDS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...UNTIL WINDS
BECOME ONSHORE AGAIN ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  59  70  52  73  52 /  60  30  20  10  10
KBPT  58  70  53  73  57 /  60  30  20  10  10
KAEX  56  66  48  72  50 /  70  30  20  10  10
KLFT  59  71  52  72  54 /  70  40  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
459 AM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-
TXZ180>182-201-215-216-301000-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-
ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-
LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-
LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
459 AM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY FROM THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES
LESSER THREATS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE BUT DUE TO
THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS LITTLE OR NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A STRONG COLD FRONT MAY PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

05

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1018 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

LAZ054-055-300400-
LOWER ST. MARTIN LA-ST. MARY LA-
1018 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ST. MARY AND ST. MARTIN PARISHES
UNTIL 1100 PM CDT...

AT 1016 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER FRANKLIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CHARENTON BY 1025 PM...

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE PEA TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH...WHICH COULD DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW
AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR
BUILDING UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

LAT...LON 2977 9127 2967 9155 2982 9166 2994 9150

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1028 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1025 PM     HAIL             6 S LAKE CHARLES        30.12N 93.20W
03/29/2011  E0.25 INCH       CALCASIEU          LA   NWS EMPLOYEE

            SMALL HAIL OBSERVED OUTSIDE NWS OFFICE

&&

ML

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1039 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1037 PM     HAIL             BEAUMONT                30.09N 94.14W
03/29/2011  E0.75 INCH       JEFFERSON          TX   PUBLIC

            PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED

&&

ML

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1046 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1044 PM     HAIL             6 S LAKE CHARLES        30.12N 93.20W
03/29/2011  E1.00 INCH       CALCASIEU          LA   NWS EMPLOYEE

            NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL OBSERVED OUTSIDE NWS OFFICE

&&

ML

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1100 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1037 PM     TSTM WND DMG     KINDER                  30.49N 92.85W
03/29/2011                   ALLEN              LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORTS OF PINE TREES ACROSS 1914 MARTIN TRAMEL ROAD AND
            ROOF BLOW OFF HOME.

&&

K. KUYPER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1111 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1027 PM     HAIL             6 ENE IOTA              30.37N 92.40W
03/29/2011  E1.75 INCH       ACADIA             LA   PUBLIC

            QUARTER TO GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL

&&

JBRAZZEL