Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS Jackson, KY

557 
WWUS53 KJKL 240047
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
847 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2011

KYC011-165-173-197-240100-
/O.CON.KJKL.SV.W.0099.000000T0000Z-110424T0100Z/
BATH KY-MONTGOMERY KY-MENIFEE KY-POWELL KY-
847 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
POWELL...WEST CENTRAL MENIFEE...MONTGOMERY AND SOUTHERN BATH COUNTIES
UNTIL 900 PM EDT...

AT 845 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
CAMARGO...OR NEAR MOUNT STERLING...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HOPE...CROOKS...CLAY LICK AND PRESTON AROUND 855 PM EDT.
  OLYMPIA SPRINGS AROUND 900 PM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3812 8364 3789 8362 3788 8402 3792 8401
      3794 8399 3802 8404 3807 8407 3808 8407
      3808 8406
TIME...MOT...LOC 0046Z 258DEG 39KT 3801 8387
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

RICHEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
759 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2011

.SHORT TERM...UPDATED

MESOSCALE UPDATE...

ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THEY WERE
PREVIOUSLY PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER...BUT HAVE SINCE BECOME LESS
INTENSE. THE MAIN WORRY I HAVE IS FOR FLASH FLOODING IN THE BLUEGRASS
DUE TO THE PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE AREA. BECAUSE THIS AREA WAS
WORKED OVER SO WELL BY THE LAST LINE OF STORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH...I
EXPECT THESE STORMS TO STAY SUB SEVERE.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO HAVE THE
STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER INTO SOUTHERN OHIO.
IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT HAS LED TO VERY HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER BASIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH NUMEROUS FLASH
FLOOD WARNINGS. THIS ACTIVITY FOR THE MOST PART HAS REMAINED NORTH
AND WEST OF FLEMING COUNTY WITH ONLY A FEW PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
SCRAPING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT REMAINS AROUND THE SEVERE THREAT
FROM THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE
NORTH.

FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...LATEST RADAR TRENDS IS FOR EVERYTHING
TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY BRING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO AREAS NORTH OF I-64 BY THIS EVENING.
STILL PLENTY OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR TO PROVIDE A SEVERE THREAT THROUGH
TONIGHT. WITH THE TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. AS
FAR AS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL GOES...PWS REMAIN JUST OVER 1 INCH
THROUGH TONIGHT AND THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR MORE
TORRENTIAL RAINS NORTH OF I-64. WITH THIS POTENTIAL...GOING TO HOIST
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR FLEMING...BATH...AND ROWAN COUNTIES THROUGH
00Z MONDAY. SOME PLACES UP NORTH HAVE ALREADY HAD OVER AN INCH FROM
LAST NIGHTS RAINFALL...SO IT MAY NOT TAKE MUCH MORE TO CAUSE MORE
SERIOUS PROBLEMS.

SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL WANE BY LATE THIS EVENING...PERHAPS
PROVIDING ANOTHER BREAK TO AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY RAMP UP AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER
SERIES OF NOCTURNAL MCS FORMING. THIS AGAIN WILL AID IN THE FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL IN THE NORTH. MUCH LIKE THIS MORNING...THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD FALL APART SUNDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE ANOTHER LULL IN THE
ACTIVITY AROUND MIDDAY TOMORROW...BEFORE THE THREAT OF MORE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES. ONCE AGAIN...THESE STORMS COULD
TURN SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD RETREAT FAR
ENOUGH NORTH TO ALLOW FOR DRIER NIGHT IN THE NORTH. THESE DRY
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HOLD FOR MONDAY...ALTHOUGH VERY MILD
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH THE VERY MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

THERE IS OVERALL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE BIG
PICTURE...BUT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND DETAILS AFFECT THE PRECIP
FORECAST ON TUESDAY AND THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THERE IS ALSO SOME UNCERTAINTY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DUE TO
AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO PRESENT IN SOME GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE GFS BRINGS A WEAKENING AREA OF
CONVECTION INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AS IT RACES EAST AND AWAY
FROM A STALLING COLD FRONT WELL TO OUR WEST. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND
WEAKENS IT FASTER. OPTED TO GO BELOW THE MEXMOS POPS DUE TO LACK OF
CONFIDENCE IN A CONVECTION FORECAST AT THAT TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY
WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE SURFACE FEATURES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.
ANOTHER DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE NE ON THE
FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM OR INITIATE NEAR IT AND MOVE FURTHER INTO OUR WARM SECTOR.
THIS WILL MEAN PERSISTENT POPS FOR OUR AREA EVEN WITH THE SURFACE
FEATURES REMAINING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. ONCE AGAIN...CONFIDENCE FOR
CONVECTION IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH THE MEXMOS POPS AND HAVE
UNDERCUT THEM SLIGHTLY. MODELS DUE AGREE ON COLD FROPA SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE USED LIKELY POPS EVERYWHERE.

