Areal Flood Warning 22, NWS JSJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
524 AM AST TUE JUN 7 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS
MAINTAINING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA AT THE SURFACE. LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS SOUTHERLY...VEERING FROM THE SURFACE AND IS
CONTINUING TO BRING COPIOUS MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LIGHT TO MODERATE BUT CONTINUOUS RAIN AFFECTED THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...GENERATING RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF BETWEEN .5 TO 2 INCHES. THE MOST AFFECTED AREA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WAS THE ISLAND OF ST CROIX WERE
TRAIN EFFECT OCCURED OVER THE ISLAND GENERATING MORE THAN 3 INCHES.
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES SHOWS A MORE SHOWERS DOWNSTREAM...AND
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER ST CROIX THROUGH MID MORNING
AGGRAVATING THE FLOOD AND LAND SLIDE SITUATION. ALSO THE RADAR
IMAGES ARE SHOWING A STORM MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH...THEREFORE
SIMILAR AMOUNTS COULD BE SEEN OVER THE NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS OR THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING.

SOUTH WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER
THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AT THIS MOMENT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN LOW ACROSS THE PUERTO RICO BUT THE
CONTINUOUS LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL KEEP SOILS SATURATED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND THE NAM SUGGEST ANOTHER BATCH OF
MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
TIME THE AREA THAT WILL BE MORE AFFECTED IS THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO. ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST A SLOW DECREASE ON
MOISTURE AFTER WEDNESDAY...IT WILL BE SLOW AND ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE TO GENERATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS TISX THROUGH
AT LEAST 07/14Z BECOMING MVFR AFTER. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS
TIST...AND TJPS THROUGH AT LEAST 07/16Z. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FROM
THE SOUTH AT 10KT.

&&

.MARINE...THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH WEEK. ROUGH SEAS AND HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  86  75  90  76 /  70  50  50  20
STT  85  77  87  79 /  70  50  50  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL INTERIOR-
     CULEBRA-EASTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-NORTH
     CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-PONCE AND VICINITY-SAN JUAN AND
     VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-SOUTHWEST-VIEQUES-WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR ST CROIX-ST.
     THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

&&

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