Low Water Advisory 4, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1121 AM CST MON JAN 31 2011

.DISCUSSION...
CONCERNING THE 31/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE SHOWS A SHIELD OF CLOUDS OVER EAST TEXAS AND
MUCH OF LOUISIANA.  THERE WERE SOME EXTENSIVE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ACROSS ACROSS THE REGION AROUND MID MORNING...BUT GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S EXPECT CLOUDS TO FILL IN QUICKLY.  WILL GO WITH
LOW END MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY.  WINDS WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TONIGHT...SO WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS AND
FOG. THUNDERSTORMS AND WIND GUSTS WILL BE INTRODUCED AFTER 12Z FOR
LCH...BPT...AND AEX.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST MON JAN 31 2011/

UPDATE...
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS TODAY...WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 60S MOST
LCTNS. INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE STRONGEST COLD FRONT OF
THE SEASON. CURRENT ZONES ARE FORECAST ARE FINE HAVE NO PLANS FOR
ANY UPDATES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 AM CST MON JAN 31 2011/

DISCUSSION...
CONCERNING THE 31/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
IN THE NEAR TERM...CONCERNS WILL BE WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
AND VERY LOW CEILINGS DUE TO FOG AS WET GROUNDS...LIGHT WINDS...AND
EARLIER CLEARING HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THIS PROBLEM. AREAS OF DENSE
FOG ARE NOTED OVER ACADIANA AND BOTH KLFT AND KARA WILL HAVE VLIFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO BOTH VISIBILITIES AT 1/4SM AND CEILINGS AT 100 FT.
FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE AT KAEX AND KLCH WITH
IFR LEVELS AT TIMES. KBPT REMAINS AT VFR...HOWEVER EXPECT SOME
SLIGHT LOWERING OF VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AND TO MVFR LEVELS
FOR A SHORT TIME AROUND SUNRISE.

WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT DENSE FOG TO LIFT BY MID-
MORNING...WITH NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS BY LATE MORNING.
CEILINGS...HOWEVER...ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT IFR THROUGH
THE MORNING...THEN RISING TO MVFR BY AFTERNOON.

CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER AGAIN AFTER SUNSET TO IFR
LEVELS...HOWEVER GRADIENT SHOULD TIGHTEN AS STRONG FRONT FORMS TO
THE WEST...ALLOWING FOR ENOUGH OF A SOUTHERLY WIND TO KEEP FOG AT
MORE OF A PATCHY NATURE. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO FORM DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AS STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO FORM...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ACTIVITY AT KBPT BEFORE THE END OF THIS FORECAST.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 AM CST MON JAN 31 2011/

SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WHICH WAS MOVING OUT OF THE HILL COUNTRY
OF TEXAS LAST NIGHT LOOKS TO BE STALLING IN EAST TEXAS THIS MORNING.
A STRONG COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE MOVING RAPIDLY INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WILL MERGE WITH THE STALLED FRONT AROUND
THE ARKLATEX TONIGHT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
STATES WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE OVER EAST TEXAS EARLY TUESDAY AND
WILL ACCELERATE THE STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA ON TUESDAY.
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT WITH RAIN AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
LINGERING BEHIND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL
SWEEP DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THIS AIR
WILL FILTER DOWN INTO OUR AREA AND COULD PRODUCE A HARD FREEZE
EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH REPEATED HARD FREEZES FOR SOME LOCATIONS
THURDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS AS WELL. THERE IS A CHANCE OF WINTRY
PRECIP FRIDAY AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER WEST TEXAS MOVES ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS AND INTO ARKANSAS.

SHORT TERM...DENSE FOG SHOULD LIFT BY MID-MORNING OVER ACADIANA. WENT
LOWER ON AFTERNOON TEMPS VS GUIDANCE TODAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND
HIGHER TNITE FOR THE SAME REASON. LOWERED POPS FROM PREVIOUS AND
GUIDANCE TNITE AS THE FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH LATER THEN INDICATED PREVIOUSLY.
REMOVED SEVERE WORDING FROM THE ZONES FOR TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK AS IMPRESSIVE AS EARLIER RUNS. DID
KEEP THUNDER IN WITH MAINLY SHOWERS DUE TO UPPER DIFLUENCE
CONTINUING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DRY PUNCH IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEVELOPING
FRONTAL WAVE BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE WAVE IS SLOW TO DEVELOP BY THE
TIME THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY'S HIGH COULD VERY WELL BE MONDAY'S LOWS FOR
THE NORTHERN TIER DUE TO MUCH COLDER AIR REPLACING THE WARMER AIRMASS
DURING THE MORNING FOR THOSE AREAS. TEMPS WILL NOT GET MUCH ABOVE
MORNING LOWS ON TUESDAY FOR THE I-10 ZONES. PERSISTENT MODERATE
RAINS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS DOWN EVEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS THE
RAIN DRAGS COOLER AIR TO THE SURFACE. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
NOTED LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
IMPULSES WILL EMERGE OUT OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH POSITION OVER
TEXAS FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK, MOVING OVER THE AREA WITH COLDER
AIR REMAINING AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR
FRONTAL WAVE SHOWERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE TIMING OF WHICH
HAS MUCH UNCERTAINTY.

