Wind Chill Advisory 4, NWS North Platte, NE

450 
WWUS43 KLBF 231232
WSWLBF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
632 AM CST SUN JAN 23 2011

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY CANCELLED...


NEZ005>010-027>029-231345-
/O.CAN.KLBF.WC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-110123T1800Z/
EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-LOUP-GARFIELD-
WHEELER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VALENTINE...SPRINGVIEW...SPENCER...
AINSWORTH...BASSETT...ONEILL...TAYLOR...BURWELL...BARTLETT
632 AM CST SUN JAN 23 2011

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS CANCELLED THE
WIND CHILL ADVISORY. 


$$
POWER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
756 PM CST SAT JAN 22 2011

.UPDATE...
NAM...RUC AND HRRR BUILD THE ARCTIC HIGH ACROSS ND INTO NORTHEAST
NEB BY MORNING. HRRR SUGGESTED LOWS OF -5 TO -15 ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ZONES. COMBINED WINDS NEAR 10 MPH AND SUBZERO TEMPS
WOULD PRODUCE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONDITION THROUGH 10AM ACROSS
A FEW NORTHEAST COUNTIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS HAVE BEEN DROPPED TO
SUBZERO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY
BE CANCELLED OR ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AND REPLACED WITH A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY LATER TONIGHT. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE SNOW CHCS AND
AMOUNTS. LIGHT SNOW...GUSTY WINDS TO 25 MPH AND SUBZERO WIND CHILL
READINGS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. ELSEWHERE SNOW SHOWERS
AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IS THE
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CST SAT JAN 22 2011/

SYNOPSIS...

ARCTIC FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING SWD THIS AFTERNOON AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS
FROM NORTHEAST OF ALLIANCE...TO JUST NORTH OF BROKEN BOW. AFTER
FREEZING PRECIPITATION AND LIGHT SNOW THIS AM...TEMPERATURES HAVE
SURGED INTO THE 30S AND 40S SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE. NORTH OF THE
FRONT...TEMPS WERE IN THE 20S WITH LIGHT SNOW REPORTED AT VALENTINE
AND ONEILL. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING...INDICATED A BROAD
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM FROM THE HUDSON BAY SWD INTO
THE FL PANHANDLE. A RIDGE WAS PRESENT OVER THE ERN PACIFIC WITH NWLY
FLOW EXTENDING EWD INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. A DISTURBANCE
WAS LOCATED OVER SWRN SASKATCHEWAN WITH DECENT HT FALLS NOTED OVER MT
AND WYOMING THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...

NEAR TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE
NEAR TERM DEALS WITH THE ONGOING SYSTEM...THEN TEMPERATURES AND WEAK
DISTURBANCE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. FOR TONIGHT...H7 LOW
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NERN CWA THIS EVENING...NO SURPRISE...THE
HEAVIEST SNOW CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED OVER HOLT AND BOYD COUNTIES.
THE NAM AND GFS SOLNS WERE CONSISTENT...FURTHER EAST AND FASTER THIS
MORNING WITH THIS SYSTEMS PROGRESSION. THE OFF HOUR RUNS JUST
RECENTLY HAVE SLOWED THIS SOME...PUSHED IT FURTHER WEST AND
INCREASED THE QPF AMOUNTS FOR TONIGHT. EVEN WITH A
COMPROMISE...ONGOING HEADLINES AND SNOW ACCUMS IN THE ADVISORY OF 3
TO 5 INCHES REMAINS ON TRACK. ONLY MAJOR CHANGES WERE TO ELIMINATE
THE CUSTER COUNTY FROM THE ADVISORY...AS DRIER AIR AND WARMER TEMPS
HAVE PUSHED INTO THAT PORTION OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON...LIMITING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...AS WELL AS SNOWFALL.
WITH THE BEFORE MENTIONED LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT...ANCHORED
FROM KVTN TO BURWELL...AND DECENT WAA AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
RESIDING OVER THIS LEADING EDGE...FAVORABLE CONDS FOR SNOW
PRODUCTION WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF SOME
ACCUMS APPROACH 6 INCHES IN FAR EASTERN HOLT COUNTY AND WILL ADVISE
THE ONCOMING SHIFT OF THIS POTENTIAL.

FURTHER WEST...NWRLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON HAS LED TO SNOWFALL OVER
THE BLACK HILLS. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...AND AM
EXPECTING SOME UPSLOPE SNOW TO DEVELOP IN NRN SHERIDAN COUNTY...SO
POPS WERE INCREASED ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20 FROM HAY SPRINGS TO
MERRIMAN.

ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH BEHIND THE EXITING DISTURBANCE. ARCTIC AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED
THOUGH AS A SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN SWRLY FLOW AND THE ARCTIC AIR BEING FORCED
EAST. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTH.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MED RANGE PATTERN WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN A WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN
TROF SETUP...WITH THE CENTRAL CONUS THE AREA UNDER THE GUN AS ENERGY
DROPS OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. OPERATIONAL
MODELS IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...THO AS EXPECTED THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN
TIMING OF THE WAVES. THIS MOST APPARENT WTIH THE MID-WEEK WAVE IN
THE TUE NITE/WED TIME FRAME WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT COULD SPREAD SOME
LIGHT PCPN DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH EURO SEEMS TO HAVE SOME
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUPPORT KEEPING THE WAVE FARTHER TO WEST WITH
RIDGE SUPPRESSED BY DEEPER SYSTEM DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
BEHIND THE EAST COAST SYSTEM. HAVE EXPANDED THE SMALL POPS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH NOT MUCH
EXPECTED FROM THIS ATTM. OTHERWISE WARMUP LOOKS ON TRACK BY LATE IN
THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS PUSHED FARTHER INTO PLAINS BY
STRONGER SYSTEM DROPPING OUT OF THE ALUETIANS INTO CENTRAL CANADA.
THIS SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO ARCTIC AIR BASED UP NEAR THE YUKON AND
FORCE IT DOWN THE PLAINS IN THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO EVENING TIME
FRAME FOR A COOL DOWN FOR THE WEEKEND.

AVIATION...
SFC LOW SPINNING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ATTM PULLING
MOISTURE AND COLD AIR BACK INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA AS KVTN TERMAINAL
CONDITIONS ARE AT MVFR WITH CIGS RIGHT AT THE 1KFT AGL LEVEL. EXPECT
SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT OVER THIS AREA AND CIGS SHOULD
DROP ALONG WITH THE VSBYS LEAVING A GOOD POSSIBILITY OF IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. STRONGER
NORTHWEST FLOW MOVING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST LEAVING DRY
CONDITIONS IN BETTER MIXED ATMOSPHERE AND VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KLBF
TERMINAL. MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AS
THE UPPER SYSTEM ROTATES THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA AND EXPECT A
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE FOLLEWED BY A DECREASE IN CIG HEIGHT.
MORE CONFIDENCE IN THIS THEN PCPN HITTING THE GROUND SO HAVE MVFR
CONDITIONS MOVING THROUGH THE KLBF TERMINAL NEAR MIDNIGHT AND MOST
LIKELY TO STICK AROUND THROUGH SUNRISE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR NEZ006-007-009-
010-027>029.

&&

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...CDC/BT/SJ
AVIATION...CDC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
235 AM CST SUN JAN 23 2011

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-240845-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
235 AM CST SUN JAN 23 2011 /135 AM MST SUN JAN 23 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

VERY COLD WIND CHILLS OF TWENTY DEGREES BELOW ZERO...CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

VERY COLD WIND CHILLS AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO...CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH NOON SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE

TAYLOR