Areal Flood Warning 13, NWS JSJ

037 
WGCA82 TJSJ 022155
FLSSJU

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
555 PM AST THU JUN 2 2011

PRC053-022205-
/O.CAN.TJSJ.FA.W.0013.000000T0000Z-110602T2345Z/
FAJARDO PR-
555 PM AST THU JUN 2 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR FAJARDO MUNICIPALITY...

RESIDENTS AND MOTORISTS ACROSS THESE AREAS SHOULD HOWEVER BE ALERT TO
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND ALLOW TIME FOR STREAMS...CREEKS AND
RIVERS TO RETURN TO NORMAL LEVELS.

LAT...LON 1829 6572 1834 6563 1831 6562 1826 6571

$$

MARTINEZ

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
     HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
333 PM AST THU JUN 2 2011

.SYNOPSIS...POLAR TROUGH TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WRN ATLC OVR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AND BEGIN TO ERODE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN. BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES LOCATED ACROSS THE WEST
CNTRL CARIBBEAN XPCD TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK FOR
DETAILS ON POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND FLOODING EVENT EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AFTER COORDINATION WITH HPC INTERNATIONAL DESK THIS
AFTERNOON WE CONTINUE TO LEAN ON 00Z/06Z GFS SOLUTION GIVING
EMPHASIS TO INTERACTION OF POLAR TROUGH ACROSS THE GREATER
ANTILLES WITH MOIST TONGUE EXTENDING FROM JAMAICA NORTHEAST
THROUGH HISPANIOLA AND TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO RATHER THAN A
TROUGH FORMING ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AND LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA. AS TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE ATLC XPC A
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK TO MOVE NORTH OF THE ANTILLES AND HELP
TIGHTEN AND DRIVE SOUTH A STRONG SFC CONVERGENCE BDRY VERY NEAR PR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL HELP SUSTAIN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
SOMETIME IN THE SUNDAY TO TUESDAY TIME FRAME. WE PREFER THE
00Z/06Z GFS AND GFES SOLUTIONS WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL ON SUNDAY RATHER THAN MONDAY AS SUGGESTED BY THE 12Z GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT JSJ/JBQ/JMZ NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
SCT/NMRS TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FT BUT LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  84  77  85 /  30  60  30  70
STT  79  87  79  85 /  30  40  30  70

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

64/64

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
617 AM AST THU JUN 2 2011

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-031030-
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
THE NEARSHORE AND OFF SHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
617 AM AST THU JUN 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS...
WHICH WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER PUERTO RICO. DUE TO
FAIRLY SATURATED SOILS... PROLONGED PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL...THIS WILL RESULT IN URBAN FLOODING...RAPID RISES IN
SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS...AND MAY TRIGGER MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN AS WELL AS POSSIBLE RIVER FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC LATER THIS WEEK WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP NORTH OF HISPANIOLA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS LOW TRACKS
EASTWARD NORTH OF PUERTO RICO OVER THE WEEKEND IT WILL DRAG A LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HELP SUSTAIN
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE SUNDAY TO TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING OF
SMALL STREAMS AND LARGER RIVERS APPEARS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-031030-
ST. THOMAS ST. JOHN ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
NEARSHORE ATLANTIC AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
617 AM AST THU JUN 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AS AN AREA OF CONVECTIVE WEATHER APPROACHES THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WHICH MAY
CAUSE URBAN FLOODING ACROSS THE ISLANDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC LATER THIS WEEK WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP NORTH OF HISPANIOLA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS LOW TRACKS
EASTWARD NORTH OF PUERTO RICO OVER THE WEEKEND IT WILL DRAG A LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND HELP
SUSTAIN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE SUNDAY TO TUESDAY TIME
FRAME. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING APPEARS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.