Severe Thunderstorm Warning 272, NWS Jackson, KY

876 
WWUS53 KJKL 212337
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
737 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

KYC069-205-220000-
/O.CON.KJKL.SV.W.0272.000000T0000Z-110822T0000Z/
ROWAN KY-FLEMING KY-
737 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN
FLEMING AND NORTHERN ROWAN COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM EDT...

AT 735 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS 
IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WALLINGFORD...OR 
11 MILES EAST OF FLEMINGSBURG...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  PLUMMERS LANDING...MUSES MILLS...SHARKEY...HILDA...WALTZ...
  MUNSON...HAYS CROSSING...CRANSTON...TRIPLETT...HALDEMAN AND GATES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER 
HOUR...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION 
MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR 
BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS 
WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3850 8359 3846 8357 3843 8357 3841 8348
      3839 8345 3840 8340 3832 8333 3822 8330
      3822 8369 3824 8370 3825 8372 3827 8371
      3827 8373 3850 8373 3853 8364
TIME...MOT...LOC 2336Z 290DEG 25KT 3840 8354
WIND...HAIL 60MPH <.50IN

$$

ABE

967 
WWUS53 KJKL 212355
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
755 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

KYC069-205-220006-
/O.EXP.KJKL.SV.W.0272.000000T0000Z-110822T0000Z/
ROWAN KY-FLEMING KY-
755 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN FLEMING AND NORTHERN
ROWAN COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 800 PM EDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA.

LAT...LON 3850 8359 3846 8357 3843 8357 3841 8348
      3839 8345 3840 8340 3832 8333 3822 8330
      3822 8369 3824 8370 3825 8372 3827 8371
      3827 8373 3850 8373 3853 8364
TIME...MOT...LOC 2356Z 290DEG 25KT 3835 8337

$$

ABE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
400 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...UPDATED

17Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT ORIGINALLY EXPECTED TO BE
WORKING ITS WAY THRU THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON STILL HUNG UP NORTH OF
THE OH RIVER. ALOFT...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER ERN CANADA
DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY CONTINUES TO MIGRATE
SLOWLY TOWARDS THE EAST WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COUPLED WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS OVER THE WRN CONUS. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROF ARE INTERACTING WITH THE FRONT TO OUR
NORTH...SPARKING SCATTERED TSTORMS OVER SRN/CENTRAL OH. AMPLE
INSTABILITY HAS REDEVELOPED OVER OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER...COUPLED WITH A WEAK LOW LEVEL CAP EVIDENT IN
THE SHORT RANGE MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS HAS LIMITED ANY DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON TO JUST A BROKEN LAYER OF STRATOCU OVER ERN KY.

THE FCST THRU TONIGHT REMAINS A CHALLENGE WITH THE COLD FRONT NOW
EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU THE CWA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED. IN ADDITION...THE ONLY
AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO THE LOWEST
LEVELS WHILE THE GUIDANCE INDICATES HEIGHTS RISING...RESULTING IN A
STRONGER CAP DEVELOPING THRU THE LOWER/MID LEVELS OVERNIGHT. WITH
THAT...THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY TSTORMS LOOKS TO BE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING OVER OUR NRN COUNTIES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
MT PARKWAY...CLOSER TO WHERE THE BETTER FORCING AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT CURRENTLY RESIDES. AS THE UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO
THE EAST...THE FROPA OVERNIGHT WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN LITTLE MORE
THAN A WIND SHIFT COUPLED WITH DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA. NONETHELESS...HAVE CONTINUE TO CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT TO GO WITH THE OBLIGATORY PATCHY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG
HOWEVER...THIS MAY BE CURTAILED SOMEWHAT BY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS IN
LIEU OF RAIN.

TRANSITORY SFC HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO MIGRATE THRU THE OHIO VALLEY IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH
PSEUDO RIDGING OVERHEAD IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROF LIFTING
TOWARDS THE NERN CONUS. DRIER AIR WILL SET THE STAGE FOR CLEAR SKIES
AND COOLER TEMPS ON MONDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN AT LEAST PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING AROUND THE VALLEYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO EASE OFF
TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...SETTING UP A LIMITED RETURN FLOW OF LOW
LEVEL GOMEX MOISTURE ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPS TO ROUND OUT THE
PERIOD.

