Hard Freeze Warning 6, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1158 PM CST MON JAN 31 2011

.DISCUSSION...
LATE SHIFT UPDATE TO HOIST A DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO THE COASTAL
WATERS WITH SEVERAL OBSERVATIONS OF ZERO VISIBILITY. NAM SHOWS
THIS SEA FOG ADVECTING INLAND INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA AFTER MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS...THE
FOG SHOULD LIFT INTO A STRATUS DECK AFTER MAKING A LITTLE INLAND
PROGRESS...SO WILL ONLY INCLUDE THE COASTAL COUNTIES/PARISHES IN
THE ADVISORY.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 PM CST MON JAN 31 2011/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. A VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL TROF ADVANCING INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH TEXAS WILL BRING DETERIORATING
WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS
EAST/NORTHEAST. CURRENT IFR CLOUDINESS AT BPT WILL OVERSPREAD ALL
TAF SITES AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. SOUTH TEXAS SURFACE LOW PROGGED
TO ADVANCE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ADVANCING INTO ARKANSAS BY NOON
TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH THUNDERSTORMS ADVANCING OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
NEED OF INCLUSION OF WIND SHEAR IN LATER TAF SETS AS LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 PM CST MON JAN 31 2011/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS NOTED STREAMING NORTH ACROSS EAST TEXAS/WESTERN LOUISIANA.
AN OVERALL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN ADVANCE OF VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS...BUT STILL GENERALLY
SCATTERED IN NATURE. TOMORROW...FORECAST MODELS SHOW A RELATIVELY
NARROW BAND OF FRONTALLY FORCED CONVECTION MOVING RAPIDLY THROUGH
THE REGION...ENTERING EAST TEXAS MID MORNING AND EXITING EAST OF
THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER BY MID AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO
LOOK RELATIVELY MEAGER WHILE PROGGED SHEAR PROFILES ARE
IMPRESSIVE. SPC HAS THE AREA OUTLINED FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES THE MOST LIKELY
SEVERE WEATHER MODES.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL RAPIDLY AFTER FROPA...AND WHILE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL PROFILES AND PARTIAL THICKNESSES OVER THE TEXAS LAKES
REGION WILL INCREASINGLY SUPPORT WINTRY PRECIP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...MOISTURE ALOFT IS ABSOLUTELY SCOURED OUT...NOT TO
MENTION THE STRONG POST FRONTAL SUBSIDENCE THAT DEVELOPS.

MARINE AND INLAND HAZARDS STILL LOOK ON TARGET...AND WERE THUS
RETAINED. WILL LET MID SHIFT DECIDE THE DISPOSITION OF
WATCHES...BUT I SUSPECT THAT A HARD FREEZE WARNING AND A GALE
WARNING...AT LEAST FOR PART OF THE GALE WATCH AREA...WILL BE
ISSUED.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 717 PM CST MON JAN 31 2011/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. A VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL TROF ADVANCING INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH TEXAS WILL BRING DETERIORATING
WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS
EAST/NORTHEAST. CURRENT IFR CLOUDINESS AT BPT WILL OVERSPREAD ALL
TAF SITES AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. SOUTH TEXAS SURFACE LOW PROGGED
TO ADVANCE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ADVANCING INTO ARKANSAS BY NOON
TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH THUNDERSTORMS ADVANCING OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
NEED OF INCLUSION OF WIND SHEAR IN LATER TAF SETS AS LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 PM CST MON JAN 31 2011/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDY AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY HAVE SERVED AS THE
PROVERBIAL CALM BEFORE THE STORM AS SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE ON THE
WAY OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE WIND PROFILES
CONTINUE TO ILLUSTRATE CONSIDERABLE DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR...
INSTABILITY IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AND SHOULD SERVE TO LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED
SQUALL LINE AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLINED THE
ENTIRE STATE IN A SLIGHT RISK TUESDAY.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS TUESDAY SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE FRONT ITSELF
MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS AROUND NOON TUESDAY AND EXITING
OUR CWA BY ABOUT 7 PM. STRONG WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED AS A RESULT.
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BUT INTENSITY WILL
PERSIST REQUIRING A LOW WATER ADVISORY.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES
DRAMATICALLY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO DIP
INTO THE MID 20'S NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR FREEZING ALONG THE COAST. A HARD FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
ACCORDINGLY. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WORKWEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEARLY 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30'S THROUGH FRIDAY
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 20'S.

AN INTERESTING SETUP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS AN
UPPER TROUGH DROPS OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND SHOOTS ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL US. WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES STILL IN PLACE ANY
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION MAY HAVE A CHANCE TO FALL AS THE FROZEN
VARIETY. IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION OF SOME KIND
WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE RAISED POPS FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE.

TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MODERATE FOR THE WEEKEND AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT.

MARINE...
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
OFFSHORE WATERS TO ACCOUNT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST AND WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY. LAKES AND BAYS
WILL BE CHOPPY AND OFFSHORE WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE RUNNING BETWEEN 6
AND 8 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  61  62  26  41 /  30 100  10  10
KBPT  60  62  26  39 /  40 100  10  10
KAEX  58  63  25  38 /  30 100  10  10
KLFT  59  65  26  42 /  30  80  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...HARD FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR ACADIA-ALLEN-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-CALCASIEU-
     CAMERON-EVANGELINE-IBERIA-JEFFERSON DAVIS-LAFAYETTE-LOWER
     ST. MARTIN-RAPIDES-ST. LANDRY-ST. MARY-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
     VERMILION-VERNON.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR ACADIA-ALLEN-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-CALCASIEU-CAMERON-
     EVANGELINE-IBERIA-JEFFERSON DAVIS-LAFAYETTE-LOWER ST.
     MARTIN-RAPIDES-ST. LANDRY-ST. MARY-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
     VERMILION-VERNON.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR CAMERON-VERMILION.

TX...HARD FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR HARDIN-JASPER-JEFFERSON-NEWTON-ORANGE-TYLER.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR HARDIN-JASPER-JEFFERSON-NEWTON-ORANGE-TYLER.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR JEFFERSON-ORANGE.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR CALCASIEU LAKE-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT
     20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT 20 NM-SABINE LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
     WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM
     20 NM TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO
     CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING FROM
     20 NM TO 60 NM.

     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT
     20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY, LA OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND,
     TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
     LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

     LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
     CALCASIEU LAKE-SABINE LAKE-VERMILION BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR CALCASIEU LAKE-SABINE LAKE-VERMILION BAY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
537 AM CST MON JAN 31 2011

GMZ430-432-435-LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-
011100-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-
BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-
ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-
ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-
ORANGE-
537 AM CST MON JAN 31 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AREAS OF DENSE FOG SHOULD LIFT AROUND MID-MORNING. SHOWERS WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. LOW WATER CONDITIONS ARE INDICATED
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE INLAND WATERWAYS DUE TO STRONG OFFSHORE
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

LOW WATER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT.

MODERATE RAIN WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. MUCH COLDER AIR WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE RAIN WITH
BLUSTERY NORTHERLY WINDS.

WILL NEED TO MONITOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE SUFFICIENTLY COLD THAT WINTRY PRECIP CANNOT
BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A
DEVELOPING FRONTAL WAVE OUT OVER THE GULF ARE THE MAIN CULPRITS.
HARD FREEZES ARE POSSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING RIGHT ON INTO THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475-011100-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-
537 AM CST MON JAN 31 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WINDS NOW LOOK TO BE A BIT TOO STRONG FOR DENSE FOG OUT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. CAUTION MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR WINDS GUSTING
TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATE TNITE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON TUESDAY. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT. A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.
STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SWEENEY