Special Marine Warning 21, NWS JSJ

448 
FZCA72 TJSJ 162107
MWSSJU

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
507 PM AST MON MAY 16 2011

AMZ725-732-735-162115-
/O.CAN.TJSJ.MA.W.0021.000000T0000Z-110516T2115Z/
507 PM AST MON MAY 16 2011

...SPECIAL MARINE WARNING CANCELLED...

THE AFFECTED AREAS WERE...
WATERS SOUTHWEST OF VIEQUES AND SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO...

LAT...LON 1758 6605 1750 6636 1794 6621 1801 6613
      1802 6592 1813 6584 1816 6575 1808 6558
      1786 6556 1734 6586
TIME...MOT...LOC 2105Z 218DEG 19KT 1797 6593 1807 6567
          1793 6552

$$

JJA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST MON MAY 16 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE CORE OF THE SUB TROPICAL JET WILL REMAIN
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BE WEST SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST WITH RIDGING TO THE EAST AND
TROUGHING TO THE WEST.

AT MID LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES DURING THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NOSING INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
FIRM IN THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC.

AT LOWER LEVELS...SOUTH FLOW WILL SLOWLY TURN TO THE EAST DURING
THE NEXT 7 DAYS...BUT WILL KEEP THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WET THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFRICAN DUST WAS VISIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO TODAY AND
CUT VISIBILITIES DOWN FROM WELL OVER 30 MILES TO JUST BARELY 10
MILES. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE REMAINED MODERATE...
SHOWER ACTIVITY FOUND IT DIFFICULT TO GET ESTABLISHED OVER LAND
AREAS BEFORE 3 PM AST. NEVERTHELESS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVED NORTH FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND BECAME ISOLATED
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO. EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
CARRY MOISTURE NOW THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS THAT WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE USUAL DIURNAL PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. THE GFS IS DEPICTING THE LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC. HENCE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE BASIC
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NOT WITHSTANDING THE USUAL
VARIATIONS IN LOCAL MOISTURE FIELDS. EVEN AFTER THE LOW MOVES
OFFSHORE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST
INTO FLORIDA...MOISTURE PERSISTS WITH NO LESS THAN 1.75 INCHES AND
OFTEN ABOVE 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER DURING THE NEXT 10
DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP DAILY SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE BIT MID WEEK FOR THE
SAN JUAN AREA...WHICH SAW AT LEAST 91 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH...CENTRAL AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON.
AS A RESULT...BRIEF MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE STILL
EXPECTED ACROSS TJBQ...TJMZ AND POSSIBLY TJSJ THROUGH ABOUT 17/00Z.
LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING AT 16/12Z INDICATED S WINDS AT 10 TO 25 KTS
BTWN SFC TO 5 KFT. MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TNCM
TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...MODEST WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS BELOW 7 FEET FOR THE NEXT 7
DAYS...BUT THEY MAY BE LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  88  76  85 /  30  40  20  30
STT  77  87  78  86 /  40  40  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

23/12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
630 AM AST MON MAY 16 2011

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-171030-
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
THE NEARSHORE AND OFF SHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
630 AM AST MON MAY 16 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECTED INTERIOR AND
NORTH SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO TODAY AND TONIGHT. URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING ARE LIKELY TODAY WITH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY.
ALSO...RAPID RISES IN RIVERS AS WELL AS MUDSLIDES IN STEEP TERRAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED. STRONG GUSTY WINDS NEAR 35 MPH WILL ACCOMPANY
THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SATURATED SOILS AND DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON WILL KEEP THE LOCAL AREA PRONE TO
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING AS WELL AS MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

REPORTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
HAZARDS WILL BE APPRECIATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-171030-
ST. THOMAS ST. JOHN ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
NEARSHORE ATLANTIC AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
630 AM AST MON MAY 16 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECTED
PORTIONS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODING ARE LIKELY TODAY WITH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY.
MUDSLIDES IN STEEP TERRAIN CAN BE EXPECTED. STRONG GUSTY WINDS
NEAR 35 MPH WILL ACCOMPANY THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SATURATED SOILS WILL KEEP THE LOCAL AREA PRONE TO URBAN AND
MINOR FLOODING OF GUTS AND STREAMS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

REPORTS OF RAINFALL...FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAZARDS
WILL BE APPRECIATED.