Areal Flood Advisory 21, NWS Key West, FL

227 
WGUS82 KKEY 192220
FLSKEY

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
620 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2011

FLC087-192231-
/O.EXP.KKEY.FA.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-111019T2215Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MIDDLE KEYS IN MONROE FL-MONROE/UPPER KEYS FL-
620 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2011

...THE URBAN FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS
HAS EXPIRED FOR MONROE/UPPER KEYS COUNTY...

IF YOU OBSERVE FLOODING...CONTACT YOUR KEY WEST NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE AT 3 0 5...2 9 5...1 3 1 6.

LAT...LON 2513 8037 2489 8066 2483 8077 2484 8077
      2481 8080 2479 8088 2476 8092 2470 8111
      2480 8092 2480 8087 2499 8054 2507 8047
      2510 8048 2510 8044 2521 8047 2520 8036
      2526 8034 2528 8037 2533 8028 2532 8027

$$

MSB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1013 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2011

.DISCUSSION...
KBYX RADAR SHOWS THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SHIFTED
EASTWARD AND ARE CURRENTLY STRETCHING ACROSS THE UPPER KEYS AND INTO
THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. WEAKER SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO STRETCH WESTWARD AND CONTINUE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
KEYS ISLAND CHAIN. CURRENT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 70S ALONG THE
ISLAND CHAIN THANKS TO THE RAIN.

A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL TURN WINDS TO THE WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN SPEED. BUT A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
BE WORKING THROUGH THE KEYS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WINDS WILL AGAIN SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT...REMAINING BREEZY
THROUGH TONIGHT.

IN THE SHORT TERM...PLAN TO ISSUE A ZONE UPDATE LATER THIS MORNING OR
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...MOSTLY TO REDUCE OUR RAIN PROBABILITY BACK TO A
CHANCE OR EVEN SLIGHT CHANCE...AND VEER THE INITIAL WIND DIRECTION TO
WEST/NORTHWEST. BUT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHIELD
PUSHES EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BREAK INTO THE LOWER AND MAYBE
EVEN THE MID 80S AFTER THE RAIN SHIELD DIMINISHES.

PLENTY OF RAIN HAS FALLEN THROUGHOUT THE KEYS...WITH SHORT TERM FLOOD
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES BEING THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. MANY LOW LYING AREAS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS HAVE STANDING
WATER...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER KEYS. LIMIT TRAVEL TODAY AND GIVE THE
WATER A CHANCE TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE ALREADY TURNING TO THE WEST IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
SERVICE AREA...AND SPEEDS ARE DECLINING IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH. I AM RELUCTANT TO END THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN
ANY MARINE ZONE THOUGH SINCE SEA CONDITIONS ARE WELL ESTABLISHED...AND
GOOD MIXING OF DRIER COOLER AIR IS NOT FAR BEHIND THE INITIAL TROUGH.
EXPECT INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS IN ALL ZONES AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE SERVICE AREA FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE MARATHON ISLAND
TERMINAL FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. PERIODIC MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THERE THROUGH TROUGH ABOUT 18Z. THEREAFTER...INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE. A FEW WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 15 AND 20
KNOTS...BECOMING STRONG WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY BY 18Z...WITH SPEEDS OF
20 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z AT EYW AND MTH.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GMZ031>034-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....FUTTERMAN
DATA COLLECTION.......ROTHWELL

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1248 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2011

FLZ076>078-GMZ031>034-042>044-052>055-072>075-201000-
MONROE UPPER KEYS-MONROE MIDDLE KEYS-MONROE LOWER KEYS-
FLORIDA BAY INCLUDING BLACKWATER AND BUTTONWOOD SOUNDS-
BAYSIDE AND GULF SIDE FROM CRAIG KEY TO HALFMOON SHOAL OUT TO
5 FATHOMS-
GULF WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE 20 TO 60 NM OUT
AND BEYOND 5 FATHOMS-
GULF OF MEXICO INCLUDING DRY TORTUGAS AND REBECCA SHOAL CHANNEL-
HAWK CHANNEL FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT TO THE REEF-
HAWK CHANNEL FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE OUT
TO THE REEF-
HAWK CHANNEL FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO HALFMOON SHOAL
OUT TO THE REEF-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO SOUTH OF
HALFMOON SHOAL OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM HALFMOON SHOAL TO 20 NM WEST OF DRY
TORTUGAS OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO SOUTH OF
HALFMOON SHOAL 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM HALFMOON SHOAL TO 20 NM WEST OF DRY
TORTUGAS 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
1248 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE ATLANTIC WATERS
ADJACENT TO THE UPPER KEYS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE STRONG...WITH WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS
TODAY DUE TO SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS...WITH PEAK GUSTS UP
TO GALE FORCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE EVEN HIGHER IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

ALTHOUGH HEAVY RAINS HAVE ENDED IN THE FLORIDA KEYS...THERE ARE MANY
LOCATIONS WITH STANDING WATER THANKS TO SEVERAL DAYS OF HEAVY RAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
THE WESTERN FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
824 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2011

FLZ077-078-191400-
MONROE MIDDLE KEYS-MONROE LOWER KEYS-
INCLUDING THE COMMUNITIES OF...MARATHON...KEY LARGO
824 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS IN MONROE COUNTY FOR EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID
UNTIL 1000 AM EDT...

