Heat Advisory 3, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
349 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2011

.DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NRN GULF COAST
THIS AFTERNOON WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING IN PLACE FROM
THE SRN PLAINS EWD THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE RIDGE IS HELPING SET OFF SOME CONVECTION
OVER SERN LA/SWRN MS WITH A FEW STRAGGLER SHOWERS AND STORMS SEEN ON
LOCAL 88DS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS SHOW A VERY
WARM DAY IN PROGRESS WITH HEAT INDICES GENERALLY IN THE TRIPLE
DIGITS...BUT SO FAR NOT QUITE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THE LIMITED CONVECTION OVER OR APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA WILL
LINGER THROUGH SUNSET...PARTICULARLY OF INTEREST ARE SOME STRONG
STORMS SEEN OVER SWRN MS MOVING SWWD TOWARD OUR NERN ZONES...
BEFORE DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND HAVE CARRIED A SMALL
POP FOR THE ERN ZONES FOR THE EVENING HOURS TO ACCOUNT. THEN FOR
TOMORROW THE MODELS AGREE ON CARRYING THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE
NRN GULF WHICH WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO BREAK OUT BY MID-MORNING AS HEATING COMMENCES. CANNOT RULE OUT
A STORM WELL INLAND BUT THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE HEAT ACROSS THE
NRN 1/2 OF THE AREA AND ESPECIALLY W-CNTL LA AND INTERIOR SERN TX.
AT THE PRESENT TIME HEAT INDEX VALUES...BASED ON FORECAST TEMPS
AND DEWPOINTS...WILL HIT AS HIGH AS 110F OVER PORTIONS OF THIS
REGION ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. COULD PROBABLY PULL THE TRIGGER ON A
HEAT ADVISORY ATTM FOR THE NRN EXTREMES OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT
WILL PROCEED WITH CAUTION AND LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAKE THE
FINAL CALL ON THIS MATTER.

THE RIDGE AXIS SEEN TO OUR NORTH IS PROGGED TO DRIFT SLOWLY SWD
OVER THE COMING DAYS...ESSENTIALLY SHUTTING OFF PRECIPITATION FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. DID CARRY MINIMAL POPS FOR TUESDAY AS THE AXIS
WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY TO OUR NORTH WHICH WILL KEEP THE CAP FROM
GROWING TOO STRONG BY THAT POINT. BUT FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY TIME FRAME THE RESULTANT CAP LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP
POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST. THE HEAT WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH MUCH OF THE NRN 1/2 OF THE AREA SEEING HIGHS IN THE LOW
TRIPLE DIGITS. HOPEFULLY ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL ENTRAINED FROM ABOVE
TO KEEP DEWPOINTS LOW ENOUGH TO NOT REQUIRE ADDITIONAL HEAT
ADVISORIES...WILL SEE AS WE GET CLOSER. FINALLY THE RIDGE BEGINS
TO BREAK DOWN AND RETROGRADE AS TROFFING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN
CONUS...ALLOWING BETTER MOISTURE AND SMALL RAIN CHANCES TO RETURN.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW WITH THE HIGH ON
OUR DOORSTEP...FOLLOWED BY MAINLY LIGHT SWRLY OR SRLY FLOW
THEREAFTER. NO FLAGS ANTICIPATED THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  78  95  77  96  80 /  10  40  20  20  10
KBPT  78  96  78  96  79 /  10  40  20  20  10
KAEX  77 100  77 101  78 /  10  30  20  20  10
KLFT  78  95  78  97  79 /  20  40  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

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