Special Marine Warning 101, NWS JSJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1102 AM AST TUE AUG 16 2011

.UPDATE...NO CHANGES TO SHORT TERM ANALYSIS AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
RAPIDLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY REMAINS OVER
CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO...SAINT CROIX SOUTH...WHERE THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS SIGNIFICANT AS THE TROPICAL WAVE
PUSHES WESTWARD. STILL EXPECTING SOME SQUALLY WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE...FOR THIS AFTERNOON
TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS TJSJ...TJPS...TJMZ...AND
TJBQ IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EAST AT 15 TO 20 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM AST TUE AUG 16 2011/

SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS. TROPICAL WAVE NOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA WILL MOVE WEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS AND BRING SQUALLY WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DISCUSSION...BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED TO A
STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...NOW LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...
HAVE AFFECTED THE EASTERN WATERS AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE AVERAGE SPEED OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS 25
KNOTS. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THESE SHOWERS HAVE PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS
..DUE TO THE FAST STORM MOTION...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN LOW.
THE FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGHER AS RAIN BANDS BECOME MORE
FREQUENT THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL THE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS ASSOCIATED TO THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERS TOMS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE
DECREASED CONSIDERABLY AT AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT NEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE APPEARED AS THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM MOVES
CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN.

THE NHC GIVE THIS WAVE A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
TKPK...TNCM...TIST...TISX AND TJSJ DURING THE MORNING HOURS IN
PASSING SHRA. FOR THIS AFTERNOON TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS TJSJ...TJPS...TJMZ...AND TJBQ IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY EAST AT 15 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN SHRA/TSRA.

MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE AS A STRONG
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. THIS WAVE WILL
GENERATE SQUALLY WEATHER CONDITIONS AS RAIN BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS...MAINLY THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. A WIND
SURGE BEHIND THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL RESULT IN A FURTHER INCREASE
IN WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  87  79  89  79 /  50  50  30  40
STT  90  80  91  81 /  60  50  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

15/25

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