Hard Freeze Warning 10, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1137 AM CST THU FEB 10 2011

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. STRATOCU HOLDING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM 12-19 HUNDRED FT PER LATEST SURFACE
OBS. CLOUDS LOCKED IN AT INVERSION LEVEL. MOS SUGGESTING CLEARING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...HAVE OPTED TO CARRY MVFR CLOUDS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH LATEST RUC13 T/TD SPREAD AT 2
DEGREES OR LESS AT THE INVERSION. GFS AND NAM MUCH DRIER. SHOULD
THE LATTER MODELS PAN OUT...AMENDMENTS WILL BE ISSUED.

&&

MARCOTTE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 AM CST THU FEB 10 2011/

UPDATE...
CLOUDY SKIES AND NORTH WINDS HELPING TO MAKE FOR A QUITE COLD
MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES HANGING AROUND
30F AND WIND CHILLS AROUND 20F. WE HAVE HAD A COUPLE REPORTS OF
SNOW FLURRIES BETWEEN ORANGE AND LAKE CHARLES. LOOKING AT UPPER
AIR PLOT...SEEMS TO BE A BIT OF A SPEED MAX MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION ABOVE 7H...WHICH IS HELPING TO PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO
TO INDUCE SOME SPRINKLES (SNOW GRAINS) OUT OF THE 300 FOOT MOISTURE
DECK. MOISTURE IS JUST BARELY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY KIND OF PRECIP
AND THIS WILL BE RELATIVELY INSIGNIFICANT AND MORE OF A
NOVELTY...SO WILL NOT ADD TO ZONES OR WEATHER GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

TIME HEIGHTS SHOW A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER WITH RH VALUES GREATER
THAN 75 PERCENT HANGING AROUND THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...SO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL ALSO HANG AROUND KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM
WARMING MUCH TODAY...AND WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 40S.
CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TONIGHTS LOW TEMPERATURES
AND WILL ADDRESS THAT WITH THAT THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS STILL BE
REPORTED WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM CST THU FEB 10 2011/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBS INDICATE THE PERSISTENT STRATUS
DECK OVER THE REGION REMAINS WITH A HEIGHT OF 1000-1500 FEET.
FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS AND BUFKIT DATA INDICATE THIS CLOUD
DECK WILL ERODE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR ALOFT
MIXES DOWN. UPSTREAM OBS SHOW CEILINGS ABOVE 2000 FEET SO EXPECT
THOSE TO WORK INTO THE AREA BEFORE THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE
ALTOGETHER. OTHER THAN THE CLOUDS THE ONLY REAL AVIATION ISSUE
TODAY IS THE WIND WHICH IS STILL BLOWING AT A GOOD CLIP OUT OF THE
NORTH AT THIS EARLY HOUR. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE SRN PLAINS...
CONTINUES BUILDING SEWD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CST THU FEB 10 2011/

DISCUSSION...

LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING INDICATE TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S IN NORTHERN ZONES TO THE MID 30S IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. DESPITE THE STRONG CAA AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
TEENS JUST TO OUR NORTH...THE GUSTY WINDS AND OVERCAST SKIES HAVE
APPARENTLY COMBINED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. THUS HAVE DROPPED THE HARD FREEZE WARNING FOR THIS
MORNING AND REPLACED WITH A REGULAR FREEZE WARNING FOR ALL ZONES.
STILL MAY SEE A FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN ZONES BRIEFLY REACH HARD
FREEZE CRITERIA BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT QUITE GET THERE.

LOW CLOUD DECK THAT EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM OUR FORECAST AREAS INTO
THE ARKLATEX CONTINUES TO ERODE SOUTHWARD. NAM AND GFS PROG THIS
CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE ERODING THROUGH THE DAY AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS SOUTHWARD...WITH NAM MUCH FASTER IN DISSIPATING CLOUD
COVER THAN GFS. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 40S TODAY
WITH CONTINUED CAA AND CLOUD COVER. SURFACE HIGH TO SETTLE OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO CALM NORTH WINDS EXPECTED.
ASSUMING CLOUD COVER ERODES AS PROGGED...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ALONG WITH LOW DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW FOR GREAT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND SHOW LOWS
AROUND 20 IN NORTHERN ZONES WITH MID 20S JUST INLAND FROM THE
COAST. A HARD FREEZE WARNING WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE WARRANTED
FOR ALL ZONES. HOWEVER...SHOULD CLOUD COVER LINGER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT MAY BE WARMER THAN
CURRENTLY INDICATED.

REST OF FORECAST IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED WITH NO SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. GLOBAL
MODELS FINALLY BEGINNING TO SHOW A MORE TYPICAL LA NINA PATTER
DEVELOPING WITH A STRONG H5 RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE GULF COAST
WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.
THIS PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS ON
TAP FOR NEXT WEEK AND GUIDANCE FOLLOWS SUIT WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND LITTLE TO NO POPS.

MARINE...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TODAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WILL LET THE SCA AND LOW
WATER ADVISORY CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z BEFORE EXPIRING AS PREVIOUSLY
SCHEDULED. LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  42  23  51  26  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  43  24  51  25  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  40  21  50  24  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  42  25  50  27  60 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
     CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO
     CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING
     FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX
     EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
     LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE...VERMILION
     BAY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
453 AM CST THU FEB 10 2011

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-
TXZ180>182-201-215-216-111100-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-
ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-
LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-
LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
453 AM CST THU FEB 10 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LIGHT FREEZE WILL OCCUR THROUGH 9 AM THIS MORNING IN ALL AREAS
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S FOR ALL AREAS...WITH 10 TO 14
HOURS OF TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ANOTHER HARD FREEZE IS LIKELY SATURDAY MORNING FOR MOST AREAS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. A LIGHT FREEZE IS LIKELY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
LAKES REGION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

05