Severe Thunderstorm Warning 217, NWS North Platte, NE

503 
WWUS53 KLBF 110255
SVSLBF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
955 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011

NEC029-085-111-135-110315-
/O.CON.KLBF.SV.W.0217.000000T0000Z-110711T0315Z/
CHASE NE-HAYES NE-LINCOLN NE-PERKINS NE-
955 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
PERKINS...SOUTHWESTERN LINCOLN...HAYES AND EASTERN CHASE COUNTIES
UNTIL 1015 PM CDT/915 PM MDT/...

AT 951 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES SOUTH OF GRAINTON TO
HAYES CENTER STATE WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  GRAINTON AROUND 910 PM MDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE HIGHWAY 25
MILE MARKER 60.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IF YOU ARE IN
THE PATH OF THESE STORMS. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN NORTH PLATTE.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4035 10145 4085 10139 4076 10078 4034 10079
TIME...MOT...LOC 0255Z 199DEG 25KT 4069 10125 4060 10083
WIND...HAIL 70MPH 1.00IN

$$

TAYLOR

868 
WWUS53 KLBF 110317
SVSLBF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1017 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011

NEC029-085-111-135-110327-
/O.EXP.KLBF.SV.W.0217.000000T0000Z-110711T0315Z/
CHASE NE-HAYES NE-LINCOLN NE-PERKINS NE-
1017 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN PERKINS...
SOUTHWESTERN LINCOLN...HAYES AND EASTERN CHASE COUNTIES HAS
EXPIRED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR
PROPERTY.  HOWEVER SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL
POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

IN ADDITION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP...AND A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT OR 200 AM 
MDT.   

LAT...LON 4035 10145 4085 10139 4076 10078 4034 10079
TIME...MOT...LOC 0255Z 199DEG 25KT 4069 10125 4060 10083

$$

TAYLOR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
300 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011

.DISCUSSION...HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES.  THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN SHOWS A RIDGE OF WARM ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS THIS AXIS SHOULD MOVE EAST AND ALLOW SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND ALLOW ANY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DO OCCUR TO BECOME EFFICIENT
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. THESE BOTH WILL HELP TO BRING A BREAK TO THE
WARM TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  BY THE END OF THE WEEK
HOWEVER THE AXIS OF WARM AIR WILL MOVE BACK OVER THE STATE AND BRING
PERHAPS SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SUMMER.

.TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE
FOCUSED ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.

EXPECTING CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON AND PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO WORK
WITH AND WITH THE PASSING OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT...BELIEVE
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH AS
THEY MOVE THROUGH. BESIDES THE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...MAY GET SOME FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ON THE NORTH
BUT WITH LESSER CONFIDENCE ON THIS HAVE TRENDED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SOUTHWARD FOR TONIGHT. IN TERMS OF SEVERE CHANCES...MU CAPES
AT 03Z ARE INDICATED TO BE 2K TO 4K J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT
AROUND 30 TO 35KTS THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 45KTS
THIS EVENING ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RUC. IN DAYS PAST...35 TO 40KT
SHEAR HAS NOT BEEN ENOUGH TO GET ENOUGH TILT IN STORMS TO SUPPORT
HAIL THREATS SO AS SHEAR LOOKS TO BE STRONGER HAVE A BIT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE THAT LARGE HAIL WOULD BE A POSSIBILITY IF STORMS DO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. MAY ALSO HAVE A WIND THREAT AS STORMS ORGANIZE INTO
A LINE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE AREA FROM EASTERN
COLORADO INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA ON MONDAY. THE WARM FRONT
TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE DAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. AGAIN...LOOKS
LIKE MORE OF AN AFTERNOON THREAT DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING/INCREASED
INSTABILITY...AND TIMING OF SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER MAY GET CLOUDS MOVING
IN AHEAD OF THE WAVE SO WHERE THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SET UP
MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES...AND HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A
FEW DEGREES. THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO STAY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS
EVEN A SLIGHT SHIFT NORTHWARD COULD CAUSE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN
TEMPERATURES AS LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT THE PAST FEW
DAYS HAVE SEEN HIGHS AROUND AND EXCEEDING 100F. SO IF THE WARM FRONT
DOES PUSH FURTHER NORTH HIGHS WILL BE TOO COOL. SEVERE STORMS ARE
AGAIN A POSSIBILITY...BUT RATHER THAN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...THE
THREAT WILL SHIFT INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. WITH MOIST EASTERLY FLOW
NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL SEE MU CAPES OF 2K TO 4K J/KG AND MODELS ARE
INDICATING SHEAR OF OF 40 TO 45KTS INTO EARLY EVENING MAINLY IN
LOCATIONS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.
ALTHOUGH MAIN THREATS WILL BE HAIL AND WINDS...HODOGRAPHS INDICATING
A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO A THREAT FOR
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CLOUDS AND STORMS WILL DOMINATE BOTH DAYS
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ONGOING PRECIPITATION. A SURFACE LOW
WILL HELP TO FOCUS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF A
SURFACE WARM FRONT ACROSS KANSAS. DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER SO
MUCH AS HEAVY RAIN HOWEVER. PRECIPITABLE WATER 0Z TUESDAY WILL RANGE
FROM 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES ACCORDING TO THE GFS AND CONTINUE IN THAT
RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH 0Z THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE CONTINUOUS...RATHER THERE WILL BE A BREAK
BETWEEN THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES WITH THE LONGEST PAUSE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS CONCLUSION IS SHOWN IN EACH MODEL
HOWEVER EUROPEAN AND GEM SHOW THE PRECIPITATION TO BE SHIFTED ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

