Special Marine Warning 13, NWS JSJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
305 PM AST SAT MAY 14 2011

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
MIGRATE EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. CUTTOFF LOW NORTH OF
THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TONIGHT. SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE ACROSS
THE TROP ATLC WILL BUILD WWD INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VARIABLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE MORNING HOURS WHILE THE
WESTERN PORTIONS ENJOYED PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BY THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...THE WEATHER SCENARIO CHANGED AS DIURNAL
HEATING COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO PRODUCE ACTIVE
WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO...ESPECIALLY THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS EVENING. FOR
TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE ANTICIPATED...WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CONCENTRATE
MAINLY OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE
EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IN FACT...PROGNOSTIC SOUNDINGS
INDICATED SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER...
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND LINGERING
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE ISLAND SUN-MON.

EQUATORIAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIDE NORTHWARD...REACHING
THE LOCAL ISLANDS ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS DEEP MOISTURE
WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA TO PUERTO RICO/LESSER
ANTILLES...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS TO CONCENTRATE OVER THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND CARIBBEAN WATERS. AS A RESULT...ANOTHER ROUND OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
FLYING AREA BTW ERN PR AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS THROUGH 15/00Z.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CONDS DUE TO LOW CIGS WITH SHRA/ISOLD
TSRA ACTIVITY ACROSS TJSJ..TJNR...TISX...TIST...TCNM AND TKPK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  74  86  75 /  60  20  50  20
STT  84  76  84  75 /  50  30  30  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

12/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
421 AM AST SAT MAY 14 2011

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-150830-
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
THE NEARSHORE AND OFF SHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
421 AM AST SAT MAY 14 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECTED EAST AND
NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO TODAY AND TONIGHT. URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODING ARE LIKELY TODAY WITH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY.
ALSO...RAPID RISES IN RIVERS AS WELL AS MUDSLIDES IN STEEP TERRAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED. STRONG GUSTY WINDS NEAR 35 MPH WILL ACCOMPANY
THESE SHOWERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SATURATED SOILS AND DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EACH AFTERNOON WILL KEEP THE LOCAL AREA PRONE TO URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING AS WELL AS MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

REPORTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
HAZARDS WILL BE APPRECIATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-150830-
ST. THOMAS ST. JOHN ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
NEARSHORE ATLANTIC AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
421 AM AST SAT MAY 14 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECTED MOST OF THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING
ARE LIKELY TODAY WITH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY. MUDSLIDES IN STEEP
TERRAIN CAN BE EXPECTED. STRONG GUSTY WINDS NEAR 35 MPH WILL
ACCOMPANY THESE SHOWERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SATURATED SOILS WILL KEEP THE LOCAL AREA PRONE TO URBAN AND
MINOR FLOODING OF GUTS AND STREAMS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
REPORTS OF RAINFALL...FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAZARDS WILL
BE APPRECIATED.

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