Severe Thunderstorm Warning 330, NWS North Platte, NE

325 
WWUS53 KLBF 070212
SVSLBF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
912 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2011

NEC031-091-171-070230-
/O.CON.KLBF.SV.W.0330.000000T0000Z-111007T0230Z/
HOOKER NE-THOMAS NE-CHERRY NE-
912 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL
CHERRY...NORTHWESTERN THOMAS AND NORTHEASTERN HOOKER COUNTIES UNTIL
930 PM CDT/830 PM MDT/...

AT 910 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF BROWNLEE...OR 22
MILES NORTHEAST OF MULLEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. PENNY SIZE
HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE DAMAGING WINDS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  VALENTINE NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE AROUND 930 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 4264 10084 4250 10033 4194 10082 4203 10108
TIME...MOT...LOC 0212Z 204DEG 48KT 4231 10076
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 0.75IN

$$

TAYLOR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
644 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2011

.UPDATE...
ALL THUNDERSTORMS WHICH FORM ALONG OR AHEAD OF A DRYLINE PUSHING
EAST THROUGH WRN AND NCNTL NEBRASKA TONIGHT WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50KT.

A LINE OF STORMS WILL FORM NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS NCNTL NEB WHICH
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST. THIS LINE OF STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE
FORECAST AREA BY 10Z WITH VFR THEREAFTER THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THE HRRR SUGGESTS A SECOND LINE OF SHOWERS FORMING AROUND 05Z
ACROSS WRN NEB. THIS LINE OF SHOWERS COULD ALSO PUSH EAST
OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING BUT VFR IS EXPECTED WITH THIS AREA OF RAIN.

WINDS THROUGH 03Z...16035G50KT. 03Z-12Z...DECREASING TO 22015KT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE DRYLINE. WINDS INCREASE ACROSS NRN NEB
FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO 22030G40KT.

&&

.AVIATION...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2011/

SYNOPSIS...
H5 ANALYSIS THIS MORNING INDICATING A VIGOROUS CLOSED LOW OVER SERN
OR WITH ANOTHER STRONG WAVE LOCATED OVER SRN NEVADA. A 90 KT JET
STREAK EXTENDED FROM SRN CA INTO CENTRAL AZ. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON OVER SERN WYOMING WITH
VERY STRONG WINDS OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AS OF 3
PM CDT...A PEAK GUST OF 53 MPH WAS RECORDED AT NORTH PLATTE WITH A
PEAK GUST OF 56 MPH AT IMPERIAL. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S AND SKIES WERE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

FOR TONIGHT...H5 LOW WILL LIFT FROM WYOMING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PANHANDLE INTO
WRN SD. EAST OF THIS FEATURE...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ANCHORED ON A
DRYLINE...WILL TRAVERSE THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING.
ATTM...IT APPEARS THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST IN PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW AND TRACK.
THESE AREAS...ROUGHLY OVER SHERIDAN...GRANT...WESTERN CHERRY AND
GARDEN COUNTIES WILL SEE THE BEST DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF DISCRETE STORMS. THOUGH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO IN
THESE AREAS GIVEN THE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL HELICITY PARAMETERS THIS
EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONGEAL
ALONG A DRYLINE TOWARD SUNDOWN. TORNADO THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED
FURTHER EAST...AS STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS UNIDIRECTIONAL IN
NATURE. STORMS WILL BE FAST MOVING GIVEN THE 50 TO 70 KT H5
WINDS...SO DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE LINE WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AS THE LINE MOVES INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...LESS FAVORABLE DYNAMICS WILL DIMINISH THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHEASTERN CWA.

FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...INTENSE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING
DRYLINE AND CONVECTION WILL COMMENCE FRIDAY MORNING. VERY DRY BL
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE FIRE
CONCERNS. BASED ON DEW POINTS IN THE 20S AND FCST HIGHS IN THE
70S...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT
RANGE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS AND EXPECTED WINDS OF 15
TO 25 MPH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WOULD NORMALLY ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...WET FUELS MAY BE AN ISSUE WITH RAIN
THAT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WOULD LIKE THE EVENING CREW TO EVAL
RAIN COVERAGE AND MAKE THE CALL LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO AVOID
CONFUSION WITH ANY CONVECTIVE WATCHES THAT MAY BE ISSUED THIS
EVENING...AS WELL AS OVERLAP WITH THE HIGH WIND WARNING WHICH
EXPIRES THIS EVENING AT 03Z. DRY CONDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS CONVECTION REMAINS
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA INVOF OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANCHORED FROM NRN
KS INTO ERN NEBR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH NORTHEAST
INTO WESTERN COLORADO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. EAST OF THIS
FEATURE...ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG THE
BEFORE MENTIONED FRONT...SPREADING NORTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
STRONG UPGLIDE AND LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SATURDAY IN THE SOUTH AND
EAST...THEN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA FOR SATURDAY EVENING AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. LIFT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE
INTO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUING
INTO EARLY MONDAY. DECIDED ON THE SLOWER NAM SOLN WHICH HAS BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH LAST NIGHTS ECMWF SOLN.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY TROUGH MIDWEEK. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND AND POINTS EAST...SO
A DRY FCST WILL CONTINUE.