MARINE...STRONG WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE STRONGEST NORTHESTELY WINDS LOOK TO BE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND COULD BRIEFLY REACH GALE FORCE IN GUSTS.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  71  61  63  27  43 /  10  30 100  10  10
KBPT  71  61  63  27  41 /  10  30  90  10  10
KAEX  69  61  61  27  40 /  10  30 100  10  10
KLFT  71  62  66  28  45 /  10  30 100  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
537 AM CST MON JAN 31 2011

GMZ430-432-435-LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-
011100-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-
BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-
ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-
ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-
ORANGE-
537 AM CST MON JAN 31 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AREAS OF DENSE FOG SHOULD LIFT AROUND MID-MORNING. SHOWERS WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. LOW WATER CONDITIONS ARE INDICATED
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE INLAND WATERWAYS DUE TO STRONG OFFSHORE
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

LOW WATER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT.

MODERATE RAIN WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. MUCH COLDER AIR WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE RAIN WITH
BLUSTERY NORTHERLY WINDS.

WILL NEED TO MONITOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE SUFFICIENTLY COLD THAT WINTRY PRECIP CANNOT
BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A
DEVELOPING FRONTAL WAVE OUT OVER THE GULF ARE THE MAIN CULPRITS.
HARD FREEZES ARE POSSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING RIGHT ON INTO THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475-011100-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-
537 AM CST MON JAN 31 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WINDS NOW LOOK TO BE A BIT TOO STRONG FOR DENSE FOG OUT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. CAUTION MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR WINDS GUSTING
TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATE TNITE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON TUESDAY. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT. A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.
STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SWEENEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1127 AM CST MON JAN 31 2011

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-010130-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...
NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
1127 AM CST MON JAN 31 2011

...ARCTIC COLD AIR BLAST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW...

THIS WILL BE THE LAST DAY THE REGION GETS TO EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AS TOMORROW WILL SEE THE
STRONGEST COLD FRONT OF THE SEASON COME ROARING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
GULF STATES.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE WILL PROCEED THIS
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
AS THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RATHER FAST...RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES ALTHOUGH SOME
LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE UPWARDS OF FOUR INCHES. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME
MINOR LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND DITCHES.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO EASTERN LOUISIANA AND OUT
OF THIS REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON LATE. STRONG NORTH WINDS IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL REQUIRE A HIGH WIND WARNING OVER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING THE LAKES AND BAYS.

TIDES AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL RUN ABOUT ONE TO TWO FEET ABOVE
NORMAL BUT WILL QUICKLY DRAIN OUT OF THE LAKES AND BAYS BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A LOW WATER ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
ALL MARINE CRAFT SHOULD BE ADVISED THAT SHIP CHANNELS WILL
EXPERIENCE FAST MOVING CURRENTS AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT THE DAY TOMORROW NEAR 60 BUT WILL
CLIMB ONLY A FEW DEGREES AS A RESULT OF RAINS...WINDS...AND
CLOUDS PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS COLDER AIR MOVES RAPIDLY
INTO THE REGION. A HARD FREEZE WARNING WILL BE POSTED FOR
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S ACROSS
THE LAKES REGION AND UPPER 20S ACROSS THE I-10 CORRIDOR SOUTH TO
THE COAST. MORNING LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SUNDAY WILL FINALLY SEE MORNING LOWS
ABOVE FREEZING.

FOR THOSE THAT ARE LOOKING FOR THE WHITE STUFF "SNOW"...THERE IS A
CHANCE ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

RESIDENTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA ARE ENCOURAGED
TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS FOR ANY CHANGES AND UPDATES.

JONES/KUYPER