BY THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL RETURN WEST AND
AMPLIFY UP THROUGH THE STATE. HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND PERHAPS UPPER 90S. THIS STRONG WARMING
WILL ALSO LIMIT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS WE BEGIN TO SEE WARM AIR
ALOFT AND A CAP OF WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.

LOOKING TO FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WE WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS BE CAPPED BUT FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE A FEW
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. A SURFACE LOW WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA WITH A DRYLINE ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND A POSSIBLE
SOURCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE AVIATION COMMUNITY THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON LIE WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS VARIABLE LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE OR NO CEILING OR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. DID PUT 5SM IN FOG AT KLBF AROUND THE 11Z TIME
THINKING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH AFTER OVERNIGHT
RAINFALL AND LIGHT WINDS TO KEEP THE AIR FROM BEING STIRRED MUCH.
NOT TERRIBLY CONFIDENT ON THIS THOUGH. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
HIGHEST AT THE KLBF TERMINAL THIS EVENING AS IT IS EXPECTED FOR
ACTIVITY FROM COLORADO TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THEN ON MONDAY
A WARM FRONT ACROSS KANSAS WILL LIFT NORTH AND WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS
POINT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR
STORMS ON MONDAY WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...AFFECTING THE
KVTN TERMINAL BUT SHOULD BE AFTER 18Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
VERY MOIST AND ANOMALOUS AIR CONTINUES TO SIT ACROSS THE AREA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE WAS 1.32 INCHES AT LBF AT 12Z THIS
MORNING...WHICH IS 139 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THESE VALUES ARE LIKELY TO
INCREASE AS MOISTURE POOLS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT
LIFTING INTO NEBRASKA ON MONDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE GFS IS
SIGNALING UPWARDS OF 2.00 INCHES WHICH WELL EXCEEDS THE 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND COULD BE AN INDICATOR OF RECORD
RAINFALLS. IN ADDITION...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA APPROACH 4000 M...THEN ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY REACH
THOSE DEPTHS AGAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA INDICATING STORMS CAN BE
VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. THESE FACTORS...ALONG WITH STORM
MOTIONS THAT AREA/T TOO RAPID INDICATE HEAVY RAINS WITH FLASH
FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOMETHING
TO CONSIDER IS THAT THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE NOT
SEEN A GREAT DEAL OF RAIN IN THE LAST WEEK SO CAN TAKE MORE RAINFALL
AND AS THE THREAT SHIFTS INTO THESE AREAS ON MONDAY AND WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY STILL ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL DON/T SEE A
NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN ANY LOCATION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
AVIATION/SHORT TERM...BROOKS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
349 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-112100-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
349 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011 /249 PM MDT SUN JUL 10 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT. STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LISCO TO MULLEN
TO VALENTINE. QUARTER SIZE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS AGAIN A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
MONDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE MOST PROBABLE AREA FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...GENERAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND THEN AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY REPORTS OF HEAVY RAINS WOULD BE
APPRECIATED.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE

BROOKS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
845 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0828 PM     HAIL             8 NE ARNOLD             41.51N 100.08W
07/10/2011  E1.50 INCH       CUSTER             NE   PUBLIC

&&

JAHSENMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
901 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 PM     HAIL             9 NNE CALLAWAY          41.41N 99.85W
07/10/2011  E1.50 INCH       CUSTER             NE   PUBLIC

&&

JAHSENMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
911 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0857 PM     TSTM WND GST     14 SE STOCKVILLE        40.39N 100.20W
07/10/2011  E60 MPH          FRONTIER           NE   PUBLIC

&&

BTAYLOR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
921 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0916 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 SW HAYES CENTER       40.44N 101.11W
07/10/2011  E70 MPH          HAYES              NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JAHSENMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
922 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0905 PM     HAIL             6 W BROKEN BOW          41.41N 99.75W
07/10/2011  E2.50 INCH       CUSTER             NE   PUBLIC

            SAID THERE WAS TREE DAMAGE WITH SPIKED HAILSTONES THE
            SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS.

&&

JAHSENMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
928 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0916 PM     HAIL             BROKEN BOW              41.41N 99.64W
07/10/2011  E1.25 INCH       CUSTER             NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

JAHSENMA