FIRE WEATHER...

A DRY LINE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA EARLY FRIDAY...USHERING SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR BACK ACROSS
THE REGION.  STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD INDICATE MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES OF LESS THAN 20 PERCENT FROM THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
NORTHEAST THROUGH CHERRY COUNTY.  WHILE RED FLAG RELATIVE HUMIDITY
CRITERIA MAY BE MET TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS FIRE ZONES
204...206...210 AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF ZONE 208...WIND CRITERIA
WILL BE LESS CERTAIN.  BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH...MAXIMUM WIND
SPEED OF 20 MPH OR LESS IS LIKELY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF ZONE 204...WHERE WIND GUSTS MAY EXCEED 25 MPH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.  DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL FORGO A RFW AT THIS POINT
IN TIME...ESPECIALLY SINCE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WHERE MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THESE AREAS.

AVIATION...

TWO CONCERNS GOING FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE...THE FIRST IS THE
ONGOING GUSTY WIND.  STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...WITH GUST POTENTIAL OF GREATER THAN 40KTS AT BOTH THE
KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS.  THE SECOND CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  A
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF
COLORADO AND WYOMING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  WITH MOISTURE INCREASING
AHEAD OF THIS LOW...STORMS WILL DEVELOP FIRST ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...THEN DRIFT INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA.  ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA AFTER 21Z AS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR...THEN FURTHER STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST ALONG A EASTWARD
PROGRESSING DRYLINE.  THE STORMS SHOULD CONGEAL INTO A LINE THAT
WILL QUICKLY PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION.  USING NEAR TERM MODEL
SOLUTIONS...STORMS WOULD IMPACT THE VTN AND/OR LBF TERMINAL SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z TONIGHT WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY
THREAT.  WITH THE QUICK MOVING NATURE OF THIS LINE OF STORMS...WOULD
EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR BEFORE OR SHORTLY AFTER 09Z TONIGHT AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ004>006-008-009-022>027-035>038-056>059-069>071-094.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ007-010-028-
029.

&&

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...CLB
AVIATION...CDC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
349 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2011

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-072100-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
349 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2011 /249 PM MDT THU OCT 6 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THOUGH THE
EVENING.  IN RESPONSE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 60 MPH EXPECTED THROUGH 10 PM CDT. A HIGH WIND WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF WESTERN NEBRASKA. ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED WHERE WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST OF A
LINE FROM AINSWORTH TO BROKEN BOW LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT.
INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL QUICKLY PUSH NORTH NORTHEAST AND BE ABLE
TO PRODUCE DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS WITH LARGE HAIL. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...GENERALLY WEST AND NORTH OF A MERRIMAN TO
ELLSWORTH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND EAST
OF AN O'NEILL TO MASON CITY LINE. STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THE STORMS FRIDAY.

EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF A
AINSWORTH TO STOCKVILLE LINE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS
EXCEEDING 20 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH DRY ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS AND
CURED FUELS TO PROMOTE EXTREME FIRE GROWTH. A RED FLAG WARNING
MAYBE NEEDED FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THOSE PLANNING HARVESTING
OPERATIONS NEED TO CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM EJECTS OUT OF THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
HEAVY RAINFALL SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM VALENTINE TO
OGALLALA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE

JACOBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
730 PM CDT THU OCT 06 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0621 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 4 WSW BIG SPRINGS       41.04N 102.15W
10/06/2011  M59 MPH          DEUEL              NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

JAHSENMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
752 PM CDT THU OCT 06 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     HIGH SUST WINDS  AINSWORTH               42.55N 99.86W
10/06/2011  M40 MPH          BROWN              NE   AWOS

            REPORT FROM AINSWORTH AIRPORT AWOS SITE OF SUSTAINED
            WINDS.

&&

CARMEL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
806 PM CDT THU OCT 06 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0708 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST VALENTINE               42.87N 100.55W
10/06/2011  M58 MPH          CHERRY             NE   ASOS

&&

JAHSENMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
808 PM CDT THU OCT 06 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     HIGH SUST WINDS  THEDFORD                41.98N 100.57W
10/06/2011  M44 MPH          THOMAS             NE   AWOS

&&

JAHSENMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
814 PM CDT THU OCT 06 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0811 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 3 E NORTH PLATTE        41.13N 100.71W
10/06/2011                   LINCOLN            NE   NWS EMPLOYEE

            POWER OUTAGE AT LEE BIRD AIRPORT.

&&

JAHSENMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
823 PM CDT THU OCT 06 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0807 PM     TSTM WND GST     11 NW TRYON             41.67N 101.10W
10/06/2011  E70 MPH          MCPHERSON          NE   PUBLIC

            ACCOMPANIED WITH PEA SIZE HAIL AND DRIVING RAIN.

&&

JAHSENMA