AT 830 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND LIGHTNING
DETECTION DATA INDICATED A LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SOUTH OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE TO FLORIDA BAY...MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT
20 MPH.

EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 1000 AM.
POSTPONE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PROMPTLY. GO QUICKLY INSIDE A COMPLETELY
ENCLOSED BUILDING.

JOHNSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
826 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2011

FLZ077-078-191400-
MONROE MIDDLE KEYS-MONROE LOWER KEYS-
INCLUDING THE COMMUNITIES OF...MARATHON...KEY LARGO
826 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS IN MONROE COUNTY FOR EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID
UNTIL 1000 AM EDT...

AT 830 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND LIGHTNING
DETECTION DATA INDICATED A LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SOUTH OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE TO FLORIDA BAY...MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT
20 MPH.

EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 1000 AM.
POSTPONE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PROMPTLY. GO QUICKLY INSIDE A COMPLETELY
ENCLOSED BUILDING.

JOHNSON
COR SEND TIME

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
904 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2011

FLZ077-078-191400-
MONROE MIDDLE KEYS-MONROE UPPER KEYS-
INCLUDING THE COMMUNITIES OF...MARATHON...KEY LARGO
904 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS IN MONROE COUNTY FOR EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID
UNTIL 1000 AM EDT...

AT 905 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND LIGHTNING
DETECTION DATA INDICATED A LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH
OF MARATHON TO KEY LARGO AND FLORIDA BAY...MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT
20 MPH.

EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 1000 AM.
POSTPONE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PROMPTLY. GO QUICKLY INSIDE A COMPLETELY
ENCLOSED BUILDING.

JOHNSON
UPDATE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1252 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 AM     TSTM WND GST     BOCA CHICA              24.59N 81.70W
10/19/2011  M45.00 MPH       LOWER KEYS IN MONR FL   ASOS

            A WIND GUST OF 39 KNOTS...OR 45 MPH...FROM THE SOUTH WAS
            RECORDED BY THE AUTOMATED SENSOR AT THE BOCA CHICA NAVAL
            AIR STATION.

1245 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 5 S BOOT KEY            24.63N 81.11W
10/19/2011  M44.00 MPH       GMZ043             FL   BUOY

            A WIND GUST OF 38 KNOTS...OR 44 MPH...FROM THE SOUTH WAS
            RECORDED BY THE SOMBRERO KEY LIGHT C-MAN STATION.

0615 AM     HAIL             CUDJOE KEY              24.67N 81.50W
10/19/2011  E0.25 INCH       LOWER KEYS IN MONR FL   PUBLIC

            PEA-SIZED HAIL REPORTED ON CUDJOE KEY...WITH STRONG WINDS
            ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 40 KNOTS.

0756 AM     FLOOD            1 NNE KEY WEST          24.58N 81.77W
10/19/2011                   LOWER KEYS IN MONR FL   PUBLIC

            FLOODING WAS REPORTED IN SIGSBEE PARK.

0830 AM     FLOOD            1 ENE KEY WEST          24.57N 81.77W
10/19/2011                   LOWER KEYS IN MONR FL   PUBLIC

            FLOODING WAS REPORTED NEAR STADIUM APARTMENTS...WATER
            DEPTH ESTIMATED TO BE ABOVE THE OBSERVER KNEES.

0835 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 8 SSE KEY LARGO         25.01N 80.38W
10/19/2011  M41.00 MPH       GMZ052             FL   C-MAN STATION

            A WIND GUST OF 36 KNOTS...OR 41 MPH...FROM THE
            WEST-SOUTHWEST WAS RECORDED BY THE MOLASSES REEF C-MAN
            STATION.

0901 AM     FLOOD            MARATHON                24.71N 81.08W
10/19/2011                   MIDDLE KEYS IN MON FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED FLOODING OF THE OUTSIDE LANES
            ON US 1.

0918 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 5 S BOOT KEY            24.63N 81.11W
10/19/2011  M41.00 MPH       GMZ043             FL   C-MAN STATION

            A WIND GUST OF 36 KNOTS...OR 41 MPH...FROM THE WEST WAS
            RECORDED BY THE SOMBRERO KEY C-MAN STATION.

0940 AM     FLOOD            1 ENE KEY WEST          24.57N 81.77W
10/19/2011                   LOWER KEYS IN MONR FL   PUBLIC

            FLOODING REPORTED NEAR STADIUM APARTMENTS...WITH HIGH
            WATER LEVELS REACHING THE FRONT DOOR THRESHOLDS OF
            SEVERAL HOUSES.

&&

ROTHWELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
156 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 AM     WATER SPOUT      2 W KEY WEST            24.57N 81.81W
10/19/2011                   LOWER KEYS IN MONR FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A WATERSPOUT WAS REPORTED NEAR CHRISTMAS ISLAND AND
            OBSERVED THROUGH FLEMING ISLAND...WITH A SPRAY RING
            VISIBLE.

&&

ROTHWELL