Heat Advisory 6, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
307 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2011

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT HAS DRIFTED INTO CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING
WITH 5960 HTS NOTED AT KLBF AND KOMA...ALONG WITH 5970 HTS AT KDDC
AND KTOP. PATCHY FOG ALONG THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR HAD BURNED OFF BY
11 AM CDT...AND AS OF 2 PM CDT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WERE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND LOW 100S OFF TO
THE SOUTH IN KANSAS. SRLY AND SERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED THIS
AFTERNOON...THANKS TO LEE SIDE TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING AND
THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO.

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 70S...WITH A FEW UPPER 60S WEST OF HIGHWAY 61. WILL KEEP IN
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDOWN FOR LOCATIONS IN THE
SOUTHWEST AS CONVECTION OVER NWRN KS FAR SWRN NEBRASKA CONTINUES TO
DRIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA. FOR MONDAY...THE MAIN FORECASTING
CHALLENGE WAS WHERE AND HOW FAR WEST TO PLACE A HEAT ADVISORY WITH
APPARENT T'S REACHING 100 TO 110 DEGREES. RIGHT NOW...THAT FAVORS A
LINE EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 FROM OGALLALA TO
NORTH PLATTE. LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THIS LINE...FCST DEW
POINTS IN THE 50S AND LWR 60S WILL HOLD DOWN HEAT INDEXES UNDER 100
DEGREES.

LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE IN THE NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CWA AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A WELL MIXED LAYER
SHOULD FACILITATE SOME HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD.
ACTIVITY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL TRACK EAST OVERNIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE AS LOW LEVEL SRLY FLOW IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WEAKENS OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND...OPTED
FOR HIGHER POPS IN THE WEST INITIALLY...THEN ISOLATED POPS FURTHER
EAST OVERNIGHT.

BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION. RIDGING ALOFT WILL BECOME SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS...WITH FLAT ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK FROM NERN COLORADO INTO
SRN NEBRASKA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
INITIATE ACROSS NERN COLORADO INVOF A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE OVER NRN KS/SRN NEBRASKA
MIDWEEK...WHICH WILL FAVOR SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR THE HIGHEST
POPS. DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS IN THE NORTH AND WEST DUE TO
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL SOLNS TDY. IN ADDITION TO
INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THANKS TO NERLY WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EVEN
WITH COOLER TEMPS...MUGGY CONDS WILL CONTINUE AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS PUSHED WEST THANKS TO NERLY SURFACE WINDS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

A TRICKY FCST CONTINUES IN THE LONG TERM AS PRECIPITATION TIMING
CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMATIC. NUMEROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD POSING A PRECIPITATION
THREAT EVERY 24 TO 36 HOURS. SINCE TIMING AND TRACK OF DISTURBANCES
REMAINS DIFFICULT...DECIDED TO LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCES ONLY.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S...WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR AUGUST 3-5.

&&

AVIATION...

GENERAL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH THE LBF AND VTN
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE
OUT A STRAY TSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AND/OR TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS AND OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.  WITH A LACK OF A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...STORMS WOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST...SO
WILL NOT INCLUDE THE MENTION IN THE TAFS.  BUT IF A STORM WERE TO
FORM...SEVERE WINDS GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH POSSIBLY
A LARGE HAIL REPORT OR TWO.  OTHERWISE...GUIDANCE HINTS TO THE
POTENTIAL OF VISIBILITIES LOWERING TO MVFR BY DAYBREAK AT LBF.  WITH
A MOIST BL IN PLACE AND FAVORABLE SOUTHEAST SURFACE WIND...CANT
ARGUE WITH THE ASSESSMENT.  BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW...ESPECIALLY SINCE
VERY FEW OF THE SREF MEMBERS SUGGEST THE LOWER VSBYS AND MIXING
SHOULD BE MUCH GREATER TONIGHT.  GIVEN THE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER LAST
FEW DAYS...FELT THAT A MENTION IN THIS DISCUSSION WAS
WORTHWHILE...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY RESTRICTIONS IN THE OFFICIAL
TAF FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...HEAT ADVISORY FOR ZONES
NEZ004>010-094 THROUGH 8 PM CDT (7 PM MDT) THIS EVENING.

HEAT ADVISORY FOR ZONES NEZ005>010-025>029-036>038-057>059-069>071.
FROM NOON CDT (11 AM MDT) MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 8 PM CDT (7 PM MDT)
MONDAY EVENING.

AVIATION...JACOBS
SYNOPSIS...SHORT AND LONG TERM...BUTTLER

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