Areal Flood Advisory 13, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
259 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
H5 CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR. KLNX
RADAR LIGHTING UP AS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AND TORNADO WATCH
ALREADY IN PLACE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE MADE A SHIFT
WITH QPF FIELDS YET ONCE AGAIN. WITH RAPID INITIATION OF
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AFTERNOON QPF FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE.
WARM FRONT BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS
UPPER JET AND LLJ INTENSIFY. STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP ON BACKSIDE
OF SYSTEM WITH NORTHERLY FLOW JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. AREAS
OF HEAVY RAIN TO DEVELOP AND COUNTIES THAT HAD EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS
OF RAINFALL LAST NIGHT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES RECOVER SOME TUESDAY WITH UPPER
60S OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA WHERE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. SYSTEM WILL PULL SLOWLY EAST WEDNESDAY
BUT MAY STILL SEE SOME ISOLATED LIGHT RAINSHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN. WEAK SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND MAY INDUCE SHOWERS ALONG A STALLED OUT SURFACE
BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. HAVE RETAINED SLIGHT CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS THROUGH NEBRASKA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE BY MID
AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER REMAINING
WELL TO THE EAST OF BOTH THE LBF AND VTN TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE...STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST.  GUSTS AOA 30KTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z TOMORROW...LASTING THROUGH THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR AN ADDITIONAL
1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL.  HOWEVER WITHIN CONVECTIVE
STORMS...RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO TWO INCHES AN HOUR WILL BE
POSSIBLE.   THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LIFTING AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW FROM WEST CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING
WITH POSITIVE CAPE VALUES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG...MODEL SOUNDING
REVEAL THE PRESENCE OF LONG SKINNY CAPE...ALONG WITH K VALUES OF
GREATER THAN 35...ALL POINTING TO THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
ALSO...WITH MODEL CONSENSUS PWATS OF GREATER THAN 1.40 INCHES
GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 61 /WHICH IS 2 SD ABOVE THE MEAN/ AND
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE LESS THAN AN INCH OVER REGIONS THAT RECEIVED
HEAVY RAIN LAST NIGHT...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL BE PROBABLE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING FOR NEZ004>010-022>025-035>037-056>059-069>071-094.

TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ010-027>029-038.

&&

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...POWER
AVIATION...JACOBS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1220 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-211730-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
1220 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011 /1120 AM MDT MON JUN 20 2011/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ THIS
MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT FOR AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 183. ELSEWHERE...A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER
OUTLOOK TODAY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS FOR AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 183. SCATTERED SEVERE
STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WEST OF HIGHWAY 183
TO HIGHWAY 61.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL
PUSH NORTH NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL KANSAS INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA
LATER TODAY. MOISTURE WILL POOL JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHILE
THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE BY MID AFTERNOON. GIVEN
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WIND PROFILES...SEVERE STORMS APPEAR LIKELY
AFTER 22Z OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AGAIN LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...HOWEVER
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 183.

BESIDES THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL EFFICIENCY FROM STORMS
WILL BE HIGH. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL...WHICH COULD
CAUSE FLOODING CONCERNS. RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE
FROM ANY CONVECTIVE STORM DEVELOPMENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED TUESDAY FOR NORTHWEST WINDS OVER
30 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR
LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY 183...ELSEWHERE SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY
BE REQUIRED.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE

JACOBS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
239 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

NEZ069-202030-
CHASE NE-
139 PM MDT MON JUN 20 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CHASE COUNTY UNTIL
230 PM MDT...

AT 138 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WAUNETA...OR 17 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
IMPERIAL...MOVING WEST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  ENDERS...
  ENDERS RESERVOIR STATE RECREATION AREA...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

STOPPKOTTE