Areal Flood Advisory 521, NWS JSJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
244 PM AST WED NOV 2 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A VERY UNSTABLE AND FAIRLY WET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS A POLAR TROUGH CONTINUES TO
INTENSIFY/DEEPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOALETD TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTED THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO. THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER REMAINED OVER WATERS SURROUNDING
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS ACTIVE AREA MOVED SLOWLY WEST GENERATING
A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE ON SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. ALSO DEEP MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH DIURNAL HEATING TRIGGER
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTH WEST PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO.

A VERY UNSTABLE AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY.
AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER IN RESPONSE TO AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH...A
GRADUAL INCREASE ON MOISTURE IS EXPECTED...WITH PW VALUES AROUND 2.20
INCHES ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. THE
POLAR TROUGH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OVER THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING A SHEARLINE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH
AND AFFECT THE TJNR...TJSJ AND TJBQ THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
GENERATING OCCASIONAL MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THESE
TERMINALS. TONIGHT...MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND AFFECT THE ALL U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
TERMINALS...TNCM AND TJPS ALSO GENERATING OCCASIONAL MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THESE TERMINALS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...LATEST REPORTS FROM THE 41043 AND 41053 BUOYS CONTINUE
TO SHOW WAVE HEIGHT WELL BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL LOCAL
WATERS. THEREFORE DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL LOCAL
WATERS. THE BUOY 41048 LOCATED ABOUT 920 MILES NNW OF SAN JUAN HAS
BEEN REPORTING SWELLS OF ABOVE 11 FEET WITH PERIOD OF 12 SECONDS
SINCE 3 AM. THESE SWELLS WILL TAKE ABOUT 48 HOURS TO REACH OUR
LOCAL WATERS. EXPECT THESE SWELLS TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 7 TO 8
FEET AS THEY MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND
ALL PASSAGES. THE PERIOD WILL BE THE MAIN DANGEROUS FACTOR AS WAVE
WITH THIS PARAMETER...7 TO 8 FEET AND 12 TO 14 SECONDS... COULD
GENERATE BREAKING WAVES OF BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FEET...A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY COULD BE ISSUE FOR ALL ATLANTIC EXPOSED BEACHES. A BIGGER
SWELL EVENT COULD BE REACHING OUR LOCAL WATERS ON MONDAY MORNING
BUT WENT ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE AS THIS WAVE FORECAST COULD BE
CONTAMINATED WITH STRONG WINDS IN THE REGION ASSOCIATED TO THE
SHEARLINE IN THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  85  76  86 /  70  80  40  40
STT  78  85  78  86 /  80  80  70  60

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

25/10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
549 AM AST WED NOV 2 2011

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-031000-
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
THE NEARSHORE AND OFF SHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
549 AM AST WED NOV 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH DEEP MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL BEGINNING THURSDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AND A
FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-031000-
ST. THOMAS ST. JOHN ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
NEARSHORE ATLANTIC AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
549 AM AST WED NOV 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS AND MORE THAN LIKELY
AFFECT THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THESE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSE A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH DEEP MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL BEGINNING THURSDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AND A
FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...REPORTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL GREATER THAN 3 INCHES OR
FLOODING WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED.

ROSA