THE GFS IS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE DEEP LOW
TO THE NE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND THE GFS SHOWS THE LOW
ELONGATED MORE NORTH-SOUTH. THE RESULT IS LOW LEVEL WINDS IN THE GFS
WITH MORE OF A NORTHERLY COMPONENT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND COLDER
AIR MAKING IT FURTHER SOUTH. OPTED FOR A COMPROMISE ON TEMPS AT THIS
POINT. MOISTURE WRAPPED AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM ALSO PROVIDES
A POTENTIAL OF SHOWERS YET ON THURSDAY.

AFTER CHILLY TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER ON THURSDAY NIGHT...CAN NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT PRECIP FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH
OPERATIONAL MODELS LOOK DRY...THERE ARE A COUPLE OF 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS WHICH BRING ANOTHER FRONT IN FROM THE WEST WITH PRECIP DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. USED A TOKEN 20 PERCENT POP WHICH IS CLOSE TO WHAT
WAS IN THE MEXMOS...BUT STILL BELOW CLIMO.
&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/...UPDATED

VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AT THE MOMENT. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS OUT TO THE WEST OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STAY TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE MAY BE SOME STRAY THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE TAF STATIONS TONIGHT...HOWEVER THEY CHANCES ARE PRETTY LOW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052.

&&

SHORT TERM...KAS/JJ
LONG TERM....HAL
AVIATION...JJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
413 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2011

KYZ044-050>052-250000-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD
413 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.

IN ADDITION...FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. SEE ONGOING
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SUNDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.

FLASH FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY. SEE ONGOING FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN AGAIN FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HAIL...ANY WIND DAMAGE...OR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

KYZ058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-250000-
ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-
MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-
MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-
MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...
PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...
CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...
HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...
INEZ...PIKEVILLE
413 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE HAL RODGERS PARKWAY AND
HIGHWAY 80 THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN NORTH OF THE HAL RODGERS PARKWAY AND
HIGHWAY 80 ON SUNDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN AGAIN FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HAIL...ANY WIND DAMAGE...OR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

KAS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
457 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2011

KYZ044-051-052-104-106-107-232145-
FLEMING-ROWAN-BATH-ELLIOTT-JOHNSON-MORGAN-
457 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2011

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES
THROUGH 545 PM EDT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

   SOUTHEASTERN FLEMING...
   ROWAN...
   EAST CENTRAL BATH...
   ELLIOTT...
   NORTHERN MORGAN AND
   EXTREME NORTHWESTERN JOHNSON.

AT 458 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTH OF HALDEMAN TO MOREHEAD TO MIDLAND...OR
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF MOREHEAD TO
MOREHEAD TO 9 MILES EAST OF OWINGSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...ZILPO AROUND
505 PM EDT...WAGNER STORE AROUND 510 PM EDT...PARAGON AROUND 515 PM
EDT...STARK AROUND 520 PM EDT...YOCUM AROUND 525 PM EDT...

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP
TO **** INCHES PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

JJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
814 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2011

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-104-106-108-240115-
FLEMING-ROWAN-BATH-ELLIOTT-MONTGOMERY-MENIFEE-POWELL-ESTILL-MORGAN-
WOLFE-
814 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2011

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES
THROUGH 915 PM EDT SATURDAY EVENING...

   FLEMING...
   ROWAN...
   BATH...
   NORTHWESTERN ELLIOTT...
   MONTGOMERY...
   NORTHWESTERN MORGAN...
   MENIFEE...
   NORTHERN POWELL...
   EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL WOLFE AND
   EXTREME NORTHWESTERN ESTILL.

AT 813 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 23 MILES NORTHWEST OF FAIRVIEW TO 12 MILES WEST OF
SIDEVIEW TO 22 MILES WEST OF CRESSY...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
17 MILES NORTH OF CYNTHIANA TO PARIS TO 8 MILES EAST OF
NICHOLASVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN
ONE AND TWO INCHES PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS.
MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO DRIVE CAREFULLY.

JACOBSON