.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...UPDATED

ASIDE FROM MINOR TIMING AND STRENGTH DETAILS OF THE WAVES PASSING
BETWEEN THE SEMI-PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
TROUGHING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ALOFT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS THE MAIN WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY IN THE FAST FLOW...ON WEDNESDAY...HAS BEEN LOOKING
INCREASINGLY WEAK. IT APPEARS THAT THE LARGER LOW TRACKING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY WILL BE SAPPING ITS STRENGTH.
NEVERTHELESS...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH WHILE THE GEM IS LAGGING BY ABOUT 6 HOURS. THIS APPEARS TO
ALSO BE AFFECTING ITS SOLUTION FOR IRENE...PULLING HER EAST AND
NORTH QUICKER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE THROWN OUT
THE GEM FOR THIS PACKAGE. THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST...ONCE THE
GREAT LAKES TROUGH SLIPS EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WILL
FOCUS ON THE MOVEMENT OF IRENE AND HER INTERACTION WITH THE
WESTERLIES OVER THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE QUITE
SIMILAR WITH THEIR UPPER PATTERNS FOR THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM...WILL
YIELD TO THE EXPERTISE OUT OF THE NHC AND HPC FOR SPECIFIC WEATHER
DETAILS. FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST A GENERAL BLEND OF THE
NAM12...GFS AND ECMWF DETAILS WERE FOLLOWED.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING ON OVER EAST
KENTUCKY FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OR SO AS THE WINNOWING COLD FRONT SLOWLY
SETTLES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL NOT CLEAR
THE AREA AND MAY PROVIDE A...DIURNALLY ENHANCED...THREAT FOR
CONVECTION THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART DRY WEATHER CAN BE ANTICIPATED. THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE
COMPLICATED FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE REMNANTS OF IRENE MAY BRUSH INTO
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES OR MORE LIKELY ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION ON
THE WESTERN SLOPE OF THE APPALACHIANS. FOR NOW...HAVE TAKEN THE PATH
OF LEAST REGRETS AND LEFT IN LOW TO MID RANGE CHANCE POPS FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE CWA WITH SOME MINOR DIURNAL ENHANCEMENTS.

HAVE FOLLOWED THE HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES...FOR THE MOST
PART...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS EARLY IN THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR
TERRAIN DRAINAGE AT NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...HAVE ENDED UP ON THE LOW
SIDE OF MEX GUIDANCE AGAIN...BUT FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHAT HPC PUT OUT
THERE...PARTICULARLY OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/

16Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT STILL DRAPED ALONG AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. SCT CU AROUND 3KFT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY PERIODICALLY RESULT IN BKN MVFR CIGS AT ANY
OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS
WAY SOUTH ACROSS KY BRINGING SCT TSTMS THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING
WITH BETTER CHANCES IN THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS BETWEEN 5
AND 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE NW AND
EVENTUALLY TO THE NORTH LATE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER 20Z ALONG WITH TEMPO MVFR
IN/AROUND ANY TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A FAIR DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SHRA OR FOR FOG/STRATUS TO DEVELOP. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A
LOW STRATUS EVENT OVERNIGHT WITH THE WORST IMPACTS ON THE RIDGES
WHERE CIGS COULD DIP INTO IFR OR WORSE TOWARDS DAWN. IN ANY
CASE...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO RETURN ON MONDAY BRINGING CLEARING
SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...MB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
413 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-222315-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
413 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY
NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...FROM TIME TO TIME...WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

MB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
700 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

KYZ044-212345-
FLEMING-
700 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTY THROUGH 745
PM EDT SUNDAY EVENING...

   FLEMING.

AT 700 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR COWAN...OR 9
MILES SOUTHWEST OF FLEMINGSBURG...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...PECKS RIDGE
AROUND 705 PM EDT...TILTON AROUND 710 PM EDT...POPLAR PLAINS AROUND
715 PM EDT...GODDARD AROUND 720 PM EDT...PLUMMERS LANDING AROUND 725
PM EDT...

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH BRIEF RAINFALL RATES
OF UP TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...AND
OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IN THESE AREAS.

ABE