Flash Flood Watch 4, NWS North Platte, NE

Arthur County, NE, Blaine County, NE, Boyd County, NE, Brown County, NE, Chase County, NE, Cherry County, NE, Deuel County, NE, Frontier County, NE, Garden County, NE, Grant County, NE, Hayes County, NE, Holt County, NE, Hooker County, NE, Keith County, NE, Keya Paha County, NE, Lincoln County, NE, Logan County, NE, McPherson County, NE, Perkins County, NE, Rock County, NE, Sheridan County, NE, Thomas County, NE

280 
WGUS63 KLBF 251211
FFALBF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
711 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011


NEZ004>010-022>026-035>037-056>059-069>071-094-251315-
/O.EXP.KLBF.FF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-110625T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-LOGAN-DEUEL-KEITH-
PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-WESTERN CHERRY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GORDON...RUSHVILLE...VALENTINE...
SPRINGVIEW...SPENCER...AINSWORTH...BASSETT...ONEILL...OSHKOSH...
HYANNIS...MULLEN...THEDFORD...DUNNING...ARTHUR...TRYON...
STAPLETON...CHAPPELL...BIG SPRINGS...OGALLALA...GRANT...
NORTH PLATTE...IMPERIAL...HAYES CENTER...CURTIS...EUSTIS...CODY...
MERRIMAN...KILGORE
711 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2011 /611 AM MDT SAT JUN 25 2011/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS EXPIRED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...THE EASTERN PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA AND WEST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA HAS EXPIRED. THERE WERE NO REPORTS OF FLOODING OR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AGAIN THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE LOCATION AND
STRENGTH OF A THUNDERSTORM SYSTEM IS HIGH.

$$
SPRINGER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
308 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2011

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON HAS ALREADY STARTED
TO FIRE STORMS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE SURFACE TROUGH. THE WESTERLY
FLOW WILL PUSH THE STORMS TO THE EAST INTO TONIGHT. MODELS IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS FORMING A MCS THAT MOVES ACROSS THE
CWA. MAJORITY OF THE MODELS FAVOR NORTHERN NEBRASKA...HOWEVER THE
NAM DOES TAKE THE SYSTEM MORE INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. STORMS
SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE...HOWEVER RICH MOIST ENVIRONMENT /PRECIP H2O
FROM 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES/ WILL ALLOW STORMS TO BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY
RAINFALL. SHORT TERM FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FROM JUST OVER AN INCH TO
AROUND 1.75 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...LOWEST IN SW NEB AND
PORTIONS OF N CENTRAL. THUS WILL HOIST FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MOST OF
THE AREA TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE FLOOD THREAT...THE STRONGEST
STORMS...ESPECIALLY EARLY ON ACROSS THE WEST...WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ANY STORM ALONG A BOUNDARY
COULD HAVE ENOUGH ROTATION TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

.LONGTERM...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THERE IS SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE NEAR TERM WITH FORECAST
TRENDED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS. THE STORMY PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHERE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTH CENTRAL
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXIST
THROUGHOUT AS EMBEDDED WAVES MOVE EAST. AN EXTENDED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHEAST ON THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL
THAT WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SATURDAY
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
NORTH THEN THE SEVERE THREAT TO SHIFT EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 BY
EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER RATIOS ARE OVER AN INCH WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS WELL. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST. THE
MODELS ARE SLOWER PUSHING THE SYSTEM EAST WHERE INCREASINGLY
SATURATED GROUNDS WILL RESULT IN MORE RUNOFF AND POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING AS STORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS. TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

MONDAY SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES EAST. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID 80S
SOUTHWEST. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DECREASES AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OTHERWISE TURNING DRIER AND WARMER THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE WEST COAST EAST TO THE
PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND TO THE EAST THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL STEP UPWARDS EACH DAY AND PEAK ON THURSDAY AS SOUTH WINDS
STRENGTHEN AND GOOD MIXING PUSHES TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S
THROUGHOUT.

.AVIATION...
VFR THIS EVENING AS A DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AS
THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONGEAL INTO A MCS
OVERNIGHT. IMPACT AT BOTH TERMINALS IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER MOST
MODELS FAVOR A MORE NORTHERN TRACK...AND IMPACT TO KVTN. HAVE
INCLUDED A CB WITH THE KLBF TAF TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY. BE
PREPARED FOR UPDATES AS THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPS WITH
BETTER TIMING. BY TOMORROW MORNING...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LOW MVFR
CIGS...HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE HAS RESULTED IN ONLY SCT015 IN LATEST
TAF FORECAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE ELKHORN IN CENTRAL HOLT COUNTY...WITH
THE GAGE AT ATKINSON STILL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. THE RIVER IS ON ITS
WAY DOWN...HOWEVER WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE RAINFALL OVERNIGHT AND
POSSIBLE RISES. THE NORTH PLATTE AND PLATTE RIVER FLOOD IS HOLDING
STEADY. UPSTREAM OF LAKE MCCONAUGHY WILL SEE A POSSIBLE DROP OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...HOWEVER A WET PATTERN MAY DELAY THE LOWERING.
DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE MCCONAUGHY NO CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM...AND
RAINFALL WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE TO CHANGES.

HIGH PROBABILITY FOR A MCS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. LOCATION
STILL IN QUESTION...HOWEVER WITH LOW FF GUIDANCE...HAVE ISSUED A FF
WATCH AS RICH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT WILL AIDE IN ANY THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF OVER AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION IN A SHORT DURATION.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT /
6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
NEZ004>010-022>026-035>037-056>059-069>071- 094.

&&

EXTENDED...KECK DAY 1/AVIATION/HYDROLOGY...MASEK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1242 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2011

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-251745-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
1242 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2011 /1142 AM MDT FRI JUN 24 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT. UNSTABLE AIR AND A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL INTERACT TO GENERATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY AS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INCREASING THROUGH THE
EVENING. WITH VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA IS ALSO POSSIBLE. IN THE NORTH...THERE
IS A RISK THAT THE STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
AND COULD PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...THOUGH THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
PERSISTENCE OF A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE LIFTING UNSTABLE AIR UP INTO NEBRASKA UNTIL A STRONGER
COLD FRONT COMES ACROSS SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE

MASEK