Areal Flood Warning 41, NWS JSJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
610 PM AST SUN AUG 21 2011

.SYNOPSIS...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
ISLANDS OF SAINT CROIX THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST
AT AROUND 18 KNOTS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK IRENE WILL MOVE OVER THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER PUERTO RICO
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BRINGING INCREASINGLY HAZARDOUS WIND AND
SEA CONDITIONS TO THE REGIONAL WATERS. ALL LOCAL MARINE INTERESTS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL WAVE COULD BE SEEN
CLEARLY OVER THE ISLAND OF ST CROIX ON THE RADAR IMAGES. ALTHOUGH
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OVER ST CROIX THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE
REPORTED UNTIL NOW WERE OVER THE ISLANDS OF ST THOMAS AND ST JOHN
WERE GUSTS OF 68 MPH. ALSO HEAVY RAIN AFFECTED THE NORTHERN VIRGIN
ISLANDS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER CULEBRA...VIEQUES
AND PUERTO RICO.

IRENE IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED IN ITS APPEARANCE ON
SATELLITE IMAGES...WITH CURVED BANDS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. AT
THIS POINT...IRENE REPRESENTS A SERIOUS THREAT TO THE LOCAL AREA...
SINCE THE STORM CENTER IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER SAINT CROIX LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER PUERTO RICO LATER THIS EVENING. THIS
IMPLIES AN IMMINENT RISK FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND
FREQUENT BANDS OF INTENSE RAINFALL. THESE BANDS OF MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE EASTERN
HALF OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...SPREADING WESTWARD
LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING
AHEAD OF THE TS IRENE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE ISLAND OF ST CROIX.
SHRA/TSRA WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE EAST...MAINLY
DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FREQUENT MVFR/IFR CONDS WITH TS FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY AS THE TS
IRENE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...PR AND USVI. WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AS TROPICAL STORM IRENE NOW LOCATED OVER THE ISLAND OF
ST CROIX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR STRONG
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 35 TO 50 MPH RANGE
WITH GUSTS OF 65 MPH OR GREATER. EAST SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BUILD SIGNIFICANTLY
BY THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 14
FEET ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  80  86  79  88 /  80  70  50  30
STT  80  88  80  87 /  90  70  50  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...HURRICANE WARNING FOR CENTRAL INTERIOR-CULEBRA-EASTERN INTERIOR-
     MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-
     PONCE AND VICINITY-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-
     SOUTHWEST-VIEQUES-WESTERN INTERIOR.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL INTERIOR-
     CULEBRA-EASTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-NORTH
     CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-PONCE AND VICINITY-SAN JUAN AND
     VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-SOUTHWEST-VIEQUES-WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR ST CROIX-ST.
     THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

     HURRICANE WATCH FOR ST CROIX-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT
     ISLANDS.

     TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST CROIX-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT
     ISLANDS.

&&

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