Areal Flood Warning 3, NWS JSJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
314 PM AST FRI MAY 20 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER
JUST WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A SUBEQUATORIAL
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTED THE ENTIRE ISLAND
OF PUERTO RICO. THE AREA MOST AFFECTED WAST THE EASTERN HALF OF
PUERTO RICO WHERE SEVERAL ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED. SATELLITE IMAGES
ARE SHOWING MORE SHOWERS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS. SATURATED SOILS WILL
MAINTAIN A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR MORE FLOODING TO OCCUR.

A MID UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER
JUST WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...RESULTING IN A
WEST SOUTHWEST MID TO UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. IN
ADDITION...A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

MOST PREVALENT ACTIVITY COMING IN WITH EAST TO SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW
RESULTING IN ENOUGH DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTION FOR ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY.
PUSH OF EASTERLY WAVE NOW LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL
CONTINUE THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM EAST THROUGH SATURDAY. AS A
RESULT...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECT TO PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS
THE VI. THE POTENTIAL REMAIN HIGH FOR FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING AS
WELL AS MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. THEREFORE A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...PREDOMINANT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EVENING AS RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
XCPT LEEWARD ISLANDS TERMINALS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT AFTER
03Z SAT. SIG IMPROVEMENT TO THE WX NOT XPCD UNTIL SUN.

&&

.MARINE...WIND WAS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH
STRONGER GUSTS NEAR THE THUNDERSTORMS. AS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. MARINERS CAN EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES...LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. THESE STORMS ALSO COULD PRODUCE WATERSPOUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  83  74  86  76 /  80  40  60  20
STT  83  76  84  77 /  70  50  40  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     INTERIOR-CULEBRA-EASTERN INTERIOR-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-
     SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-VIEQUES.

VI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR ST CROIX-ST.
     THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

&&

06/10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
642 AM AST FRI MAY 20 2011

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-211000-
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
THE NEARSHORE AND OFF SHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
642 AM AST FRI MAY 20 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO
RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA. PLEASE REFER TO FLOOD MESSAGE/FFASJU/
FOR MORE DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ANY REPORTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL GREATER THAN THREE INCHES OR
FLOODING WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED.

AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-211000-
ST. THOMAS ST. JOHN ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
NEARSHORE ATLANTIC AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
642 AM AST FRI MAY 20 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO FLOOD MESSAGE/FFASJU/ FOR
MORE DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ANY REPORTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL GREATER THAN THREE INCHES OR
FLOODING WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED.

ROSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
734 PM AST FRI MAY 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM       FLOOD             FREDERIKSTED          17.71N 64.88W
05/20/2011                       SAINT CROIX    VI    EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL ROADS FLOODED AND BLOCKED ACROSS THE WESTERN END
            OF ST CROIX.

&&

ER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
839 PM AST FRI MAY 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0811 PM     FLOOD            VEGA BAJA               18.44N 66.40W
05/20/2011                   VEGA BAJA          PR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROAD 2 WAS REPORTED IMPASSABLE NEAR NUEVO HOSPITAL AND
            FEW CREEKS OUT OF ITS BANKS.

&&

FCASTRO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
907 PM AST FRI MAY 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0906 PM     FLOOD            VEGA BAJA               18.44N 66.40W
05/20/2011                   VEGA BAJA          PR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROAD 620 IN FATIMA SECTOR WAS REPORTED FLOODED AND WAS
            CLOSED DUE TO RIO CIBUCO OUT OF ITS BANKS.

&&

FCASTRO

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