Areal Flood Warning 27, NWS JSJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
309 PM AST FRI JUL 1 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A CUT-OFF LOW OVER EASTERN CUBA WILL
RETREAT NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN OVER THE LOCAL AREA
OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO CUBA
DURING THE WEEK. A TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWEST OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS DURING THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...A WEAK LOBE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE
LOCAL AREA RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH. MID LEVELS ARE ONLY DRY
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW LOCATED IN THE
ANEGADA PASSAGE WITH MOST OF ITS ASSOCIATED WEATHER AHEAD OF IT AS
FAR WEST AS THE MONA PASSAGE. IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST THROUGH
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOME TRAILING MOISTURE AND
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH MONDAY.
STRONG TRADE WINDS CONTINUE BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE DRIER TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...GUSTY WINDS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED INTO
SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO AND THE CARIBBEAN WATERS TODAY...AND SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMED OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS ON THE NORTH
COAST. IT IS EXPECTED THAT ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER
THE AREA AND SPREAD NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
RAIN AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS AND
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND SAINT CROIX. AT THIS TIME
WINDS AND SHOWERS ARE VERIFYING THE WETTER NAM MODEL AND IT IS
FORECASTING PULSES OF MOISTURE TO CONTINUE WITH THE WAVE AND IN
THE MOIST FLOW BEHIND IT ON AND OFF THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS ARE
DRIER AFTER THIS...BUT A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AT LEAST SAINT CROIX AND THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF PUERTO RICO IS UNDER CONSIDERATION.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR WILL SPREAD OVER PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT IF THEY ARE NOT ALREADY UNDER.
CONTINUED POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AND
STRONGER WINDS AT 3 TO 10 THOUSAND FEET WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO PRESENT
HAZARDS TO AVIATION. TOPS OF MUCH OF THE CONVECTION IS 30 TO 40
THOUSAND FEET WITH ISOLATED TOPS TO 60 THOUSAND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  89  78  88 /  70  60  20  30
STT  79  88  80  90 /  80  60  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...SCA...TONGT...AMZ710-722-725-732-735-741.
VI...SCA...TONGT...AMZ710-722-725-732.
&&

54/12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
628 AM AST FRI JUL 1 2011

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-021030-
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
THE NEARSHORE AND OFF SHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
628 AM AST FRI JUL 1 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR...
ESPECIALLY OVER CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE SOUTH AND EAST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING...THEN OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS. ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OR RIVER
RISES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING ARE EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ANY REPORTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL OR FLOODING WOULD BE GREATLY
APPRECIATED.

AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-021030-
ST. THOMAS ST. JOHN ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
NEARSHORE ATLANTIC AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
628 AM AST FRI JUL 1 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
SOME LOCALIZED URBAN AND GUT FLOODING ARE EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ANY REPORTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL OR FLOODING WOULD BE GREATLY
APPRECIATED.

PRC037-053-069-085-089-095-103-119-151-011930-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
242 PM AST FRI JUL 1 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 330 PM AST FOR PEOPLE IN THE FOLLOWING
MUNICIPALITIES
IN PUERTO RICO
     LAS PIEDRAS...LUQUILLO...MAUNABO...NAGUABO...CEIBA...FAJARDO...
     HUMACAO...RIO GRANDE AND YABUCOA

INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
     AGUAS CLARAS...ANTON RUIZ...CEIBA...MAUNABO...EMAJAGUA...
     HUMACAO...NAGUABO...PUNTA SANTIAGO...ROOSEVELT ROADS AND YABUCOA

AT 236 PM AST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST COAST
OF PUERTO RICO. THEY HAVE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 45
MPH AS THEY MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT 30 MPH.

GV

SPSSPN
PRC037-053-069-085-089-095-103-119-151-011930-

COMUNICADO ESPECIAL SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO
SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
242 PM AST VIERNES 1 DE JULIO DE 2011

EL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA EN SAN JUAN HA EMITIDO UN
COMUNICADO ESPECIAL SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EFECTO HASTA
LA 3:30 PM AST PARA LAS PERSONAS EN LOS SIGUIENTES MUNICIPIOS

EN PUERTO RICO
LAS PIEDRAS...LUQUILLO...MAUNABO...NAGUABO...CEIBA...FAJARDO...
HUMACAO...RIO GRANDE Y YABUCOA

INCLUYENDO LAS SIGUIENTES LOCALIDADES
AGUAS CLARAS...ANTON RUIZ...CEIBA...MAUNABO...EMAJAGUA...
HUMACAO...NAGUABO...PUNTA SANTIAGO...ROOSEVELT ROADS Y YABUCOA

A LAS 2:36 PM AST...EL RADAR DOPPLER DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE
METEOROLOGIA INDICO AHGUACEROS NUMEROSOS Y TRONADAS FUERTES
MOVIENDOSE HACIA LA COSTA SURESTE DE PUERTO RICO. ESTAS TRONADAS SON
CAPAZES DE PRODUCIR RAFAGAS DE 45 MPH MIENTRAS SE MUEVEN HACIA EL
NOROESTE A 30 MPH.

GV/DS

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